Big 12 Football: Ranking the Conference's 16 Teams Into Tiers for 2026

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July 23, 2026
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With the start of college football’s 2026 season less than 40 days away, it’s time to rank Big 12 teams into tiers of conference title contention, dark-horse contenders and teams expected to fight for bowl eligibility. Texas Tech was the clear No. 1 team in the Big 12 last season, with BYU up next at 12-2 and Utah and Houston a step behind in the next tier. Despite this conference’s track record of unpredictability and chaos, those four teams open 2026 as the projected top four teams in Athlon’s predictions.

But are those top four teams in the same tier of contention for the Big 12 title? Could this conference produce a dark-horse contender or two? And which teams are likely to be fighting just for bowl eligibility?

Using projected 138 team rankings by Athlon Sports for the '26 season, let’s rank the Big 12 into tiers.

Big 12 Preview:Predictions | All-Conference Team | 138 Rankings
Coach Rankings | All-America Team | Bowl Projections

Texas Tech (No. 12 in Athlon's projected 138 rankings for 2026)
BYU (No. 16)

Texas Tech steamrolled the rest of the Big 12 last season, winning nine games against conference opponents by 22 points or more. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby’s departure is significant, but Will Hammond is on track to be 100 percent in the fall following an ACL tear. His return under center will ensure the offense doesn’t miss a beat in 2026. Coach Joey McGuire also added impact transfers to restock the defensive front.

BYU was soundly defeated by a combined score of 63-14 in two meetings against the Red Raiders last year. Coach Kalani Sitake returns quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin, along with a defense that ranks among the best in the Big 12. But in order to close the gap to Texas Tech, the Cougars have to restock the receiving corps and hold up better in the trenches in a potential rematch against the Red Raiders in the conference title game.

Houston (No. 19)
Utah (No. 20)

Houston took a step forward under coach Willie Fritz last year with a 10-3 record. The Cougars are a dark horse contender behind quarterback Conner Weigman and some of the Big 12’s top skill talent, including running back Makhi Hughes and receiver Amare Thomas. Six starters return from a defense that held teams to 22.8 points per game last year.

The transition from Kyle Whittingham to Morgan Scalley as head coach should be relatively seamless in Salt Lake City. The Utes will find a way to thrive on defense again, and quarterback Devon Dampier is back after averaging 277.1 total yards per game in ‘25. If Utah generates more production out of its passing game and restocks both lines of scrimmage, Scalley’s program could find itself in the top tier with Texas Tech and BYU.

Kansas State (No. 31)
Arizona (No. 32)
Arizona State (No. 35)
Oklahoma State (No. 36)
TCU (No. 37)

Any of these five teams could finish in the top 25 this year.

Kansas State has a favorable schedule under new coach Collin Klein and returns dynamic quarterback Avery Johnson. A revamped offensive line and a defense returning two starters, top the list of concerns for Klein.

First-team All-Big 12 quarterback Noah Fifita is back at Arizona. Also, confidence is high that the defense won't miss a beat with coordinator Danny Gonzales finding the right pieces to reload.

Arizona State returns only two starters, but coach Kenny Dillingham landed a potential impact quarterback in Cutter Boley (Kentucky) and two playmakers at receiver in Reed Harris (Boston College) and Omarion Miller (Colorado) from the transfer portal to provide a strong foundation for the offensive rebuild.

Oklahoma State was one of the offseason’s biggest winners with new coach Eric Morris among the top hires for ‘26. Additionally, he landed a monster transfer class that included a handful of players from his last stop at North Texas, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins.

TCU has won at least nine games in three out of the last four years under coach Sonny Dykes. The Horned Frogs can’t be counted out of the conference title mix—especially if Harvard transfer quarterback Jaden Craig and new coordinator Gordon Sammis keep the offense near the top of the Big 12 after averaging 6.1 yards per play in ‘25.

Related: Big 12 Predictions for 2026

West Virginia (No. 50)
Kansas (No. 51)

These two teams missed out on a bowl last year, but Athlon’s projections expect a return to the postseason.

Expect West Virginia to take a step forward in coach Rich Rodriguez’s second season. The arrival of a pair of transfers in quarterback Michael Hawkins (Oklahoma) and running back Cam Cook (Jacksonville State) provides a needed spark for an offense that managed only 21.8 points per game last year.

After a nine-win season in ‘23, Kansas has posted back-to-back 5-7 campaigns. The return of former play-caller Andy Kotelnicki as offensive coordinator in Lawrence should help the Jayhawks fight their way to a postseason trip. The performance of whichever player wins the quarterback competition—either Cole Ballard or Isaiah Marshall—could decide how high this team climbs in the Big 12.

Baylor (No. 62)
Cincinnati (No. 63)
Colorado (No. 64)
UCF (No. 65)
Iowa State (No. 70)

Anything can happen in the wide-open Big 12, so we can’t rule out any of these teams from making a run at a bowl game.

If Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway delivers on his five-star potential, Baylor could surprise in a crucial year for coach Dave Aranda. Cincinnati returns arguably the Big 12’s top offensive line but is breaking in a new quarterback and brings back only one starter on defense.

The hire of coordinator Brennan Marion should help Colorado’s offense get back on track after averaging only 20.9 points per game last year. But can the Buffaloes make enough strides on the offensive line and defense to push for six wins?

At UCF, James Madison transfer quarterback Alonza Barnett III was a crucial get from the portal to jumpstart coach Scott Frost’s offense.

Iowa State is undergoing a massive rebuild under new coach Jimmy Rogers. The Cyclones return zero starters.

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Jul 23, 2026, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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Big 12 Football: Ranking the Conference's 16 Teams Into Tiers for 2026

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