Best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2026 Tar Heel football team

Best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2026 Tar Heel football team

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

Best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2026 Tar Heel football team
RALEIGH, NORTH CAROLINA – NOVEMBER 29: Head coach Bill Belichick of the North Carolina Tar Heels walks off the field following their loss to the NC State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium on November 29, 2025 in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images) | Getty Images

There are two sides to every coin. A yin to every yang. A glass half full or half empty (or in the case of a realist, just a glass of water). In sports, there is always a best and a worst case. Depending on the strength of a given team (and its coaching), the difference between those two scenarios may not be all that drastic, while for others the gap can be quite large. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the North Carolina Tar Heel’s football season.

Best Case

Bobby Petrino is the ace he claims to be, and the offense hums with new quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. behind an offensive line that gels and blocks for both the pass and run. The new faces on defense add to the building blocks from last season and the unit is able to keep opponents out of the end zone while also getting stops on third and fourth down. All of this translates into a 9-3 campaign and a premier bowl game. Additionally, the turnaround and success is enough to convince an NFL team that Bill Belichick still has it and he returns to the NFL along with most of his staff.

Worst Case

None of the new players work out, and the team goes 1-11 with their lone win coming against FCS opponent ETSU. Jordan Shipp gets offered a deal he can’t resist by a more functional college football program and leaves in the offseason. Despite all the losses, UNC’s leadership lean into the sunk cost fallacy and keep Bill Belichick and company for another season — or worse, extend him.

On the whole, I tend to lean closer to the worst case, though maybe with an extra win or two and an overall hope that university leadership can see past the sunk cost and make the moves necessary to give this program a fighting chance in the ever-changing world of college football.

What do you think the best- and worst-case scenarios are? Let us know in the comments below.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos