Big Ten Football Week 13 Picks, Predictions, Previews
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
Oregon-USC! Nebraska-Penn State! Illinois-wisconsin! All of these games are certainly equal!
My department is currently trying to make some hires for positions that are going to be vacant thanks to retirements—just like-for-like hires is all we’re asking, a tenure-track position for a retiring tenured faculty member. In the last two years our enrollments have gone up by 150-200 students a year, despite the fact we’re supposedly heading over a demographic cliff—excuse me, a demographic bubble now, since administrators won’t ever say “I was wrong and don’t deserve this job I got my never saying no to anyone and just leeching my way up the ladder”—our department’s enrollments, student credit hours, and number of majors/minors have gone up, up, up.
We will not be getting a tenure-track hire this year, and likely not next year, with another retirement.
In a true twist of silliness, because we are currently paying for additional student teacher supervision, we would actually save money even by hiring a tenure-line faculty member who can supervise student teachers.
Does that matter? No, because these cowards have gotten to where they are by promising to get back at the real villains of higher education, the tenure-line faculty teaching four classes and 150+ students a semester. Do more, they say, and do it with less money and less protection.
Anyway, the other junior faculty member and I stood out in the rain today—we were both walking to our cars and just got started up on the subject—and just kvetched for a good 45 minutes. It was cathartic.
About Last Week
- misdreavus storms into 2nd with a 7-1 week. You could make some money picking like that.
- By far our best week of the year collectively with 11/12 pickers getting at least half right. Naturally the one person with a bad week was MNWildcat, the season leader.
- Half the field was a perfect 8-0 straight up. Pretty sure that means this slate of games sucked.
The Picks
AUTHOR’S NOTE: There are no polls this week. I’ll not blame you for assuming that was just me being a lazy old man, but in fact you can thank our good corporate overlords. -RMB[Ed. note: and MNW, for not clearly communicating things to RMB.]
All times CDT, because reasons.
Saturday, November 22
Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ (1) Ohio State Buckeyes
11AM | FOX | Ohio State -33.5 | O/U 56.5
Straight Up: Ohio State 12-0
Against the Spread: Ohio State 11-1
Thumpasaurus: Rutger bad buckeye good
HoustonBoiler: Death Star gonna Death Star.
RockyMtnBlue: That’s a really big line. But then OSU had a really big line last week, too. Death Star is rounding into form at the perfect time (except for Michigan fans like me. We think it’s a pretty damned imperfect time). Ohio State 42-3
BRT: Have fun, Rutgers. Don’t die.
MNW: i’m in danger dot gif Ohio State, 35-3.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Northwestern Wildcats
11AM | BTN | Northwestern -5.5 | O/U 41.5
Straight Up: Northwestern 10-2
Against the Spread: Tied 6-6
Thumpasaurus: Nerncats nearly got away with a vintage Pat Fitzgerald Incident, getting doubled up in yardage in a game that came down to a field goal. It’s clear that Fitzgerald and Braun had a meeting where the power was passed down to the latter but he’s still figuring out how to control it. This game is going to be so stupid.
HoustonBoiler: Northwestern has been playing better than Minnesota of late. Had this game been at the Bunny Hutch® on the lake, Minnesota would have been able to row, row, row. Last time I checked, there’s no water on West Addison Street. Northwestern wins and covers.
RockyMtnBlue: The ceiling on dumb for this game is pretty damned high. It’s been a shitty week. PLEASE give me all the dumb. ALL OF IT! Northwestern 19-13
BRT: This is a tough one. Northwestern is very good at coming up just short, and Minnesota seems to come up lucky pretty often. I picked what I hope to see rather than what is most likely in our demented timeline.
MNW: They. Have. Never. Won. In. Wrigley. STOP.
Anyway, rooted in actual experience: Northwestern is 125th in the country for third-down defense (allowing 46% of conversions). On offense, when they do make it to the red zone, Northwestern has scored on 32 of its 35 red zone possessions—but fully 16 of those have been field goals. The only two teams close to that rate of 50% of red zone scores being field goals are Nevada (10 of their 22 red zone scores) and UMass (7 of 15).
Northwestern has been leaving points on the board and failing to make opponents do the same. I see no reason that doesn’t continue. Minnesota, 20-16.
(16) Southern Cal Trojans @ (6) Oregon Ducks
2:30PM | CBS | Oregon -9.5 | O/U 60.5
Straight Up: Oregon 12-0
Against the Spread: Oregon 7-5
Thumpasaurus: If USC was on the level of Oregon (i.e. national title contender), they wouldn’t have lost to Bret Bielema.
HoustonBoiler: USC has already lost 2 games and Oregon is the best team on USC’s schedule. Oregon wins and covers, thus ending USC’s playoff hopes.
RockyMtnBlue: Could be a real game. That would be nice. It’s been good policy, though, to just pick Oregon to cover. Oregon 35-24
BRT: Picked based on USC sometimes being assy on the road.
MNW: I genuinely thought this was at USC. Shit. Oregon, 35-28.
Michigan State Spartans @ Iowa Hawkeyes
2:30PM | FS1 | Iowa -16.5 | O/U 42.5
Straight Up: Iowa 12-0
Against the Spread: Iowa 8-4
Thumpasaurus: Michigan State couldn’t contain Kaytron Allen and now they have to deal with the Big Ten’s rushing touchdowns leader Mark Gronowski.
HoustonBoiler: MSU is in for a world of pain in Kinnick. Iowa wins and covers.
RockyMtnBlue: I’ve believed in MSU pretty much all year, much to the detriment of my ATS record. On the other hand MSU is a rival so fuck ‘em. Iowa 24-14
BRT: Iowa exorcises last week’s embarrassment against the hapless Spartans.
MNW: Iowa can name it. Michigan State’s that bad and the Hawkeyes eat up bad teams like this. Iowa, 28-10.
(18) Michigan Wolverines @ Maryland Terrapins
3PM | BTN | Michigan -13.5 | O/U 45.5
Straight Up: Michigan 12-0
Against the Spread: Michigan 9-3
Thumpasaurus: God I miss the way the Big Ten was before the last 15 years of conference realignment. The percentage of conference games not involving my team that I care about has plummeted in the last couple years. That was what I really liked about the Big Ten West: we were guaranteed to play at least iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota and Nern.
That and how winnable it seemed.
HoustonBoiler: Thump is absolutely right regarding the B1G West! I cared much more about those games with Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Iowa, and wisconsin than games against Maryland, Oregon, USC, etc. Oh well. All that to say that Michigan wins and covers.
RockyMtnBlue: As a general rule, Michigan doesn’t cover in College Park. As a general rule, Michigan doesn’t cover the week before OSU. Michigan is a pretty terrible road team this year. So what I’m trying to say here is I don’t know who will win, but I’m pretty damned sure Michigan isn’t going to cover 13.5. Let’s just assume the horseshoe up Moore’s ass works for one more week. Michigan 20-17
BRT: October AND November Maryland continues.
MNW: A classic Big Ten East game, meaning I don’t care one iota. There’s no way Michigan can play as badly as they did last week. Wolverines, 28-7.
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Penn State Nittany Lions
6PM | NBC | Penn State -9.5 | O/U 44.5
Straight Up: Penn State 11-1
Against the Spread: Nebraska 8-4
Thumpasaurus: Penn State does not lack talent. Perhaps they now have confidence.
HoustonBoiler: Penn State might, just might be getting their act together. Enough to win, but Nebraska covers in a one score loss.
RockyMtnBlue: I’m really REALLY tempted to pick Nebraska for the outright upset. Don’t feel like I can quite do that with the game in Happy Valley and Penn State playing better. I think they come close, though. Penn State 21-20
BRT: This will likely not go well for us. But I won’t be mad if TJ & Co. decide to prove me wrong.
MNW: To be fair to me, I’ve been drinking. Huskers, 24-21.
Illinois Fighting Illini @ Wisconsin Badgers
6:30PM | BTN | Illinois -9.5 | O/U 42.5
Straight Up: Illinois 12-0
Against the Spread: Illinois 11-1
Thumpasaurus: It’s entirely possible that the Illini defense is not as bad as I thought it was. It probably is though. Nevertheless, the offense should get at least 21 which will be more than enough.
HoustonBoiler: I have to believe that Bert takes special pleasure in beating wisconsin, while running up the score. Illinois wins and covers.
RockyMtnBlue: Wisconsin finally broke through with a conference win last week, and I’m tempted to ride that to a cover this week. But I checked and it turns out Fickell is still the coach. Illinois 28-10
BRT: Wisconsin is off the mat a bit, but not enough to knock out a solid Illinois team.
MNW: I hope everyone has a terrible time. Illinois, 24-14.
Washington Huskies @ UCLA Bruins
9:30PM | NBC | Washington -11.5 | O/U 52.5
Straight Up: Washington 11-1
Against the Spread: Tied 6-6
Thumpasaurus: Washington is pretty good as long as they’re on the West Coast.
HoustonBoiler: While it’s not at home, this game is on the West Coast and the Huskies are used to traveling to LA. Washington wins and covers.
RockyMtnBlue: Thump and HB believe in West Coast Washington. I believe in Home Washington. They still win, but it’s way closer than they want. Washington 27-24
BRT: It appears Nico is day-to-day, which I typically interpret as a “not gonna play” status. Washington can probably win this.
MNW: Who are these teams? Why are you asking me to pick them? Huskies, 27-21.
Too Cowardly to Play this Week:
(2) Indiana Hoosiers
Purdue Boilermakers
MNW: Resting up for a real Bucket donnybrook, no doubt.
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos