Alabama vs Oklahoma Prediction: CFP First Round Preview
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It’s hard to argue with the names Alabama and Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff.
These two were mainstays throughout the four-team era, but they only met in the 2018 Orange Bowl, a 45-34 Crimson Tide win.
And if it seems like they two titans of the sport have a long, rich history, nope. This is just the ninth time they’ve met, with the first the 1963 Orange Bowl – a 17-0 Bama win – and the last …
Just about a month ago.
Alabama vs Oklahoma: College Football Playoff Preview and Pick
Oklahoma is one of the few programs that can claim to, for the most part, own Alabama. Of the schools that have faced the Tide a minimum of eight times, only three have a winning record against them.
Texas is 8-2-1 against the Tide, Notre Dame is 5-3, and in the middle, Oklahoma is 5-2-1, including a 24-3 victory last season that knocked Bama out of the CFP hunt, and that 23-21 win this year, that didn’t seem to have any bearing at all.
However, that win gave OU the credibility to be the top-ranked two-loss team in the CFP. That’s worth a home game against Alabama – and not Notre Dame.
Is this when the Crimson Tide start to look the part? They got rolled by Georgia in the SEC Championship, were meh against Auburn, and should’ve lost to South Carolina. Take the scrimmage against Eastern Illinois out of the equation, and they haven’t played well in two months.
Win in Norman, and none of that matters.
Give Texas credit for the win over Oklahoma, but Sooner quarterback John Mateer wasn’t right, seemingly coming back a bit too soon after getting hurt. It lost a tough fight against Ole Miss, but from the start of the season until the finish, the defense has been a bear.
And now it’s going for its first College Football Playoff win in four tries.
How To Watch Alabama vs Oklahoma
Date: Friday, December 19, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
TV: ABC/ESPN
Location: Memorial Stadium, Norman, OK
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Why Alabama Will Win
It was completely lost in the national narrative …
Alabama did everything but win that first game against Oklahoma.
Quarterback Ty Simpson threw for 326 yards, but all anyone seems to remember are the few key throws that he airmailed and the early tone-setting pick-six when it looked like the Tide was about to score.
On the other side, the Alabama defense played its best game of the season, at least against the real teams on the slate.
Oklahoma’s running game didn’t go anywhere, the offense generated just 212 yards, and it was the team’s worst performance of the year on third downs.
The Sooner offense doesn’t have the sharpest of passing games, the line doesn’t generate enough of a push for the ground attack, and this isn’t a team built to keep up in any sort of a shootout – one 33-27 win over Tennessee aside.
As long as Simpson and the Bama offense get off to a hot start, things should start to roll from there. However …
Why Oklahoma Will Win
You gained more rushing yards against Georgia in the SEC Championship than Alabama did.
The Bulldog defense was swarming, the Crimson Tide offense didn’t go anywhere – gaining a season-low 209 yards – and the offensive line was overwhelmed for a ground attack that finished with -3 yards.
Again, Simpson and the Tide passing game were great in the first meeting with the Sooners, but the protection was spotty against the nation’s best pass rush, and the ground attack couldn’t bust through.
And now the Oklahoma defense is rested, and it should be healthier. So is John Mateer.
The Sooner star quarterback has been fine, but he hasn’t been his normal self since suffering a hand injury halfway through the season. The passing game picked up late, but he also made a slew of mistakes against LSU, was off against Missouri, and hasn’t been running quite as well.
He dinked and dunked in the first meeting with Bama, didn’t make any mistakes, couldn’t break free for anything on the ground other than his 20-yard rushing score. This might be one of those cases where …
Alabama at Oklahoma Prediction, Betting Lines
Oklahoma not playing in the SEC Championship should turn into a major positive.
Alabama might be a little more in rhythm, even though it got steamrolled over, but Oklahoma was leaking oil late in the season.
Oh sure, it closed the season on a four-game winning streak in a true gauntlet of a second half of the season run – and not the “gauntlet” that SEC types tried to sell with the Bama schedule – but it looked like a team that could use almost three weeks off to recharge.
The defense was just fine over that late run, though, and it should be even stronger and sharper at home to kick off the College Football Playoff.
Memorial Stadium will be off the rails, everyone will be fired up, and then …
Alabama will go on a razor-sharp opening drive to take a 7-0 lead, and then it’ll be just as crisp on the second drive. But just as it looks like it’s going to be the Alabama we all know, the OU defense will stiffen, limit the damage to a field goal, and then it’ll be on.
Mateer will look and play with a bit more pop. There won’t be much of a ground game, but the Sooner defense will hold firm over the rest of the second half as the score starts to even up.
Oklahoma will win the second half field position battle, with one big pass play breaking through to finally take over the momentum. The Sooner pass rush will handle the rest.
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 20
Line: Alabama -1.5, o/u: 40.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 5
– CFN Expert Picks of CFP First Round
Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Related: Miami vs Texas A&M Prediction: CFP First Round Preview
This story was originally published by College Football News on Dec 16, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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