ESPN SP+ predicts the final score of Alabama football vs LSU in Week 11

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Alabama football is back from its bye week and deep in preparation for the LSU Tigers, who visit Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 11 SEC play Saturday.

The Crimson Tide (7-1 overall, 5-0 SEC) came from behind in the final two-plus minutes to rally past South Carolina, 29-22, on Oct. 25. Ty Simpson was clutch for Alabama, which tied the game on a 4-yard touchdown pass to Germie Bernard and a subsequent pass to Josh Cuevas for the two-point conversion with 2:16 left.

Deontae Lawson forced LaNorris Sellers to fumble, and Bernard gave Alabama the lead on a 25-yard touchdown run with 34 seconds to play as the Tide escaped for their seventh straight victory. Simpson was 24 of 43 for 253 yards and two touchdowns.

LSU (5-3, 2-4) is coming off a bye and fell to Texas A&M, 42-25, at Tiger Stadium on Oct. 25. After losing three of four games following a 4-0 start, LSU fired Brian Kelly and named Frank Wilson interim coach.

Alabama is ranked No. 4 in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll and CFP rankings; LSU fell out of the top 25 polls after its loss to Texas A&M.

Will Alabama avoid potential LSU upset? ESPN SP+ makes prediction

Ahead of Alabama-LSU, ESPN’s Bill Connelly predicted who will win using his popular SP+ metrics. Connelly has coach Kalen DeBoer’s Crimson Tide winning by nine points over LSU, which closely mirrors what the oddsmakers are saying.

Connelly’s final score prediction: Alabama 30, LSU 21.

He gives the Crimson Tide a win probability of 71%.

Alabama is seeking its third straight win over LSU. The Tide have won 12 of the past 14 meetings dating back to the 2012 BCS National Championship Game in New Orleans.

Last year, Alabama routed LSU, 42-13, in Tiger Stadium. The Crimson Tide lead the all-time series vs. the Tigers, 57-27-5, including a 26-17-2 record at home.

Alabama football strength of schedule drops in ESPN SP+ rankings

In the latest ESPN SP+ metrics, Alabama’s strength of schedule fell five spots from two weeks ago. The metrics give the Crimson Tide the nation’s 10th best strength of schedule, one spot behind Oklahoma State and one spot ahead of Kentucky.

Alabama also dropped one spot to No. 10 in the overall SP+ ratings, one spot behind Ole Miss, and one spot ahead of the Georgia Bulldogs, who Alabama beat 24-21 on Sept. 27 in Athens.

To break down the numbers by units, SP+ gives Alabama a 36.6 rating on offense (No. 15 nationally), and a 17.1 rating on defense (No. 14). LSU is No. 26 in SP+ with an overall rating of 13.3. The Bayou Bengals’ offense has a 30.3 rating (No. 54 nationally), and a 17.0 rating defensively (No. 12).

What are ESPN SP+ rankings?

According to Connelly, SP+ is “simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”

“SP+ is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does,” he adds.

Alabama football vs. LSU start time, TV channel in Week 11

Kickoff for Alabama-LSU is listed as 6:30 p.m. CT. The game will be televised on ABC.

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU, 6:30 p.m., ABC
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m., ABC
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois, 1 p.m., ESPN+
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn, TBA

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This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football vs LSU score prediction from ESPN SP+

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