Alabama and Notre Dame CFP Nightmare Scenarios If This Happens
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The latest round of College Football Playoff rankings just came out, and the committee all but set in stone the nightmare scenarios for both Notre Dame and Alabama.
One of them will be fine if both don’t lose again, but there’s a problem.
BYU.
Alabama and Notre Dame: What Could Trigger Their CFP Nightmare Scenarios
There weren’t any massive changes in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
1 Ohio State, 2 Indiana, 3 Texas A&M, 4 Georgia, 5 Texas Tech, 6, Oregon, 7 Ole Miss, 8 Oklahoma.
That’s all fine. The top seven of those eight of those are mortal locks, especially if they all win their final games of the regular season.
Oklahoma is the outlier as the highest ranked two-loss team. If LSU pulls off the shocker, the Sooners would drop like a rock, cheerfully ignore this entire article, and all apologies for wasting your time. But assuming Oklahoma wins …
It’s been a given over the last few weeks that Notre Dame is comfortable. It’s nestled in at the nine, and that seems like enough of a buffer. The same goes for Alabama at the ten, considering the ACC champion and top-ranked Group of Five champion will take up 11 and 12.
Here’s the problem for both the Crimson Tide and the Fighting Irish. BYU can not win the Big 12 Championship, or else.
But don’t fret quite yet. There are several different ways that both Bama and Notre Dame are fine, but if you’re a fan of either one of those two schools, start rooting hard for Texas Tech – and this weekend, UCF – right now.
Alabama Has To Win SEC Championship to Be Safe in the CFP
Lose your conference championship, and all is okay – for everyone else
It’s not an official rule, because the CFP doesn’t have a slew of set-in-stone aspects to its ranking system, but as of last year, the committee has clearly stated that it won’t punish teams for losing in the conference championships.
Now, that doesn’t mean it won’t reward teams that win the conference title games, but it won’t hammer teams that lose – the CFP doesn’t want teams to try avoiding playing in a conference championship.
Last year, Penn State was No. 3 in the penultimate rankings, and it lost to No. 1 Oregon in the Big Ten championship. Penn State finished as fourth, the highest ranking it could be – but last year, that meant the 6 seed because the top four conference champions got the top four spots.
No. 2 Texas lost to No. 5 Georgia, and it finished No. 3 behind the Dawgs – and was the 5 seed.
So ….
First, DO NOT LOSE TO AUBURN
Do that, and you’re out, Bama.
Alabama, win the SEC Championship, or else
Here’s the problem. No, Alabama wouldn’t be “punished” for losing the SEC Championship, but at No. 10, merely getting to the title game isn’t enough, if 11-1 BYU beats 11-1 Texas Tech for the Big 12 Championship.
If that happens, BYU would rocket up the rankings, and No. 5 Texas Tech would slip only as far as one spot behind BYU – there’s a backstop.
Alabama fans, root for …
BYU to lose to either UCF this weekend or to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship. Then you’re all set.
And, again, if LSU beats Oklahoma, all should be okay as long as Bama beats Auburn.
Or, Bama, beat Auburn, go to the SEC Championship,and win that, and boom. The Tide control their own destiny, unlike …
Notre Dame should be fine for the College Football Playoff, but …
Blast Stanford, root for LSU and Auburn, and start praying
Again, if Oklahoma loses, all should be fine.
If Alabama beats Auburn, it’s in the SEC Championship. If it wins that, it’s in. The problem is that even if Texas A&M loses to Texas, and/or Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, neither one is a lock to move on down past the Irish.
Anyone who’s ahead of Notre Dame in the penultimate rankings, and loses its conference championship, will still be ahead of the Irish in the final rankings, no matter what.
If Alabama wins the SEC Championship …
Uh oh. Bama would move up, the team it beats would stay ahead of the Irish, and then it would come down to …
Texas Tech has to beat BYU
If Alabama wins the SEC Championship, and BYU wins the Big 12 Championship, that’s it. If the recent round of rankings holds, Notre Dame is out, so …
Will BYU Make the College Football Playoff?
BYU, just win
If BYU beats UCF, it’s in the Big 12 Championship. If it beats 11-1 Texas Tech, then it’s in the College Football Playoff no matter what.
BYU, the pick is on your stick.
Related: College Football Playoff Rankings Week 14: Reaction to All 25 Teams
This story was originally published by College Football News on Nov 26, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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