Alabama vs. Oklahoma CFP prediction: UPDATED odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

The No. 11 Crimson Tide of Alabama travel to Norman to face the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners on Friday, December 19, in a first-round college football playoff game. This game offers Alabama a chance to avenge a narrow 23-21 home loss to the Sooners back in November, where turnovers and a missed field goal proved costly despite the Crimson Tide outgaining Oklahoma significantly in total yards.

The keys to the rematch will be Alabama's ability to protect the football against a stingy Oklahoma defense which leads the SEC in scoring defense and excels at forcing turnovers and stopping the run. The other key lies with the Sooners' offense. When John Mateer is not under duress, he has been dangerous. However, he often finds himself scrambling due to poor pass protection. That is a vulnerability Alabama's strong defensive front will look to exploit in what is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair.

The winner advances to face the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl.

Fun Fact: These schools first met on the gridiron in 1962. They met in the Orange Bowl that year and Alabama, under legendary coach Bear Bryant, won that first game, 17-0.

Lets dive into the schools, a few of the top players, and the stats that make up each side.

Game Details and How to watch Alabama vs. Oklahoma

• Date: Saturday, December 19, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM Eastern
• Site: Memorial Stadium
• City: Norman, OK
• TV/Streaming: ABC/ESPN

Game Odds for Alabama vs. Oklahoma

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide (-105), Oklahoma Sooners (-115)
• Spread: Oklahoma (-1.5)
• Total: 40.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Alabama Crimson Tide

Head Coach: Kalen DeBoer
2025 Record: 10-3 (7-1)
Offense Ranking: 26
Defense Ranking: 8
Strength of Schedule: 7

Alabama’s second season under Kalen DeBoer delivered a familiar-looking 10–3 record, but the underlying profile was shakier than the brand name suggests, with the Crimson Tide finishing with just 8.5 second order wins and an SP+ ranking of 13. The defense largely carried the operation, checking in at 8th nationally in SP+ and holding opponents to 4.82 yards per play, though cracks showed late against elite competition, most notably in losses to Oklahoma and Georgia. Offensively, Alabama was efficient enough (26th in Offensive SP+) but rarely explosive, ranking 88th in marginal explosiveness and 126th yards per rush while leaning heavily on methodical drive construction. That imbalance showed up in high-leverage moments, as the Tide struggled on third-and-short and were merely average finishing drives despite favorable field position. Taken together, Alabama remained a dangerous, well-coached SEC contender, but the metrics paint a team that won on discipline and defense rather than dominance, a noticeable step below the program’s recent championship standard.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Offense

Alabama’s offense finished 26th in Offensive SP+ and leaned heavily on efficiency rather than explosiveness, averaging 37.8 yards per drive (24th) and 2.83 points per drive (26th) despite a relatively modest 5.72 yards per play (69th). The rushing attack was a clear drag on the unit, ranking 84th in rushing success rate, 126th in yards per rush (4.2), and a jarring 133rd in yards per successful rush, even though the offensive line limited stuffs to a respectable 33rd nationally. By contrast, the passing game carried the load, finishing 20th in passing success rate, 27th in EPA per dropback, and 36th in adjusted net yards per attempt (9.4), while allowing pressure on just 1.8% of dropbacks (13th). Alabama also took care of the football, ranking third nationally in interception rate (1.1%) and posting a +7 turnover margin (24th). The issue was finishing against elite defenses, as the Crimson Tide ranked just 84th in standard-down success rate and 106th in standard-down marginal explosiveness, leaving the offense productive but rarely dominant when games tightened.

Alabama Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ty Simpson

Quarterback Ty Simpson started all 13 games and delivered a steady, volume-driven season, completing 64.3% of his throws for 3,268 yards with a 26–5 TD-INT line, with the Tide finishing 19th nationally in interception rate (1.1%) while ranking 36th in adjusted net yards per attempt (9.4). His efficiency profile was solid rather than spectacular, as Simpson posted a 45.4% passing success rate with 11.9 yards per completion and a 6.8 yards-per-dropback mark that reflected Alabama’s emphasis on ball control and situational execution. Pressure management was a mixed bag, with Simpson taking sacks on 5.5% of dropbacks and absorbing pressure on 19.2% of pressured plays, contributing to a middling 18.3% pressure-to-sack rate despite the line allowing pressure on just 1.8% of snaps. As a runner, Simpson added functional mobility with 244 rushing yards and two scores, generating a 48.2% rushing success rate and a strong 33.9% first-down rate, but his six fumbles (five lost) remained a clear efficiency leak. Overall, Simpson earned a 79.7 PFF passing grade and an 82.2 offensive grade, pairing above-average accuracy and decision-making with limited explosiveness, ultimately profiling as a stabilizing distributor rather than a ceiling-raising creator.

The Alabama Crimson Tide Defense

Alabama’s defense anchored the team’s profile, finishing 8th in Defensive SP+ while allowing just 4.82 yards per play (20th) and 1.47 points per drive (15th), a combination that kept games manageable even when the offense sputtered. The Tide were especially strong against the pass, ranking 32nd in passing success rate allowed, 17th in EPA per dropback, and an elite 1st nationally in limiting completions of 20+ yards (9.2%), with quarterbacks averaging only 13.1 yards per successful dropback (7th). Coverage structure mattered here, as Alabama allowed just 4.8 yards per dropback versus zone (3rd) while getting burned in man coverage at 8.5 yards per dropback (128th), reflecting a unit built to sit back and close space rather than chase. The pass rush was efficient but oddly constructed, pairing a strong 25.0% sacks-per-pressure rate (7th) with a low-pressure environment overall, as the defense ranked 119th in pressure rate and 135th in blitz rate. Alabama was rock solid against the run, finishing 12th in rushing success rate allowed and 30th in EPA per rush, while holding opponents to a 50.0% red-zone touchdown rate (13th) and a 34.7% overall third-down success rate (33rd).

Alabama Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Yhonzae Pierre

Outside linebacker Yhonzae Pierre emerged as one of Alabama’s most complete edge defenders, finishing with 54 tackles, 16 havoc plays, and a team-high 12.5 tackles for loss while adding six sacks across 13 games. His impact showed up on early downs as well, where he posted eight run stops and handled run fits cleanly with a 65.4% tackle-on-run rate and an 80.6% overall tackle efficiency. As a pass rusher, Pierre was consistently disruptive, generating 33 pressures on 188 rushes for a strong 17.6% pressure rate while creating eight sacks and forcing a fumble. He was particularly effective in money situations, logging a 25.4% third-down pressure rate and producing 30 first pressures despite a slightly longer 3.21-second average time to first contact that reflects power and pursuit rather than pure speed. 

Oklahoma Sooners

Head Coach: Brent Venables
2025 Record: 10-2
Offense Ranking: 49
Defense Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: 17

Oklahoma finished 10–2 (6–2) with an SP+ ranking of 12th, but the résumé slightly outkicked the underlying efficiency, as the Sooners’ second-order wins checked in at 8.8 (-1.2), reflecting a defense-driven profile that carried an inconsistent offense. Brent Venables’ defense was elite across the board, ranking 3rd in Defensive SP+, 2nd in defensive success rate (30.5%), 1st in rushing success rate allowed (28.0%), 6th in overall third-down defense (28.8%), and 1st in points per scoring opportunity allowed (2.98). Oklahoma’s pass rush was a defining strength, finishing 3rd in sacks per dropback (9.1%), 5th in sacks per pressure (26.6%), and 3rd nationally in overall Havoc rate (22.3%), allowing the Sooners to survive even when field position and turnover luck tilted against them. The offense lagged behind, ranking 49th in Offensive SP+, 86th in overall success rate (41.1%), 110th in rushing success rate, and 88th in points per drive, frequently putting pressure on the defense to win low-margin games. Still, Oklahoma stacked high-end wins — including road victories at Alabama and Tennessee — and enters bowl season with a Top 3 defense and a profile that remains dangerous despite its offensive ceiling.

The Oklahoma Sooners Offense

Oklahoma’s offense was the clear limiting factor on an otherwise elite team, finishing 49th in Offensive SP+ and producing a 10–2 record that slightly outpaced its underlying efficiency. The Sooners ranked just 86th in overall success rate (41.1%), 93rd in EPA per play (0.00), and 88th in points per drive (1.99), reflecting persistent issues sustaining drives and finishing possessions. The run game struggled badly, checking in 110th in rushing success rate, 117th in yards per rush (4.3), 120th in stuff rate, and 100th in yards before contact, consistently putting the offense behind schedule. Passing efficiency was only marginally better, with Oklahoma ranking 56th in passing success rate, 76th in EPA per dropback, 78th in yards per dropback, and 88th in adjusted net yards per attempt (7.7) while generating explosive completions on just 17.2% of throws (50th). Overall, the offense relied heavily on defensive field position and game control, operating more as a caretaker unit than a driver of wins and leaving Oklahoma heavily dependent on its Top 3 defense to close out tight games.

Oklahoma Player to Watch on Offense: QB John Mateer

QB John Mateer piloted Oklahoma’s offense for 11 starts, finishing with 2,578 passing yards on 62.1% accuracy (221-of-356) while posting a 12–10 TD–INT line and a 65.6 Total QBR. His efficiency profile was steady rather than explosive, averaging 6.6 yards per dropback and a 7.0 ANY/A, with a modest 43.0% success rate and a 5.3% sack rate that reflected solid pocket management despite frequent pressure. Mateer’s PFF grades underscored that balance, as he checked in with a 63.1 overall offensive grade, including a 59.8 passing grade and a slightly stronger 64.1 rushing grade that highlighted his value outside of structure. As a runner, he was a clear second-phase weapon, piling up 534 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 110 carries (4.85 YPC) with a 28.2% first-down rate, though 32.3% of his rushes went for zero or negative yards. Overall, Mateer functioned as a high-usage, dual-threat stabilizer whose legs elevated Oklahoma’s floor, even as inconsistent passing efficiency and turnover volume capped the offense’s ceiling.

The Oklahoma Sooners Defense

Oklahoma’s defense was the backbone of its 10–2 season, finishing 3rd in Defensive SP+ and driving a résumé that consistently outperformed an uneven offense. The Sooners were elite at creating negative plays, ranking 2nd in defensive success rate (30.5%), 2nd in EPA per play allowed (-0.15), 1st in rushing success rate allowed (28.0%), and 3rd in stuff rate, completely choking off early down efficiency. Venables’ front consistently wrecked passing games as well, finishing 3rd in sacks per dropback (9.1%), 5th in sacks per pressure (26.6%), 25th in pressure rate, and 3rd nationally in overall Havoc rate (22.3%). Situational dominance defined the unit, as Oklahoma ranked 1st in points per scoring opportunity allowed (2.98), 5th in red-zone TD rate allowed (39.3%), and 6th in overall third-down defense (28.8%), routinely flipping leverage late in drives. Even with modest turnover luck and heavy snap volume, the Sooners’ defense consistently controlled field position (7th in average defensive starting field position) and finished as one of the most complete, disruptive, and scheme-sound units in the country.

Oklahoma Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Taylor Wein

Taylor Wein helped pick up the slack for OU’s defense when fellow game wrecker R. Mason Thomas went down to injury. He started all 12 games while stacking 42 tackles with an excellent 85.7% tackle rate and handling a heavy run-defense workload (73.8% of tackles vs. the run). He was a consistent disruptor, posting 15 havoc plays, 13.0 tackles for loss, and 6.0 sacks, all while adding 10 run stops and a forced fumble to his box-score impact. As a pass rusher, Wein logged 225 rushes and produced 25 pressures (11.1% pressure rate), with 6 sacks and 5 sacks created, reaching his first pressure in just 2.56 seconds on average. His situational impact showed up on money downs as well, generating pressure on 13.6% of third downs and drawing a penalty, underscoring his ability to disrupt drives without selling out against the run. Taken together, Wein’s blend of volume, efficiency, and versatility made him a true every-down defensive end and a cornerstone piece of Oklahoma’s top-tier defensive front.
Alabama and Oklahoma team stats, betting trends

Alabama vs. Oklahoma: Team Stats and Betting Trends

• Alabama is 8-4-1 ATS this season
• Oklahoma is 6-5-1 ATS this season
• The OVER has cashed 5 times in Alabama's 13 games this season (5-8)
• The OVER has cashed just twice in Oklahoma's 12 games this season (2-10)

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): John Mateer UNDER 204.5 Passing Yards

As described above, Oklahoma QB John Mateer has failed to recreate the passing theatrics he posted last year at Wazzu, as SEC defenses have made life difficult for the mobile signal caller. Inaccuracy in the pocket and a penchant for poorly timed interceptions have been a real detriment to him, as he hasn’t recorded a passing grade of 59.0 or above since Week 4. With Mateer having failed to clear his 204.5 Passing Yardage mark in 5 of the last 7 games, including 138 vs. Alabama in Week 12, I think he goes Under 204.5 Passing Yards against a formidable Tide pass defense. 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Alabama and Oklahoma

• Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Oklahoma Sooners at +1.5.
• Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 40.5.

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