ESPN predicts Alabama football's chances of beating No. 1 Indiana

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Alabama football is making its second New Year's Day trip to the Rose Bowl in three seasons. Coach Kalen DeBoer's Crimson Tide will face Curt Cignetti's top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals in Pasadena.

Alabama (11-3) is coming of a 34-24 win over the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round of the CFP on Dec. 19 in Norman. The Crimson Tide started the comeback by converting a fourth-and-2 from the Oklahoma 10-yard line when Ty Simpson hit Lotzeir Brooks for the Tide's first points.

Zabien Brown tied the game just before halftime with a 50-yard interception return for a touchdown off a John Mateer pass, and Simpson hit Brooks for a 30-yard strike to put Alabama in front 24-17 early in the third quarter. Conor Talty drilled two field goals, and Daniel Hill capped the scoring with a six-yard touchdown run with 7:24 left to cap off an improbable comeback.

Indiana (13-0) defeated the Ohio State Buckeyes, 13-10, in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 battle in the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 6 in Indianapolis. Heisman Trophy winner Francisco Mendoza was 15 of 23 for 222 yards and a touchdown, connecting with Charlie Becker for a crucial 33-yard pass and first down late in the game.

Alabama is the No. 9 seed in the College Football Playoff; Indiana is the No. 1 seed.

The winner will advance to the CFP semifinals at the Peach Bowl on Jan. 9 to face either No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1) or No. 5 Oregon (12-1), who meet in the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day (11 a.m. CT, ESPN).

Will Alabama football upset Indiana in the Rose Bowl? ESPN's prediction

While oddsmakers have Indiana as a touchdown favorite over Alabama, ESPN analytics, as always, has its own odds for the game.

ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college football power index and other variables, heavily favors the Hoosiers. It gives Indiana a 71.4% chance to win and Alabama a 28.6% chance.

The Crimson Tide are eighth in ESPN's FPI ratings. Alabama has a 20.3 overall rating. Indiana has a 28.9 rating that's No. 1 in ESPN's metrics.

Alabama football's updated odds of reaching CFP national championship

According to ESPN's FPI ratings entering the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff, Alabama's chances of reaching the national championship game on Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami are 12.6%, up from 6.3% entering the playoff.

The metrics give Alabama a 5.2% shot of winning the national title, up from 2.6% before its win over Oklahoma in Norman.

By contrast, Indiana is given a 40% chance to reach the national championship game and a 23.9% chance to win the title.

What is ESPN College Football Power Index (FPI)?

ESPN explains:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

Alabama football vs. Indiana start time, TV information for Rose Bowl

Kickoff for Alabama-Indiana is 3 p.m. CT Thursday. The game will be televised on ESPN. Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit will have the call of the game from the broadcast booth at the Rose Bowl. Holly Rowe and Kris Budden will report from the sidelines.

Additionally, the Crimson Tide Sports Network radio feed of the game featuring Chris Stewart and Tyler Watts can be heard on SEC Network, which will feature a "SkyCast" presentation of the game.

Alabama football schedule 2025

All start times Central.

  • Aug. 30: at Florida State (L, 31-17)
  • Sept. 6: vs. UL Monroe (W, 73-0)
  • Sept. 13: vs. Wisconsin (W, 38-14)
  • Sept. 27: at Georgia (W, 24-21)
  • Oct. 4: vs. Vanderbilt (W, 30-14)
  • Oct. 11: at Missouri (W, 27-24)
  • Oct. 18: vs. Tennessee (W, 37-20)
  • Oct. 25: at South Carolina (W, 29-22)
  • Nov. 8: vs. LSU (W, 20-9)
  • Nov. 15: vs. Oklahoma (L, 23-21)
  • Nov. 22 vs. Eastern Illinois (W, 56-0)
  • Nov. 29: at Auburn (W, 27-20)
  • Dec. 6: vs. Georgia (L, 28-7)
  • Dec. 19: at Oklahoma — CFP first round (W, 34-24)
  • Jan. 1: vs. Indiana — CFP quarterfinals at Rose Bowl, 3 p.m.

Follow us at @RollTideWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook, for ongoing coverage of Alabama Crimson Tide news, notes and opinions.

This article originally appeared on Roll Tide Wire: Alabama football odds of beating Indiana in CFP Rose Bowl, per ESPN

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos