Betting the Big Ten: Week 13 sees if USC is a CFP contender

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We bounced back in a big way in Week 12 here on Betting the Big Ten. Ohio State covered at the last gasp, while Oregon, Wisconsin, Iowa and Washington covered with ease. We also correctly identified the under in the Maryland vs. Illinois matchup. Our largest miss was a surprise offensive outburst in the Michigan-Northwestern tilt at Wrigley Field.

On the week we went 6-2, bringing our season total up to a respectable 50-52-2. Let’s keep it going.

Week 13 only has one ranked matchup, but there are single-digit spreads throughout. It should be an entertaining week!

All lines courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.

Rutgers at Ohio State (-31.5), O/U 54.5, Noon

We start off with an odd game in Columbus. While Buckeyes have been excellent all year ATS (8-2), 73 percent of all bets are coming in on Rutgers, per The Action Network. The Scarlet Knights have covered in two of their past three games, which might be why. But let’s look at the total — while both are middling on the season, Rutgers is 1-3 at hitting the over on the road, and Ohio State is just 3-6 as the favorite. Additionally, Rutgers has gone under in three in a row and four of its last five, while Ohio State has gone under in three of its last five as well.

The pick: Under 54.5

Minnesota at Northwestern (-3.5), O/U 39.5, Noon at Wrigley Field, Chicago

The spread here started at 3.5 before jumping all the way out to 5.5. Since then, it’s been an onslaught in the Gophers favor. A total of 74 percent of all bets are on the Gophers, causing the spread to drop back to 3.5 and dwindling. There’s still value with the points right now, but that value may change if it gets much lower. For now, give me Minnesota.

The pick: Minnesota +3.5

USC at Oregon (-9.5), O/U 59.5, 3:30 p.m.

The biggest game of the week has massive playoff implications. Bettors are decidedly split on this one, and the stats are equally split. Both Oregon and USC have gone over five times and under five times this season. USC is 5-5 ATS while Oregon is only slightly better at 6-4. The spread hasn’t budged an inch, and the bet counts are roughly even. The only strong differentiator I see is the home/road splits ATS. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS on the road while Oregon is 4-2 ATS at home. It isn’t much, but it’s what we have to go off.

The pick: Oregon -9.5

Michigan State at Iowa (-16.5), O/U 42.5, 3:30 p.m.

The spread here has been consistent, just like the USC-Oregon matchup. Likewise, there isn’t much to glean on the total. However, we’ve got much more to go off against the spread. Despite the fact Iowa is 8-2 ATS this season, Michigan State is an astounding 4-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS as an underdog. The Spartans have thrived as a road underdog this season, so I’ll ride for one more week.

The pick: Michigan State +16.5

Michigan (-14) at Maryland, O/U 46.5, 4 p.m.

The Wolverines have won four games in a row outright, but have only covered in one of the four despite being favored in all of them. While Michigan is a putrid 3-7 ATS this season, Maryland isn’t much better at 5-5. Against the total, Maryland tends to go under, but Michigan has been all over the board this season. I don’t have a strong feeling about this one, but I do like that the spread hasn’t budged despite nearly 60 percent of all bets coming in on the Terps. That tells me at least moderate money is coming in on Michigan.

The pick: Michigan -14

Nebraska at Penn State (-8.5), O/U 44.5, 7 p.m.

Both teams are below .500 ATS this season, and 8.5 is an odd number to be seeing here. However, I love where we’re at with the total. Both Nebraska and Penn State are 7-3 at hitting the over this year, with Nebraska being 2-1 on the road and Penn State being 4-2 at home. The 44.5 total doesn’t seem like an insurmountable amount of points, so give me the over.

The pick: Over 44.5

Illinois (-7.5) at Wisconsin, O/U 40.5, 7:30 p.m.

The bet percentage in this one is nearly split 50/50, which is impressive given this line has shifted all the way from 10.5 down to 7.5. The betting public seems to love the Badgers in this one. I still see the value in that at 7.5 points. I’d avoid it if it get under seven, but for now, feel free to take Wisconsin.

The pick: Wisconsin +7.5

Washington (-10.5) at UCLA, O/U 51.5, 10:30 p.m.

Washington is 5-3 ATS this year as a favorite, and while UCLA hasn’t been terrible as an underdog (3-3), it is just 3-7 overall on the season and 1-4 at home. The Bruins haven’t covered since they beat Michigan State in early October, while the Huskies have covered in two of their last three. Give me Washington in this one.

The pick: Washington -10.5

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