“Ain’t Gonna Cut It”: Stephen A. Smith Fires Notre Dame Playoff Reality Check After Paul Finebaum’s Miami Warning
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When CJ Carr’s final pass from the 9-yard line fell incomplete in the LaVell Edwards Stadium end zone on Saturday night, sealing No. 8 BYU’s 28-24 upset over No. 2 Notre Dame, the immediate rankings damage looked surprisingly mild.
Thanks to a chaotic Week 7 that also saw top-ranked Georgia fall to Auburn, the Fighting Irish slid only two spots, to No. 4, in Sunday’s AP Top 25. The actual playoff math in South Bend, however, will be much less forgiving, according to Stephen A. Smith and Paul Finebaum.
“In Miami. You better win that d–n game,” Stephen A Smith said on ESPN’s First Take on October 19. “You lost them last year. You better not lose again this year. You better beat Miami on your home turf.”
Notre Dame has no conference title game to make up ground late in the season, so another loss leaves the Irish less room to convince the selection committee they belong.
To Finebaum, Saturday night in Provo settled half of the equation: undefeated BYU, now No. 2 in the country, is heading to the College Football Playoff. Notre Dame’s status is suddenly murky.
“We were talking about Notre Dame as possibly a national championship contender,” Finebaum said. “But if you look at the schedule, they have to deal with Miami, the number one team in the country, in a couple of weeks.”
Smith took it a step further, largely because he had already delivered this exact warning to the Irish players in person two months ago.
Back in December, Smith was one of the loudest critics of Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua’s complaints about the ACC lobbying for Miami during the 2025 selection process. Those complaints followed Notre Dame’s omission from the 12-team field, even though an agreement taking effect this season guarantees the Irish a spot whenever they finish inside the top 12. Despite that criticism, head coach Marcus Freeman invited Smith to South Bend on Aug. 11.
Smith toured the program’s new Shields Family Hall and spoke directly to the players during fall camp. During that team meeting, he didn’t sugarcoat the pitfalls: an independent schedule with rebuilding Big Ten opponents and a light ACC slate.
He recalled telling the players that without a conference title game to play in December, the team’s entire season came down to three dates: at BYU on Oct. 17, home against Miami on Nov. 7, and home against No. 23 SMU on Nov. 21, and that they had to win at least two of them.
“You better beat BYU. And you didn’t get it done,” Stephen A Smith said. “You were down 11 in the half. You came back, but you ultimately didn’t close the deal. So now that you lost to BYU, you better not lose to Miami. I’m sorry. I don’t know if you’re a top-12 team if you lose to Miami.”
Notre Dame’s six victories have come against Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, Stanford, Wisconsin (41-13 at Lambeau Field in Week 1), and North Carolina (37-26).
“Your two significant wins are against Wisconsin and North Carolina,” Smith said. “That ain’t gonna cut it. You need more than that.”
Smith reiterated his respect for Freeman as one of the top coaches in the country, and he even admitted he still has his own questions about whether Miami truly deserves to be the No. 1 team in the nation. None of that changes the arithmetic waiting for Notre Dame in three weeks.
“I don’t think they’re going back to the playoffs, which is just monster news for everyone in college football,” Finebaum said.
Finishing No. 12 or higher locks the Irish into the bracket, but a 10-2 finish with losses to the only two top-10 opponents on the schedule would make staying inside that cutoff a massive gamble.
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