Alabama vs. Indiana prediction, odds, pick for CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl

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Alabama is looking for its 19th national championship, but it has to face Indiana in the CFP Quarterfinal, as the Hooisers look for their first title. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an Alabama-Indiana CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl prediction and pick.

Alabama enters the game at 11-3 on the season. They opened up with a loss to Florida State, 31-17, before going on a long win streak. They won eight straight games, including victories over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. The winning streak would come to an end with a two-point loss to Oklahoma. They finished the regular season with a win over Eastern Illinois and then a seven-point victory over Auburn. They played in the SEC Championship game and got dominated by Georgia. The Tide would lose the game 28-7. Alabama rebounded from the SEC Championship loss with a 34-24 win over Oklahoma to advance in the College Football Playoff, now facing Indiana.

Meanwhile, Indiana is the only undefeated team left in the nation. They are 13-0 on the season, with a 12-0 regular season record. They struggled some to open the season, winning just 27-14 over Old Dominion. Since then, they have been solid, but have had some hiccups. They won by just five over Iowa on the road and by just three over Penn State on the road. Still, Indiana was able to take the 13-10 win over Ohio State to win the Big Ten Championship. This gave them the top seed in the College Football Playoff and a first-round bye.

Alabama and Indiana have never faced off before. Still, Alabama is 10-5 in CFP games, while Indiana is 0-1 overall.

College Football betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.

Alabama vs. Indiana Odds

Alabama: +7 (-108)

Indiana: -7 (-112)

Over: 48.5 (-105)

Under: 48.5 (-115)

Alabama vs. Indiana Key Injuries

Alabama- DE LT Overton (Questionable), DL Tim Keenan (Probable), RB Kevin Riley (Questionable), WR Derek Meadows (Out), TE Danny Lewis Jr. (Out), WR Jalen Hale (Out), TE Jack Sammarco (Out), WR Jalen Hale (Out)

Indiana- DE Stephen Daley (Out), RB Lee Beeber Jr. (Out), WR Omar Cooper Jr. (Questionable), K Brendan Franke (Questionable), LB Amari Kamara (Questionable)

Alabama vs. Indiana Betting Trends

– Alabama is 9-5 against the spread this year, and 3-3 on the road. They have not played in a neutral-site game this year.

– Indiana is 8-5 against the spread this year. They are 3-2 on the road and 1-0 at a neutral site.

– When an underdog, Alabama has covered in two of three games. They have won both games they have covered as an underdog.

– When the favorite, Indiana, is 6-5 against the spread.

– The under has been the right side for Alabama games in eight of 14 matchups. The game against Oklahoma was the first time the over hit in six games.

– The over has hit seven times in the 13 games for Indiana this year, but just once in the last four games.

Keys to Alabama vs. Indiana Matchup

Ty Simpson is the key to the game for Alabama. The Alabama offense is 35th in the nation in points per game and 80th in yards per game this year. They have been horrible on the ground, ranking 120th. Even with Jam Miller back against Oklahoma, he ran seven times for just 11 yards. Meanwhile, the passing game has been great, sitting 22nd in the nation in passing yards per game. Simpson has led the offense this year. The quarterback has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 3,500 yards. He has also thrown 28 touchdowns and been intercepted just five times. He also has two touchdowns on the ground. Simpson was much better against Oklahoma than he was at the end of the season. He passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Still, he was sacked four times in the game

Concurrently, the Indiana defense has been stellar this year and is one of the best in the nation. They are third in the nation in opponent points per game and third in opponent yards per game. They are third against the run and 22nd against the pass. Regardless, the Alabama offense is all about the pass, and Indiana needs to get pressure on Simpson. Rolijah Hardy is going to be a major factor with Stephen Daley out for this game. He has 87 tackles, plus eight sacks, and four pass breakups.

Indiana needs to be strong on the ground in this game. They are fourth in points per game while sitting 12th in yards per game. They are also 27th in the run and 50th in the pass. Fernando Mendoza has been great, leading to his Heiman victory, but he is not the key in this game. The key is the running game. Roman Hemby has been fantastic with 918 yards and six touchdowns. Also, Kaelon Black has run for 799 yards and seven scores. Mendoza also has been solid on the ground, with 240 yards and six scores.

The Alabama defense has been stellar this season. They are 15th in opponent points per game and 14th in opponent yards per game. They have been much better against the pass, sitting 15th in opponent passing yards per game. Still, the team is 31st in opponent rushing yards per game. Justin Jefferson leads the team in tackles and tackles for a loss this year, while also forcing a fumble, breaking up five passes, and having an interception. He is great at making disruptive plays, and Alabama will rely on those in this game.

Alabama vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick

Alabama has been great this year, but they are one-dimensional. They average 270.2 yards per game in the pass, but just 97.9 game in the run. They are also 116th in the number of run plays this year. Alabama has struggled heavily to run the ball this year and has little chance to run it well against Indiana. Still, the offense has been solid, as has the defense against the pass. This game will come down to Ty Simspson against Fernando Mendoza. This is the same as the Heisman race at one point in the year. Mendoza pulled away while Simpson moved to the back of the pack. That will be evident in this game, with an Indiana win.

Final Alabama vs. Indiana Prediction and Pick: Indiana -7 (-112) and Under 48.5 (-115)

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