Miami vs. Ohio State prediction, odds, pick for CFP quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl

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The College Football Playoff moves to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve at the Cotton Bowl, as Miami faces off against Ohio State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Miami-Ohio State CFP quarterfinal at the Cotton Bowl prediction and pick.

Miami is 11-2 on the season. They opened up 5-0, with wins over Notre Dame, South Florida, and Florida State. They would then lose a three-point game to Louisville at home. After a dominating win over Stanford, the team took another loss, falling to SMU 26-20. Since then, Miami has won five straight, with a dominating win over Pitt 38-7 to close out the regular season. They were tied for the second spot in the conference with SMU, Pitt, Georgia Tech, and Duke, but lost the tiebreaker to Duke, who went on to win the ACC. Still, they secured a berth in the CFP and took a 10-3 victory over Texas A&M in the first round.

Meanwhile, Ohio State had a great season. They finished the regular season 12-0, but did not face a ton of competition. The first game of the year was a 14-7 win over Texas, and they would not face a ranked team again until the win over Illinois. While the team also defeated Penn State, it was after the Nittany Lions had fallen apart. The next-ranked team the Buckeyes faced was Michigan, the last week of the regular season. Ohio State took the 27-9 win. They would go on to play in the Big Ten title game, but lost to Indiana 13-10. They still earned the second seed in the College Football Playoff and got the first-round bye.

These two last faced off in 2011, with Miami taking the 24-6 win. Ohio State won in 2010, but the win was later vacated. Ohio State leads the series 3-2, with one of the wins being the vacated game. The most famous of the two games was the 2003 Fiesta Bowl, which decided the national champion as Miami was ranked number one, and Ohio State number two. With the help of a pass interference call in the first overtime, Ohio State took the 31-24 victory in double-overtime to claim the national title.

College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Miami vs. Ohio State Odds

Miami: +9.5 (-110)

Ohio State: -9.5 (-110)

Over: 41.5 (-112)

Under: 41.5 (-108)

Miami vs. Ohio State Key Injuries

Miami- LB Mohamed Toure (Probable), CB Damari Brown (Questionable), WR Daylyn Upshaw (Doubtful), DB Jakobe Thomas (Probable), DB Zechariah Pyser (Probable), DL: Ahmad Moten Sr. (Probable), WR Tony Johnson (Questionable), WR Chance Robinson (Questionable), TE Dylan Reiman (Out), TE Jackson Carver (Out)

Ohio State- WR Jeremiah Smith (Probable), RG, Tegra Tshabola (Out), WR Quincy Porter (Questionable), DL Logan George (Out), S Malik Hartford (Out)

Miami vs. Ohio State Betting Trends

– Miami is 8-5 against the spread this year, but 3-2 on the road. They have not played at a neutral site.

– Ohio State is 10-3 against the spread. They are 0-1 at a neutral site and 4-1 on the road.

– When an underdog, Miami has covered in both times being an underdog, winning over Notre Dame to open the season and Texas A&M last time out.

– Ohio State has been a favorite in every game this year, but is 2-1 against the spread when the spread is under ten points.

– The under has been the right side for Miami games in eight of 11 matchups, but is just 4-3 in the last six games.

– The over has hit in just four of 13 games for Ohio State, and has not hit in the last three games. It has also not hit when the other team is ranked.

Keys to Miami vs. Ohio State Matchup

The key more Miami in this game is to get the passing game going. The offense has been one of the top in FBS this year. They are 26th in points per game while sitting 42nd in yards per game. The Hurricanes are not running great, sitting 71st in the running department, but they are 33rd in passing. Carson Beck has been a star for the Miami offense this year. He has completed 277 of 372 passes this year, good for a 74.75 percent completion. He has thrown 26 touchdowns while throwing just ten interceptions. Beck has also found the endzone once on the ground. The Miami quarterback faced a difficult task last time out. Against Texas A&M, he completed 14 of 20 passes, but for just 103 yards. Still, he found the end zone, which was enough to get them the win.

Meanwhile, Ohio State is the best defense in the nation. They allow just 8.8 points per game, which is the best in FBS. They are also first in yards against. Further, the team is fifth against the run and first against the pass. A major player in the pass defense is Jim Thorpe Award winner Caleb Downs. Downs was tied for third on the team with 60 tackles while also having a sack. Further, he has a pass breakup and two interceptions on the season.

Miami also needs to stop the Ohio State offense. Ohio State is 21st in points per game while sitting 28th in yards per game. The running game has not been great this year as they have replaced Quinshon Judkins and TreVeon Henderson. Bo Jackson has run for 1,035 yards, but both running backs ran for over 1,00 yards last year. Still, Julian Sayin has stepped up. Sayin was a Heisman Trophy Finalist due to his efforts. He was great this year, passing for 3,323 yards and 31 touchdowns. He has been picked off just six times. Sayin is coming off a rough game, though, throwing just 258 yards, with a touchdown and a pick against Indiana.

Moreover, the Miami defense has been stellar this year. They are fourth in opponent points per game while sitting tenth in opponent yards per game. They are sixth against the run while sitting 36th against the pass. Defensive back Jakobe Thomas will be the key player for Miami in this game. He is second on the team in tackles with 57. He also has 3.5 sacks, four pass breakups, four interceptions with a touchdown, two forced fumbles, and two fumble recoveries. If Miami is going to win this game, it starts on defense.

Miami vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick

This is going to be a defensive battle. Miami is one of the best defensive units in the nation, but so is Ohio State. Miami has allowed over 21 points just four times this year, going 2-2 in those games. Meanwhile, they have not allowed more than 17 points in each of the last five games. Ohio State has yet to allow more than 16 points in a game. Further, they have two shutouts and allowed less than 14 points in all but two games.

The Buckeyes have scored well this year, but when playing a solid defense, it has not been the same. They have faced just two great defensive units this year. Texas held them to 14, and Indiana held them to 10. Michigan also held them to 27. The best play on this game is on the total, but with the low total, expect it to be close.

Final Miami vs. Ohio State Prediction and Pick: Miami +9.5 (-110) and under 41.5 (-108)

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