Big Ten Football: Best Week 4 bets for Michigan-Iowa, USC-Oregon, more
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Now that’s more like it. After a ho-hum noon slate, we went nearly perfect in the afternoon window to go 9-6-1 in Week 3. We picked several large underdogs that were able to cover like UTEP, Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. On the season, we now sit at 25-24-1.
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Week 4 is the true start of conference play, as nearly every Big Ten team plays another one. On top of that, we’ve got two top-25 matchups. Let’s keep the good times rolling.
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All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Please bet responsibly.
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Howard at Rutgers, No lines available, 7 p.m. Friday
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Northwestern at Indiana (-21), O/U 49.5, 8 p.m. Friday
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If this spread were at 20.5, I would love it for Indiana. However, the Wildcats are 2-0 ATS this season while IU is 0-3. Indiana certainly isn’t bad, but it has struggled to cover large spreads to start the season. I’m going to take a leap of faith here and take Northwestern to cover.
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The pick: Northwestern +21
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Illinois at Ohio State (-27.5), O/U 53.5, Noon Saturday
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The public seems to like Ohio State here, as the line has moved from 25.5 to 27.5. The Buckeyes are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season while Illinois is 1-2, having failed to cover its two closest games. I love the value of getting Ohio State for less than four touchdowns.
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The pick: Ohio State -27.5
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UCLA (-1.5) at Maryland, O/U 56.5, 1:30 p.m.
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Sadly, this game did not cross the bridge, as UCLA has been favored the entire time with the spread bouncing back and forth between 1.5 and 2.5. Both teams have been pretty good against the spread, with UCLA at 3-0 and Maryland at 2-1. I’m instead looking at the total — Maryland has the 23rd-best scoring offense while UCLA is 24th. In addition, both teams are 2-1 at hitting the over, with Maryland 2-0 at home and UCLA 1-0 on the road. The over is the play here.
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The pick: Over 56.5
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Notre Dame (-27.5) at Purdue, O/U 58.5, 2 p.m.
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These two teams have met in each of the last two years with one common theme: a ton of points. In 2024, Notre Dame won 66-7 in West Lafayette. In 2025, Notre Dame won, 56-30, in South Bend. Purdue has an abominable defense, but a decent offense. Give me the over.
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The pick: Over 58.5
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Iowa at Michigan (-5.5), O/U 38.5, 3:30 p.m.
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This is arguably the toughest matchup of the week. Both teams are 2-1 ATS, and both also tend to go under; the total is comically low at 38.5, so that makes me nervous. According to The Action Network, 56 percent of all bets are on Iowa, yet the spread has slowly crept from 4.5 to 5.5, which leads me to believe that at least moderately big money is on Michigan. It’s not a ton, but it’s the best we have to go off.
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The pick: Michigan -5.5
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Wisconsin at Penn State (-10), O/U 44.5, 5 p.m.
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For reasons unbeknownst to me, this spread is quickly shifting towards Wisconsin. At one point, Penn State was favored by 12.5. It is now down to 10 with no signs of stopping. That’s enough for me to ride with the general public.
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The pick: Wisconsin +10
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Nebraska (-5.5) at Michigan State, O/U 48.5, 5 p.m.
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The betting public seems split. The spread hasn’t done much and the betting figures are nearly 50/50, according to The Action Network. Both teams are 2-1 ATS, which doesn’t tell us much either. Based mostly on vibes, I’m going to take the under, as Michigan State has hit the under in back-to-back weeks and Nebraska went under against North Dakota last week.
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The pick: Under 48.5
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Oregon (-3) at USC, O/U 62.5, 7:30 p.m.
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This is an absolutely monstrous game for the Ducks. Having lost a shocker to Oklahoma State in Week 2, their margin for error is significantly reduced. While Oregon has struggled so far, USC has also failed to cover the spread in three of its four games. The Trojan’s offense has looked as advertised, but the defense has been lackluster. All this leads me to the over, as each team has already hit the over three times this season.
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The pick: Over 62.5
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Minnesota at Washington (-10), O/U 45.5, 11 p.m.
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A majority of the public bets are on Minnesota (60 percent, per The Action Network). However, the spread has moved from eight up to 10 in Washington’s favor. Big money is on the Huskies in this late-night matchup.
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The pick: Washington -10
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