Big 10 Pick 6: Dawgs Seek to Extend Purdue Misery
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I continue to hang around .500 with another 3-3 ATS week. Sadly, I was very wrong about the Huskies. I didn’t see the woeful Wisconsin offense having any chance at hanging with UW. The road woes popped up again, though, and UW’s offense and special teams played even worse than the bad Wisconsin offense. Maryland was another road favorite who laid an egg against Rutgers. Will we see the big home field advantages again this week?
As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information.
Purdue @ Washington (-16.5)
Washington DC Ryan Walters got fired for goin winless in the Big 10 last year. His replacement, Barry Odom, hasn’t done much better so far. After two wins over vastly inferior opponents to start the year, Purdue has lost eight straight, including all seven conference games. In their defense, they have been much more competitive than they were a year ago, staying within a possession of Minnesota, Rutgers, and Michigan.
Washington has proven over and over under Jedd Fisch that the biggest factor in their performance week to week is whether they are playing at home or away. Back in Husky Stadium, I expect Demond Williams to get back on track. The offense likely won’t be at its very best with health issues afflicting Jonah Coleman, Denzel Boston, and Drew Azzopardi. The Purdue defense, much like Washington’s, tries to limit big plays and tends to give up long drives. They have done a good job of limiting points on quality drives (19th in the country), so it will be important for UW to find ways to convert in the red zone. However, they are outside the top 100 in success rate against both the run and pass. Adam Mohammed and Dezmen Roebuck will both be crucial in establishing long drives.
Purdue’s offense has has also been below-average without verging on disastrous. RB Devin Mockobee is probably their best individual player. QB Ryan Browne has been somewhat turnover prone (9 TDs to 8 Ints). They’re not bad enough that this version of the UW defense will easily force them off the field, but they’re not good enough to put up 30+ points. Altogether, it looks like the kind of game Purdue has played several times this year: keep it reasonably close but another loss.
Washington 31 – Purdue 20
Minnesota @ Oregon (-25.5)
In Oregon’s last five games, they only blowout was a 56-10 win at Rutgers. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Penn St all played them close and they lost to Indiana. At 6-3 (4-2), PJ Fleck has the Gophers on track for yet another respectable season with no hints of a major breakthrough. They have really struggled against the two truly elite defenses they have played, with 6 combined points against Iowa and Ohio St. The big spread means they could definitely sneak in a backdoor cover, but with the long trip, I will take the Ducks.
Oregon 38 – Minnesota 10
Michigan @ Northwestern (+11.5)
Much like the Oregon game, the odds makers have done a good job setting this line. It’s easy to imagine scenarios on either side of the number. In Michigan’s favor, it’s not a true road game. They will play in Wrigley Field, and with the number of Michigan grads in Chicago, they should have a sizeable cheering section. One interesting matchup will be Michigan’s pass rush (2nd nationally in sack rate) against Northwestern’s pass protection (5th best at limiting sacks). QB Preston Stone is not a runner, so if Michigan can get through the protection, it could create quite a few negative plays.
Michigan 28 – Northwestern 14
Penn St @ Michigan St (+7)
The biggest thing on the line in this game is probably which team gets off the schneid with their first conference win. Both had close calls last week- Penn St losing to Indiana on a miraculous TD catch and Michigan St falling to Minnesota in OT. We have seen that Ethan Grunkemeyer is a perfectly respectable replacement for Drew Allar at QB and Penn St has not given up after Allar’s injury and James Franklin’s dismissal. Sparty has played poorly at home and its hard to pinpoint what they do really well. Aidan Chiles can make big plays but he’s inconsistent. At some point, many of their players will be thinking about playing at a different school and Michigan St will be thinking about replacing Jonathan Smith. If it happens this week, things could get really sideways.
Penn St 27 – Michigan St 17
Iowa @ USC (-6.5)
This match-up is probably the biggest contrast of styles the Big 10 can offer. USC is 6th in passing success rate and Iowa is 117th. Both USC’s offense and Iowa’s defense are elite. Whether USC’s defense or Iowa’s offense is better is debatable. Teams have been able to run against USC, which is exactly what Iowa will want to do. If not for the long road trip, I would take Iowa. They haven’t travelled to the West Coast this year, but lost at moribund UCLA last year in one of the stranger results of the Big 10 season. When in doubt, err on the side of the team not traveling thousands of miles.
USC 24 – Iowa 16
Maryland @ Illinois (-14.5)
Both Ohio St- UCLA and Indiana-Wisconsin look one-sided enough that they won’t be much fun to pick. This game at least has a chance to be competitive. The early-season success for the Terrapin defense has gone out the window with at least 34 points surrendered in three of their last four. To stay in this game, they will have to establish the passing game against a vulnerable Illinois defense. With their defensive regression, I think Luke Altmyer’s steady competence will be enough to win, but I’m less confident that it will be enough to win by more than two TDs.
Illinois 33 – Maryland 20
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