Analytics experts weigh in on Colorado's upset chance vs. Texas Tech

Colorado faces its toughest challenge of the season so far with the No. 10 Texas Tech Red Raiders coming to Boulder for a Saturday evening matchup.

After back-to-back losses, including dropping their Big 12 opener to Baylor, most people are down on the Buffs and rightfully so. The analytics community is especially concerned with the Buffaloes' past two performances.

ESPN's Bill Connelly listed Texas Tech as one of his top-15 teams on upset alert, but it didn't spark much confidence that Colorado could actually pull it off.

"The Buffaloes' defense has become far more aggressive and disruptive and can challenge a Tech offense that boasts strong efficiency numbers (15th in success rate) but doesn't make loads of big plays, turns the ball over too much and is dealing with O-line injuries…Only one half of the matchup is intriguing, however — there's little reason to think the Buffaloes will actually score.. It will take serious Boulder magic for this to become interesting." – Connelly

Clearly, Connelly thinks it is at least a possibility that Colorado beats Texas, but nearly everything would have to go right.

Diving deeper into the analytics, SP+ projects the Red Raiders to win by 21 points while ESPN's Football Power Index has Texas Tech winning by 16.1 points. Based purely on the numbers, Colorado has little business being even close to Texas Tech, but as Connelly points out, the Buffs' defense versus the Red Raiders' offense is a matchup to exploit.

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Analytics experts weigh in on Colorado's upset chance vs. Texas Tech