Big 12 college football preview 2026: Texas Tech, Deion Sanders, first-year coaches lead top storylines
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Texas Tech dominated most of the offseason conversation — but not really for football reasons. The Brendan Sorsby saga is now in the past, with the quarterback ineligible to play college football this fall after repeatedly violating the NCAA’s sports wagering rules.
But that doesn’t change the overall expectations for the Red Raiders. They expect to win the Big 12 and make the College Football Playoff again. The rest of the league knows who it is chasing, too.
Top storylines in the Big 12
Texas Tech’s encore
By now, everyone knows exactly what the Red Raiders are up to. They’re big spenders in a sport that tends to reward it. Billionaire booster Cody Campbell has become the face of the Texas Tech football program in many ways, and he’s what comes to mind each time the Red Raiders reel in another big fish.
The idea is simple. If Texas Tech is bigger, faster and stronger than most of its Big 12 opponents, it will be able to dominate this conference: Win most of the games at the line of scrimmage, and win the games against the other elite teams in the margins. And the Red Raiders have beefed up that defensive front once again, a year after David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks.
For years, the Big 12 race felt totally wide-open. The gap between the teams at the top and the teams at the bottom was the smallest of any power conference. But Texas Tech is trying to change that, aiming to be the top dog on an annual basis. This season — with all three coordinators back, a lot of returning production and new disruptive defenders added via the portal — could solidify that.
The big question will be at the quarterback position, which wasn’t supposed to be a question at all after adding Sorsby. But now the task of leading this offense will fall to Will Hammond, who backed up Behren Morton last year and played particularly well against Utah when thrust into the starting lineup after Morton’s injury. Now, Hammond is coming back from an ACL tear, but the Texas Tech staff is high on his potential for the fall, even if he’s not 100 percent ready to go in Week 1. Is he good enough to take this squad back to the CFP — and advance this time?
That’s the real question. Quarterback wasn’t a strength a season ago, and it didn’t matter in most of Texas Tech’s games. But it mattered quite a bit against Oregon in the CFP, and that’s the gap that these Red Raiders are trying to close against the nation’s elite.
A multi-bid Big 12?
The very first thing commissioner Brett Yormark said when he sat down with me at Big 12 media days was this: “For the short-term and long-term viability of the conference, we need multiple teams in the Playoff. I strongly believe that. Obviously, for the first two years of the 12-team format, we've only had one, and we haven't won a game yet.”
It’s that simple. For the Big 12 to remain competitive in an era of college football dominated by the Big Ten and SEC — with a revenue gap that will only widen year over year between those two and the rest of the Power 4 — the Big 12 needs its top teams to compete (and beat) the big boys from those conferences.
The Big 12 also needs the respect of the CFP selection committee so that it isn’t viewed as a one-big league. I know, I know. The committee doesn’t take conference affiliation into account when it’s making decisions. But we see how the committee members view the rigor of a Big 12 schedule when we see how a team like BYU gets treated. The Cougars dropped after picking up a second loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game — while Alabama remained safely in the CFP field after picking up a third loss (in lopsided fashion) in the SEC championship game.
It’s not always apples to apples, but these examples show both the conference and the public what the selection committee thinks of the second- and third-best teams in the Big 12. And that is what Yormark and others need to change. Nonconference games are a huge part of that. Just think about how far a BYU win over a top-five Notre Dame in mid-October could go for this conference. Or even a Baylor win over Auburn in Week 1, setting a narrative early.
A revitalized Deion Sanders
Last year was a challenging one for the Colorado head coach. He underwent bladder cancer surgery and then endured a frustrating 3-9 campaign.
But he looks and sounds much healthier — and happier — now. At Big 12 media days, he opened up about just how difficult last season was and how his health issues ended up impacting the on-field product. He didn’t feel like himself when he returned to fall camp after spending the summer away from the program.
“You know when you’ve been sick, but you still had to get your butt up and do what you had to do?” Sanders said. “You were there in the flesh, but you weren’t you in thought process and thinking and the quickness and being free of thought. That’s where I was.
“I’m putting that on me — that there were some holes that I saw that I didn’t make adjustments on. I should have. I should have shot some things early on.”
Colorado closed out its 2025 season by losing seven of its last eight games last season. The roster and coaching staff both needed an overhaul, and Sanders now feels confident in the people and pieces he’s brought in. He told me and a few other national reporters that he’s got the personnel he needs to win in the Big 12 and beyond now.
There is a lot we don’t know yet about this year’s squad, but it’s clear the head coach is re-energized and feeling much more optimistic about things than he did a year ago at this time. Sanders said he believes the Buffs have already turned the program around from that dreadful 3-9 season.
“You just ain’t seen the fruit,” he said.
First-year coaches with an immediate impact?
The coaching carousel spun wildly this offseason, with 33 (!) Football Bowl Subdivision head-coaching jobs turning over. And some of the most intriguing coaching changes took place in the Big 12 conference.
It’s going to be strange to see Kyle Whittingham coaching elsewhere, but Utah should be poised for success under Morgan Scalley. Expectations are always high for the Utes, but they’re also fair considering the program’s tough, physical defensive identity remains — and the fact that quarterback Devon Dampier decided to stay put after his offensive coordinator left for Ann Arbor.
It’s also going to be strange to see Oklahoma State led by someone other than Mike Gundy and Iowa State coached by someone other than Matt Campbell. But this is the new world order of the Big 12, and at least we get a familiar face back, as former Kansas State star quarterback Collin Klein returns to take the helm at his alma mater. Klein walks into a cupboard that is far from bare and should have a strong Year 1. I think Eric Morris was a fantastic hire for Oklahoma State and might have one of the biggest one-year win-loss jumps in the country. I’m less certain about Jimmy Rogers, but I’m prepared to be patient to see what he builds.
The expected CFP contenders
Texas Tech
Even without Brendan Sorsby, the Red Raiders are loaded with talent and expected to win the Big 12 again. They’ll be able to run the ball, and they’ll be able to get after opposing quarterbacks. Defense should, once again, be Tech’s calling card. Key transfer names to know on the defensive side of the ball: defensive lineman Mateen Ibirogba (from Wake Forest), defensive end Adam Trick (from Miami-Ohio), and linebacker Austin Romaine (from Kansas State).
BYU
Kalani Sitake told me he doesn’t believe in CFP campaigning and politicking, which is a genuinely refreshing stance. But of all coaches in college football, he’s the one who should have the biggest gripe with the selection committee over the past two years. “It’s not an easy job for anybody to do that, so I need to do a better job to make it a definite,” he told me. “That’s going to help us tell the story more than I can if I were to talk about it.” He’s got quarterback Bear Bachmeier back, one of the best backfields in the country and plenty of returning production all over the field. The schedule is favorable, too, with no regular-season matchups against Texas Tech or Houston. An 11-1 record with the lone loss coming to Notre Dame (which could be No. 1 in the nation at that point in the season) looks very possible.
Houston
Cougars head coach Willie Fritz is a winner. He wins everywhere he’s been; he’s posted 10-win seasons at five different programs. And Houston had its breakthrough last year, a 10-3 campaign capped off with a win over LSU in the Texas Bowl. Fritz told me this offseason was the first time in quarterback Conner Weigman’s college career that he was healthy enough to have a full offseason of work. That excites him, especially after Weigman’s breakthrough season a year ago. Houston should be just as good as last year’s version (if not better, especially with Fritz reuniting with former Tulane star running back Makhi Hughes), and this team should be in the CFP conversation if it takes care of business. The Cougs avoid both Texas Tech and BYU in the regular season.
Also in the mix: Utah, Kansas State, TCU
Big 12 coach with the hottest seat
Dave Aranda, Baylor. Aranda has found himself on hot-seat lists for the last few years now, and he got a chance to coach this fall largely because Baylor didn’t have a full-time athletic director in place at the end of last season. That 12-win campaign back in 2021 feels like a lifetime ago. Still, a chance is a chance, and Aranda’s future will largely be determined by how well Florida transfer DJ Lagway performs. The Week 1 opener against Auburn feels like an opportunity to shift the narrative early for Aranda, which could be important considering how backloaded Baylor’s schedule is — finishing the regular season with games against BYU, Texas Tech and Houston.
Big 12 Award predictions
Coach of the Year: Eric Morris, Oklahoma State. Morris is doing what Curt Cignetti did when he first got to Indiana from James Madison — he’s importing a bunch of key players from his previous stop to help set the foundation of his program and speed up the rebuild. And I think it’s going to work, especially with prolific quarterback Drew Mestemaker in the fold. Oklahoma State’s roster haul was huge, but the coaching staff added a ton of experienced players with a lot of snaps under their belts. The Cowboys are going to win some games that people won’t expect, and I think they’ll be a tough out for the conference’s top dogs, too.
Offensive Player of the Year: Drew Mestemaker, Oklahoma State. Last year at North Texas, Mestemaker quarterbacked the nation’s most productive offense. It ranked first in FBS in scoring offense, second in passing offense and first in total offense, accounting for 512.4 yards of offense per game. Mestemaker threw for nearly 4,400 yards. Now, defenses will be tougher in the Big 12 than they were in the American, but a great offense is a great offense. And the quarterback who came to college as a zero-star walk-on who hadn’t started a single high school varsity game at the position is one of the best QBs in the country. If Mestemaker helps Oklahoma State take as big a jump as I think it’s capable of this year off a brutal 1-11 campaign, he’ll win a bunch of postseason awards.
Defensive Player of the Year: Austin Romaine, Texas Tech. The hardest part of picking my winner here was determining which Red Raider I wanted to go with. Defensive lineman AJ Holmes was the league’s preseason pick, and he could certainly end up winning it as the key holdover from last year’s incredible defense and anchor of what’s expected to be another terrific defensive front. But I’ll go with Romaine, who comes to Texas Tech from Kansas State. He’s an elite pass rusher and great tackler with impressive natural instincts, and he put up big numbers even with an injury-shortened 2025 season with the Wildcats. Jacob Rodriguez gained himself quite a bit of notoriety as Texas Tech’s star linebacker a season ago, and I expect his successor to garner similar levels of attention now.
Must-see Big 12 matchups
- Sept. 18: Houston at Texas Tech
- Oct. 3: BYU at TCU
- Oct. 10: Houston at Kansas State
- Oct. 24: Houston at Utah
- Nov. 7: BYU at Utah
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