Big Ten Football Week 12 Picks, Predictions, Previews
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LAZERZ…and a whole bunch of other games of limited import.
A very pleasant Land Grant Trophy week to each and every one of you.
One of my favorite genres of longform journalism is the travel fiasco narrative, and this week Mike Taniel—of Too Deep Zone—has a great one about taking a Greyhound bus from New Orleans to Atlanta to Philadelphia after his flight was canceled as a result of the federal shutdown and subsequent air traffic controller shortages. It’s a hell of a read with a pretty sobering ending.
About Last Week
- The chances of going 0-7 ATS are more than 1000-1 against. Sooo congrats larry31 and RUready?
- Our fearless editor has quietly built a 68 pt lead with 3 weeks to go. (in as much as he “quietly” does anything)
- I started the weekend 0-4 and somehow climbed in the standings a little. I’d like to thank my fellow “writers” for also sucking at this.
The Picks
All times CDT, because reasons.
Saturday, November 14
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ (7) Oregon Ducks
8PM | FOX | Oregon -24.5 | O/U 46.5
Straight Up: Oregon 12-0
Against the Spread: Oregon 7-5
BRT: Two incredibly underwhelming teams that are both luckier than they deserve to be. But Oregon has more tools, and should be able to win this one fairly undramatically (especially at home.)
Thumpasaurus: Home/away splits for west coast teams continue to be crazy. Oregon will press their advantage here
Larry31: I think Minnesota will not get beat by 3 TDS and 1 FG. Crazy high point spread.
misdreavus79: Part of doing the absolute bare minimum to win is doing just enough to not get blown out. Oregon 31, Minnesota 17
RockyMtnBlue: I mentioned last week that Oregon is just one of those teams you pick to cover, and that Kinnick was a special case. They’re not at Kinnick this week. Oregon 34-7
MNW: High spread scares me off, and it’s sticking in my head that Northwestern briefly had a little success running the ball on the Ducks. Darius Taylor is back for the Gophers, allegedly, but Drake Lindsey is likely in for a rough day at the office against the Oregon secondary.
Whether Minnesota can slow them down enough is the question. I am still, for some reason, betting they can. Maybe it’s the hook giving me optimism. Ducks, 38-14.
Saturday, November 15
Wisconsin Badgers @ (2) Indiana Hoosiers
Noon | BTN | Indiana -30.5 | O/U 44.5
Straight Up: Indiana 12-0
Against the Spread: Tied 6-6
BRT: It was nice Wisconsin had fun last weekend. Indiana very nearly did not, and I have to assume that got their attention. Consequently, I do not think Wisconsin will have fun this weekend.
Thumpasaurus: Is Indiana square for 83-20 yet? If not, this could get ugly. Wisconsin won at home against a west coast team thanks to a literal perfect storm. Indiana dicks around on the road, but not so much at home.
Larry31: See above.
misdreavus79: Sorry Wisconsin, you get all the points Penn State didn’t let them score. Indiana 77, Wisconsin 3
RockyMtnBlue: Indiana is another one of those teams you just pick to cover. They’re not at Kinnick this week either. Indiana 42-7
MNW: Do we think Cignetti would pull up 83-20 and get kids pissed about a blowout that happened something like 15 years ago? (Man, time is a son of a bitch.)
…I am not betting against him at this point. And I’m certainly betting against the badger offense, unless they bring out the WILD PUNTER formation and Sean West’s got a 200-yard day in him. IU, 49-8.
(18) Michigan Wolverines @ Northwestern Wildcats
Noon | FOX | Michigan -9.5 | O/U 41.5
Straight Up: Michigan 9-3
Against the Spread: Tied 6-6
BRT: I am attracted to the idea of Northwestern winning this, but I am informed they play poorly in Wrigley. Presumably because they aren’t a baseball team.
Thumpasaurus: Holy shit what an annoying game. Northwestern vs. Michigan at the home of the Cubs? Michigan covers, but just barely.
Larry31: Northwestern makes everyone look bad. UM’s offense doesn’t need any help. 9.5 points is like the 30-point spread above. Northwestern covers.
misdreavus79: It’s road Michigan, but I think Northwestern has come back down to earth. Michigan 13, Northwestern 7
RockyMtnBlue: Northwestern is kinda sneaky not shitty, while Michigan struggled to beat Purdue at home (where we like to think they’re a lot better). Northwestern 16-13 on a walk off FG.
MNW: Three people took the Wildcats! You fools!
0-6 at Wrigley, defense that knows what it’s doing for the opponent. We know how this story ends. More regrettable in all this is that it should be a nice day for football. Wrigley Field doesn’t deserve that. It deserves rainy, sloppy, turf-munching football.
Will Northwestern be able to adapt and slow down Jordan Marshall out of the Michigan backfield? Can ANYONE for Northwestern consistently move the ball on offense? If the ‘Cats can answer both those questions convincingly, they can at least keep this a one-score game. Otherwise, as Thump mentioned, it’s just a party for Michigan fans in a terrible, terrible place. Wolverines, 21-7.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ (17) Southern Cal Trojans
2:30PM | BTN | USC -6.5 | O/U 49.5
Straight Up: USC 8-4
Against the Spread: Tied 6-6
BRT: Angry Iowa team knocks off cocky SoCall team on the road is the kind of sexy Big Ten headline we might enjoy to some extent, but I don’t really see it happening. USC really does seem to be a lot better at home.
Thumpasaurus: A loss here for Iowa guarantees that they win their next two. They’re gonna want both those games more than this one. USC might not suck quite as much as I thought. Their two losses are to teams that should be Also Receiving Votes.
Larry31: See BRT’s comment above. USC covers.
misdreavus79: Are the Xs supposed to signify what we should expect from this game? Iowa 23, USC 20
[Editor’s note: ESPN didn’t have the TV listings for a couple games when I pulled the info. I fill that in with a bunch of Xs so I’m likely to notice it and fix it later. -RMB]
RockyMtnBlue: We collate these comments in a google doc and I’m usually the 2nd-to-last to comment (MNW puts his in after the article is otherwise done and I’m long since in bed). By the time I get here, some of the threads have changes in the font and text size and it confuses the ever living shit out of me. Also, USC covers at home. USC 28-21
MNW: I genuinely, genuinely, genuinely promise you I have no idea what I’m doing here. Iowa blows but hangs around like the cancer they’re rapidly stuffing into the few citizens who want to remain living there. USC, 31-27.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan State Spartans
2:30PM | CBS | PSU -6.5 | O/U 49.5
Straight Up: Penn State 11-1
Against the Spread: Penn State 10-2
BRT: Well. This will be fun for PSU fans! Finally. And if it’s not, it will at least be hilarious for the rest of us.
Thumpasaurus: It is absolutely WILD how much things have swung for Michigan State, it’s been a tough season. You come in hoping to build on last year with a budding QB prospect and start 3-0 with a P5 win. Well, it turns out that’s just about the worst P5 team. Oops! The schedule is just so unfavorable with tougher games on the road, but that UCLA home date looks tasty. But wait, they fired the coach who apparently was actively making them terrible and it turns out they’re kinda feisty. Well, shit! Here comes Michigan. This is gonna be a bloodbath! Except…you play it close and you have chances to tie it up. HOWEVER, they are sabotaged by your head coach making the wrong decisions at every turn. Should that budding star QB even be starting anymore? Maybe not. Hey look at that you’re gonna win a road game! Just kidding, no you’re not. Alright well it’s been a tough season but here’s a get right game against a team that’s 0-6 in Big Ten play buuuuuuuuuut it’s Penn State, loaded with NFL talent.
These people are going through it. At least they’re not Oregon State, who just fired their INTERIM head coach.
Larry31: Yes, we’re all laughing our asses off at Penn State’s crazy, unrealistic expectations, which have resulted in James Franklin getting paid $49 million to not coach while Penn State is on a six-game losing streak and have yet to win a conference game. I get it. But, Penn State has so much more talent on their roster than MSU. PSU wins by at least a TD and covers.
misdreavus79: If Penn State actually hires a good coach I’m probably going to turn into the arrogant asshole everyone says Penn State fans are.
Anyway, I don’t know what’s worse, the colonoscopy prep I’m currently going through or having to watch this game on Saturday. Your guess is as good as mine.
RockyMtnBlue: It’s been an unpleasant season for the Bad Guys, but they’ve shown signs of life their last few games. PSU, on the other hand, is coming off an absolute nut-punch of a loss. If Penn State rallies around that I’m gonna look pretty stupid. I think Indiana beats them twice. Michigan State 21-20
MNW: PEW PEW PEW-S-U, 28-21.
Maryland Terrapins @ Illinois Fighting Illini
2:30PM | FS1 | Illinois -14.5 | O/U 53.5
Straight Up: Illinois 12-0
Against the Spread: Illinois 8-4
BRT: Maryland’s woes continue. I picked them last week, but I shan’t gamble thusly again.
Thumpasaurus: I don’t really believe the Illini defense can play as well as they did last week, but the weather looks good and the offense ought to be able to stretch a little now. If the Illini cover, this game WILL hit the over.
Larry31: Gee, it’s like BRT is my own personal Chat GPT. See her comments above. Maryland gets shit-kicked. BTW, I think Maryland loses out, repeats their 4-8, 1-8 record from last year, and Locks gets fired. I like Locks and would be thrilled if he proves me wrong, but in Year 7, I think we know who Locks is.
misdreavus79: If you can’t beat Rutgers you’re pretty much done for the season. Illinois 34, Maryland 10
RockyMtnBlue: It would be truly difficult for me to care about this game less. But I’m willing to try. Illinois 34-21
MNW: God, you take a normal line like -14 and put that half-point on it, and I am, apparently, your fuckin’ huckleberry. Illinois, 35-21.
Purdue Boilermakers @ Washington Huskies
6PM | FS1 | Washington -16.5 | O/U 54.5
Straight Up: Washington 12-0
Against the Spread: Washington 9-3
BRT: Purdue has had moments, but I don’t think they have quite enough of them. And surely, Washington won’t lose to BOTH of the conference cellar-dwellers in consecutive weeks… right?
Thumpasaurus: Purdue is setting up to be the pluckiest 2-10 team since 2006 Illinois. You saw what happened next year though…
“Purdue” of course comes from the French word “perdu” which means “lost”
BoilerUp89: It would be really, really, really cool if Purdue scored 50 against Walters defense. Just saying.
Larry31: I don’t love this spread for UW to cover. But, I currently sit in last place in ATS standings. So, no surprise I’m picking U-Dub to cover.
misdreavus79: Words go here. Washington 30, Purdue 14
RockyMtnBlue: UDub is still pretty good at home, right? I mean Michigan screwed that narrative a couple weeks ago for themselves, but I think that’s still what we think about the puppies. Washington 34-10
MNW: See? Like this game! If you would’ve made this “UW -14.5”, I absolutely would’ve taken Purdue to cover. But UW -16.5? Oh no no no, monsieur. That tells me it’s Huskies all the way.
Also, Thump’s French lesson just reminds me again of the funniest announcer call of all time:
I have nothing to add, I just think that’s hilarious. The boys took a beating on that one. Huskies, 35-15.
UCLA Bruins @ (1) Ohio State Buckeyes
6:30PM | NBC | Ohio State -31.5 | O/U 49.5
Straight Up: Ohio State 12-0
Against the Spread: Ohio State 7-5
BRT: That is a nasty spread, but UCLA’s defense is not good and will have a tough time with OSU’s talent. I am genuinely afraid for Nico Iamaleava in this one, and hope he’s still in one piece at the end. If he is, that’s the real win for the Bruins.
Thumpasaurus: OSU will stand with both feet on the brake pedal and it won’t stop them from putting up 42.
Larry31: Angina with a crazy 30+ point spread. UCLA covers. OSU takes it easy and rests their dinged up players, thus not covering thai gigantic spread.
misdreavus79: Really? Right in front of my primetime? Ohio State name your score, UCLA 10
RockyMtnBlue: Give me “Game I won’t watch” for 100, Alex. Ohio State 42-6.
MNW: West Coast travel, Buckeyes don’t need to run it up at this point as long as they’re winning by 3 scores or more. Ohio State, 38-10.
Too Cowardly to Play this Week:
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
misdreavus79: Teams having a bye in the middle of november is kind of weird.
Ah shit they’re going play Nebraska off a bye.
MNW: Any week without Rutgers football is a good week.
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