Missouri football vs Texas A&M scouting report, score prediction for Tigers’ top-5 home test
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The CFP committee made the situation in Columbia clear: Missouri football needs to win out, and the Tigers likely need some help beyond that for a playoff berth.
Missouri checked in at No. 22 in the initial College Football Playoff committee rankings on Tuesday, which is lower than the Tigers’ ranking in both major national polls and well outside the projected 12-team field.
Mizzou (6-2, 2-2 SEC) faces a must-win, four-game November slate that begins with Texas A&M on Saturday in Columbia. The Aggies were the No. 3 team in the CFP rankings, making Mike Elko’s group the top-ranked team in the SEC.
Texas A&M (8-0, 5-0) is undefeated through eight and has looked like one of the most complete, top-to-bottom squads in the country. The Aggies beat Missouri 41-10 last season in College Station, and the challenges are stacked against the Tigers to get revenge this season.
Here is what you need to know about Texas A&M before the Aggies arrive in Columbia:
What has made Marcel Reed productive as Texas A&M QB?
Marcel Reed has emerged as a Heisman Trophy candidate for the unbeaten Aggies, a little more than a year after Drinkwitz (incorrectly, at the time) predicted he would start because he felt Texas A&M offensive coordinator Collin Klein had designed the system to fit him.
Mizzou coach Eli Drinkwitz joked about being early to Reed’s bandwagon. His predictions are showing up now.
Reed is a highly efficient scrambler and currently ranks as the SEC’s best at avoiding sacks. The protection in front of him has been elite, but even when it gets through, he rarely ends up on his back.
He has been sacked twice in eight games as pressure only gets through on about 25% of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. Only 7.8% of those pressures turn to sacks — the lowest rate in the conference among starters.
The QB is vastly improved as a passer. He still has a tendency to toss an interceptable ball from time to time, but he’s extremely sharp in the short- to mid-range passing game and has made the most of better talent at the skill positions this season.
“He’s a really good player. Has really good playmakers around him,” Mizzou safety Jalen Catalon said. “So, it’s gonna be a really good game.”
Aggies’ third-down defense is nation’s best
The eight teams that have faced Texas A&M this season have moved the chains on third downs on 22.2% of their chances. That is frighteningly low.
It’s not dumb luck. Elko, as Drinkwitz puts it, is highly adept at adjusting and tossing in unexpected wrinkles in his designs. Let the Mizzou coach explain:
“It’s really a cat-and-mouse game. He does a really good job of setting up tendencies, too,” Drinkwitz said. “So, last year, going into the Arkansas game, there was one player who had not blitzed the entire five-game package, and so you would just say, ‘hey, that’s the one guy that’s always going to drop out in coverage, so we’ll account for everybody else.’ And then the first third down versus Arkansas, he coffee-housed him, where he acted like he was going to drop, and then blitzed for a sack. So, (Elko has) got a really good feel for how to attack you.”
Now, Mizzou is going to be running out a true freshman QB in Matt Zollers against Texas A&M. His first collegiate start comes against the best team in the country at getting offenses off the field.
That’s quite the test coming for the rookie — and the O-line in front of him.
“They walk guys up on the line of scrimmage, they’ll drop guys out. They’ll show (pressure) on one side and maybe bring pressure from another,” Mizzou center Connor Tollison said. “So, our best bet is to just try to stay out of third-and-long.”
The stars: Electric WR duo; DE Cashius Howell
Part of Reed’s improved play are the skill players put around him. He’s getting time to throw in the pocket, and transfer wideouts KC Concepcion (NC State) and Mario Craver (Mississippi State) are giving him reliable, explosive options downfield.
The duo has combined for 1,261 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns this season. Concepcion has added a pair of kick-return touchdowns. Craver might be the fastest player in the SEC.
Reed’s scrambling ability is going to accentuate the test of defending the receivers. The Tigers have done well at stopping mobile quarterbacks, holding four of the nation’s top-40 rushing QBs to a combined 31 rushing yards this season.
But this is perhaps the most productive wide receiver tandem Mizzou has faced so far, and that’s going to test some coverage discipline in the secondary.
On the other side of the ball, success for Mizzou likely depends on how often you hear the name Cashius Howell.
The Kansas City native and Bowling Green transfer edge rusher leads the nation in sacks (10) and the SEC in QB pressures per game (4.25).
“Complete whiff on me for us not to try to take him out of high school,” Drinkwitz said. “He went to Bowling Green and had a heck of a career and then transferred to A&M, and (I) really regret that we didn’t do a better job evaluating that. He’s a dominant football player in this league.”
Score prediction: Texas A&M 28, Missouri 17
If Missouri pulls out an upset here, it will make for a remarkable story.
Facing a defense this multiple, this aggressive, this good at getting teams off the field on third down? All while running a true freshman quarterback? The odds do not favor MU.
Missouri’s defense — especially its front — is more than good enough to keep this competitive. Zollers is more than talented enough to lead Mizzou on scoring drives.
But is it all sustainable for four full quarters?
Because this Texas A&M team won’t let up. The Aggies trailed at halftime at LSU and signed Brian Kelly’s Baton Rouge eviction notice with 35 unanswered points.
We’d love to pick an upset, but that’s not rooted in the reality of the challenge that the Tigers are up against. We say MU holds its own, but Texas A&M has the quality to stay unbeaten.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Score prediction, scouting report for Missouri vs Texas A&M
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