Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The SEC has a heavyweight clash on their hands when #7 Alabama (4-0) goes to Starkville to take on #16 Mississippi State (4-0). Two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the country meet in Alabama's Keelon Russell and Mississippi State's Kamario Taylor. Both players have risen to the top 10 in the Heisman Trophy rankings and could improve their resume with a top-25 win this weekend.

Alabama has scored at least 45 points in all four games and ranks sixth in the country with 47.7 points per game. Keelon Russell has been terrific in the last two games (776 yards, 9 TDs) as Ryan Coleman-Williams (160 yards, 3 TDs) and Lotzeir Brooks (179 yards, 1 TD) are balling too. Alabama has held three of its four opponents to 18 or fewer points this season: East Carolina, Kentucky, and South Carolina. Alabama is coming off a 49-18 thrashing over South Carolina. The Tide forced two turnovers, held the Gamecocks LaNorris Sellers to 185 passing yards in a negative game script, and a 3-of-14 third-down mark. This week will be the toughest matchup of the season for Russell and Bama.

Kamario Taylor walks into Week 5 as one of the most hyped players in the country and rightfully so. Taylor led Mississippi State back from a 16-0 deficit at South Carolina (41-34 win), then trailed by 7 entering the fourth quarter last week against Missouri and came out on top (31-24 win). The Bulldogs have been exciting this season and with over 1,300 yards and 15 total touchdowns Taylor deserves the hype. However, Mississippi State does have Fluff Bothwell, who's put together three-straight games of 100-plus rushing yards, while Anthony Evans III has three games of 100-plus receiving yards, including the last two. This game sets up for a lot of points as all eyes are on the quarterbacks.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Notre Dame vs North Carolina

• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM Eastern
• Davis Wade Stadium
• City: Starkville, MS
• TV/Streaming: ABC

Game Odds for Alabama vs Mississippi State

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (-225), Mississippi State Bulldogs (+185)
• Spread: Alabama -6 (-108)
• Total: 60.5 points

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Bulldogs +6 and to win outright:

"Alabama has won 16 straight meetings versus Mississippi State and has won by 23, 24, 40, 41, and 31 points in the last 5 meetings. Alabama has also won by 23-plus in three-consecutive trips to Starkville! But guess what? Mississippi State has never had someone like Kamario Taylor at quarterback! And we’re in Starkville. Oh hell yeah, give Mississippi State on the spread and ML. Down 16 on the road in SEC play after 20 minutes and need a comeback? Too easy. Down 7 at home in the SEC entering the 4th quarter and need a comeback? Too easy. Show me a tough situation, and I’ll point to Kamario Taylor to solve it. The (Bull)dogs are barking."

#7 Alabama Crimson Tide

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2026 Record: 4-0 (2-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 47.7 (T-6th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 21.0 (T-62nd)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 46th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 6th

The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense:

The Alabama offense ranks tied-sixth with 47.7 points per game and at least 45 in all four. Three different rushers have at least three touchdowns scored for Bama and six different receivers scored as well. The Crimson Tide rank tied for 43rd with a 45.8% third-down percentage and a top 25 turnover margin. Ryan Coleman-Williams leads the Tide with 17 receptions, 333 yards, and three touchdowns and Daniel Hill in rushing with 225 yards and four touchdowns on 46 carries.

Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Keelon Russell

In the last two games, Keelon Russell has combined for nine touchdowns and no interceptions, to go along with 776 total yards and a 77.1% completion rate. He's on fire as Alabama's offense looks unstoppable. The Tide have scored at least 45 points in all four of his starts and ranks 24th in yards per game (471.5).

The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense:

The Alabama defense has held three of four opponents to 18 or fewer points to start the season. The Tide average 2.75 sacks per game, ranking tied for 27th and 11 overall through four games. Alabama is holding opponents to 280.7 yards per game (T-33rd). The biggest weakness of this Tide team is the secondary. Alabama ranks 88th in team passing efficiency defense and 95th in tackling, per PFF.

Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: LB Caleb Woodson

In his first season with Alabama, Caleb Woodson leads the team in tackles with 30 through four games and has two sacks on his resume. The former V-Tech Hokie had two sacks over three seasons entering this year, so he's off to a career-best start. Woodson had 72 and 57 tackles in the last two seasons. He will certainly surpass that number and already recorded 12 tackles in two games: versus Kentucky and South Carolina.

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#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs

Head Coach: Jeff Lebby
2026 Record: 4-0 (2-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 43.0 (15th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 20.0 (T-57th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 48th
2026 Remaining Strength of Schedule: 5th

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Offense:

Mississippi State's offense ranks fourth in the country at 533.2 total yards per game and has 109 first downs (5th)! The Bulldogs have put up 499, 393, and 479 yards over the past three games versus Missouri, South Carolina, and Minnesota. None of these three have been able to slow down the trio of Kamario Taylor, Fluff Bothwell, and Anthony Evans III.

Mississippi State Player to Watch on Offense: QB Kamario Taylor

Kamario Taylor is top five in the Heisman race and his case is growing by the day. Taylor has led Mississippi State to at least 31 points in all four games and at least three touchdowns in every game. Taylor has thrown for three or more touchdowns in all four games and ran for a score in one. He has 15 touchdowns to two interceptions on the year and over 1,300 yards. Taylor has been sacked seven times in the last three games, which has dropped his rushing numbers, but he's still a dual-threat with a cannon. The only negative is Taylor's thrown an interception in back-to-back games.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs Defense:

The Bulldogs defense has been really poor in pressure and that's led to 34 and 24 points allowed in the last two games. Per PFF, Mississippi State has the 130th-ranked pressure grades out of 138 teams, but are ranked 10th in coverage. Mississippi State will have to get some coverage sacks and limit Keelon Russell's deep shots. Mississippi State only had two sacks versus Missouri last week, but had 15 pass deflections!

Mississippi State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Jalen Smith

57 tackles last year was good enough for fifth-best on Mississippi State, but this year, Jalen Smith will shatter that number. Smith has 28 tackles through four games with eight tackles in three of those contests. He leads the team so far in tackles and is tied with one interception for the team lead in picks. Smith is still searching for his first-career sacks after spending last year with Mississippi State and two years with Tennessee before that.

Alabama and Mississippi State Stats, Betting Trends

• Alabama is 3-1 ATS and 4-0 to the Over
• Mississippi State is 4-0 ATS and 2-2 on the total
• Alabama is 4-5-1 ATS in the last 10 as a road favorite
• Alabama is 6-4 to the Over in the last 10 as a road favorite
• Mississippi State is 4-8-1 since 2023 as a home underdog
• Mississippi State is 9-4 to the Over since 2023 as a home underdog
• Alabama was 9-5-1 ATS last season and 9-6 to the Under
• Mississippi State was 8-5 ATS and 7-6 to the Over last season

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