Army vs. Navy Prediction: Black Knights Meet Midshipmen for 126th Time
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Army and Navy will share the field for the 126th time this Saturday in Baltimore, where the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is again up for grabs. The Black Knights and Midshipmen both beat fellow service academy Air Force earlier in the year, upping the stakes for one of college football’s oldest and most iconic rivalries.
Not far from its campus in Annapolis, Maryland, Navy (9-2, 7-1 American) will attempt to defeat Army (6-5, 4-4) in consecutive years for the first time since its 14-game win streak from 2002-2015. The Midshipmen can also secure their second straight 10-win season, something Navy has never done before.
Even if the Black Knights pull off the upset, the Mids still have a chance to reach double-digit wins in the Liberty Bowl against Cincinnati on Jan. 2. Army, which clinched bowl eligibility with a win over UTSA, will face UConn in the Fenway Bowl on Dec. 27.
The Mids pulled off an upset the last time these teams met, taking down the best Black Knights team in years. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath ran for over 200 yards in a 31-13 rout, marking one of the biggest blowouts and highest-scoring contests in the recent history of a rivalry that dates to 1890.
Horvath is one of 11 players in this game who made an American All-Conference team. That list is headlined by teammate Landon Robinson, who was named the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year and earned All-America honors.
Navy leads the all-time series, 63-55-7. This will be the seventh time the Army-Navy game is played in Baltimore. The Black Knights and Midshipmen have split the previous six meetings in the Charm City with Army winning the most recent one in 2016.
Army vs. Navy Odds and Info
Location: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland
Kickoff: Saturday, Dec. 13 at 3 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Spread: Navy -6
Over/Under: 38.5
Announcers: Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson
Why Army Will Win
The Black Knights have been a different team in the second half of the season. Army started the year 1-3, including a season-opening loss to FCS Tarleton State. Since then, coach Jeff Monken’s team is 5-2 with one-score losses to Tulane and Tulsa. That turnaround coincided with Cale Hellums taking back over under center.
Hellums has been a touchdown machine with four multi-score games. He also leads the team with over 1,000 rushing yards despite starting just eight games. Hellums routinely gets 20-plus carries, and he racked up 41 in an upset over Kansas State in September. However, he doesn’t offer much as a passer with just 500 yards on the year.
Wide receiver Brady Anderson has established himself as a big-play threat at almost 30 yards per reception, but the offense’s best weapon after Hellums is Noah Short. He accounts for almost half of Army’s receptions, and he’s the second-leading rusher, too. Despite the relentlessness of the run game, the Black Knights average the third-fewest points in the American. Typically, when they’ve gotten into shootouts, they’ve lost.
Army has been a bit better than Navy on defense this season, but most of that edge boils down to being marginally better against the pass. While that matters in this matchup given Horvath’s arm, the Mids are still going to run the ball 40-plus times. The Black Knights must slow down Horvath to have any chance at an upset.
Why Navy Will Win
The Midshipmen have one of the most efficient offenses in the FBS. They average over 6.8 yards per play and lead the country with 10 plays of 60-plus yards. There’s also much more to this attack than the ground game. Horvath’s 1,390 passing yards are the most by a Navy quarterback since 2016 — and that’s with two games still to go.
All-conference wide receiver Eli Heidenreich leads the team in every pass-catching category with 40 catches for 805 yards and four touchdowns. Heidenreich is also involved in Navy’s rushing attack, which leads the nation at 298.4 yards per game. Leading the charge is Horvath, who’s again gone over 1,000 yards. Running back Alex Tecza also has run for over 100 yards in big wins over South Florida and Memphis after the offense stalled in losses to North Texas and Notre Dame. That trio of seniors has been highly successful in offensive coordinator Drew Cronic’s system over the past two years.
Navy is much more vulnerable on the other side of the ball. However, where coach Brian Newberry’s defense struggles is not necessarily an area of the field where Army stands to threaten them. The Mids have the second-worst pass defense in the American, but they hold up well enough against the run with Robinson anchoring the front seven.
Score Prediction: Navy 24, Army 17
A few mistakes could swing the game in what’s projected to be a low-scoring affair, and the Black Knights have one of the best turnover margins in the country. Still, the Midshipmen simply have too many playmakers on offense for the Black Knights to keep up. Horvath left his mark on this matchup a season ago, and he appears poised to do so again on Saturday, ensuring Navy sings second.
ATS: Navy -6.5
O/U: Over 38.5
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 13, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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