Assessing the necessary chaos for Michigan Football to sneak into the CFP

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Assessing the necessary chaos for Michigan Football to sneak into the CFP

In honor of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, let’s take a look at some of the scenarios needed for the Michigan Wolverines to reach the 12-team field.

Can they win out and earn their spot? Absolutely. But even winning out is a murky path, and there needs to be some cleared roadblocks.

Starting in conference, the Big Ten is likely a four-bid league. Ohio State and Indiana are assuredly in, Oregon has a strong claim and USC already manhandled Michigan. The Hoosiers (6-0) and Buckeyes (5-0) sit atop the league, with the Wolverines (5-1), Ducks (4-1), Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1) and Trojans (4-1) still in the mix.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers could have done Michigan a huge favor this past weekend by beating USC, but there is a real path for the Wolverines to reach the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis. Just getting there is not enough, though, as Michigan needs to take care of Northwestern and Maryland these next few weeks, maintain its dominance in The Game and then raise another banner. Simple, right?

Now, there are so many potential tiebreakers, and going through all of those is a dull task. But there is some possible cannibalization that could benefit the Wolverines. Let’s assume Indiana is in the championship game no matter what, and a win over the Buckeyes would steal that second spot.

What about the rest of those contenders? Here are the remaining schedules of some pesky foes.

  • USC: vs. Northwestern, vs. Iowa, at Oregon, vs. UCLA
  • Oregon: at Iowa, vs. Minnesota, vs. USC, at Washington
  • Iowa: vs. Oregon, at USC, vs. Michigan State, at Nebraska

The Trojans are the main rival since they own the head-to-head, so make sure the next time they are on your TV, it is a full-on hate watch. Oregon can probably miss the Big Ten Championship and still make the CFP, so it should not be as high on the rooting (dis)interest. Iowa has a classic Kirk Ferentz group, and its quest for the playoff may not be taken seriously by the national media, but it is not out just yet.

Ideal chaos would be each of these teams handing one of the other three a loss. Maybe they all defend home soil, wouldn’t that make it easy?

Beyond the Big Ten standings, these are massive resumé games. Michigan should win at Wrigley Field against the Wildcats and should leave College Park with a victory over the Maryland Terrapins. Neither of those are dealbreakers in the committee’s eyes. The Wolverines could beat Ohio State and, at that stage would be, at worst, floating around the Top-10 rankings.

There are a lot of what-ifs at hand, and ultimately, none of them matter if Michigan does not play its best ball. However, there are also very feasible outcomes that benefit the Wolverines’ chances of reaching Indianapolis, and they will need all the help they can get.

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