Big 10 Pick 6: Conference Clashes and Battle of Los Angeles

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I made it through the non-conference season at .500 against the spread and 14-4 overall. Northwestern and UCLA have both elevated their stocks across their non-conference schedules, while UW and Oregon have fallen short of expectations. Will those trends carry over into conference play?

Minnesota @ Washington (-10)

The two biggest questions about the Huskies through the non-conference season have been related issues about health and overall offensive performance. The execution was better last week against an inferior Eastern Washington team. Injuries continue to be a problem in the backfield, but a quick recovery for Rashid Williams an the gradual return of Landen Hatchett at center should continue to help the personnel. Likewise, Minnesota comes into the game with unanswered questions about the team’s true quality. They blew out Eastern Illinois and Akron, but looked wholly uncompetitive against Mississippi St. PJ Fleck prefers to run the ball, though an injury to Darius Taylor has limited their effectiveness. His health is in question this week. Drake Lindsey has been able to move the change with an effective short passing game. Without much of the QB mobility that created problems a week ago, I like UW’s ability to keep the Minnesota offense in check and likely force a turnover or two.

As usual, the bigger question will be about whether UW can execute offensively against a P4 defense. The Gophers really struggled when Mississippi St played at a fast tempo, so it will be interesting to see if the Dawgs try to speed up the game to disorient them. DE Anthony Smith looked like one of the best defenders in the B1G before the year, though he hasn’t made much of an impact so far. Will Kodi Greene be able to continue to neutralize him? It will be his biggest challenge so far. Minnesota has struggled to tackle consistently, so I expect UW to utilize more of the screens and swing passes that they used to replicate a running game a week ago. If they can finish drives, they can get their first ATS win of the year, but I want to see that to fully trust it.

Washington 27 – Minnesota 20

Northwestern @ Indiana (-23.5)

Northwestern has been a pleasant surprise early in the season with wins over Colorado and South Dakota St, led by an improved defense and running game. The big question for Indiana was how well Josh Hoover would cover the gaps left by Fernando Mendoza. So far, so good, as Hoover has been squeaky-clean (10 TD / 0 Int). Indiana under Cignetti has tended to pull starters rather than run up the score, and Northwestern is well-equipped to keep the game relatively low scoring.

Indiana 38 – Northwestern 20

UCLA @ Maryland (+1.5)

Bob Chesney is off to a great start with the Bruins, with decisive wins over Cal and Purdue, but traveling 2300 miles is a new challenge. Maryland did not play particularly well against Virginia Tech last week, though Malik Washington has generally been solid to date. The talent matchup looks pretty even. On a neutral field, I’d take UCLA. On a long road-trip with an early kickoff in a hostile stadium, it’s harder to pick them.

Maryland 31 – UCLA 30

Iowa @ Michigan (-5.5)

The eternally 16-13 Iowa-Iowa St game was our first real Kirk Ferentz game of the year, so this one can be the first in-conference Kirk Ferentz game of the year. Obviously, this game will be decided by a FG, so it’s hard to figure out why Vegas whiffed on setting the line at Michigan -3. We have generally been led to believe that Michigan’s win over Oklahoma steadied the ship after the (non)win against Western Michigan, but is Oklahoma any good? Either way, take the points.

Michigan 20 – Iowa 17

Wisconsin @ Penn St (-10)

These teams are a combined 5-0 with no close games against MAC/FCS teams. Wisconsin was hammered by Notre Dame, which is the big difference between their resumes. Under the hood, there’s more to like about the play-by-play data on Matt Campbell’s early tenure in Western PA. Like is good Iowa St teams, the Nittany Lions can run and defend. I expect Wisconsin to have a hard time moving the ball and Penn St to cover fairly easily.

Penn St 28 – Wisconsin 13

Oregon @ USC (+3)

Oregon has been a bit shaky defensively after losing their coordinators on both sides of the ball. Jayden Maiava has been anything but shaky, leading the USC offense to some vintage Lincoln Riley statistics. Then again, USC’s defense does not look CFP-worthy and the Oregon offense has not been the issue so far. I really don’t have a great feeling for who will win the game, but it’s worth noting that the Over/Under of 62.5 is the biggest number available anywhere in the country this week. I’m torn on the result, so I will split the difference.

Oregon 34 – USC 33

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