Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 1
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The first full week of games produced an upset (Rutgers) , a near upset (Michigan) , a couple of close calls (Michigan State and Oregon, and some would say Washington), and a solid win by a team where the game was expected to be close. Let’s see what those results do to where the teams were ranked before those games.
Polls
The two major polls were released today and there are 7 Big Ten teams ranked in both the AP Poll and in the Coaches Poll. (AP/Coaches)
- Ohio State (1/1)
- Indiana (5/5)
- Oregon (6/6)
- USC (14/14)
- Penn State (16/16)
- Washington (19/19)
- Iowa (21/21)
In addition, Michigan is still ranked in the Coaches poll, but is #28 in the AP. Illinois (36/28), Minnesota (38/39), and UCLA (35/45) are getting votes in both polls. Nebraska is getting votes in the Coaches poll (#36), but not the AP.
Composite Ranking
There are two big caveats to the Composite Rankings this week. The first is that with just one game, many rankings are based at least partially on results from last season. The other caveat is that with some games being played on Sunday and Monday of this week, not all of the rankings have been updated at the time of this article. I expect that Composite Rankings will change as more other rankings are added to the Composite, although they shouldn’t change by more than a few places among all teams.
As a reminder, the Composite Rankings are a combination of a number of different rankings including the two major polls along with some computer rankings (some of which were used in the days of the BCS rankings). You can find the current rankings here: https://masseyratings.com/ranks
The graph above shows how each of the Big Ten teams ranked among all FBS teams at the end of last season, then in the preseason this season, and now after the week 1 games.
Some may be wondering how far Michigan fell after their near-loss to Western Michigan. According to this ranking, they are now ranked #20, which is down 5 places since the preseason.
It shouldn’t be a shock to see a new team at the bottom of the Big Ten. Rutgers’ loss to Massachusetts was the upset of the weekend in the Big Ten. They had been a nearly 30 point favorite in that game and lost by 16.
Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland, and UCLA are on big upwards trajectories to start this season compared to last season. It is a bit of a surprise to see Michigan State move up that much considering they had a tough time against Toledo last weekend. The post-game win expectancy from SP+ for Michigan State was only 46.6%. The winners in all of the other games involving Big Ten teams was at least 94% -and yes, that included Michigan, Oregon, and Washington (and Notre Dame and Massachusetts).
SP+
Bill Connelly has updated his SP+ rankings. Here is where the Big Ten teams are ranked among all FBS teams.
- Ohio State: 1
- Indiana: 6
- Oregon: 7
- Penn State: 13
- Iowa: 16
- USC: 17
- Michigan: 26
- Nebraska: 28
- Washington: 29
- Minnesota: 34
- UCLA: 36
- Maryland: 37
- Northwestern: 40
- Illinois: 42
- Purdue: 68
- Michigan State: 71
- Wisconsin: 74
- Rutgers: 78
Several teams are higher here than in the Composite Ranking while others are lower. Most aren’t different by more than 10 places, but there are some exceptions. Illinois is 14 places lower here than in the Composite Ranking. Maryland is 25 places higher here. Purdue is 17 places higher here. And Wisconsin is 18 places lower here. (UW is 10 places lower here.)
6 of UW’s Big Ten opponents are ranked above them and just 3 are ranked below, so UW will have plenty of opportunities to move up or down over the course of the season.U
ESPN FPI Win Projections
ESPN’s FPI has updated their win projections for all teams after the week 1 (and week 0) games. The overall FPI rank is in ().
- Ohio State (2): 10.4
- Indiana (6): 10.4
- Oregon (8): 9.8
- USC (13): 8.5
- Penn State (14): 9.8
- Michigan (21): 7.0
- Nebraska (23): 7.5
- Iowa (26): 7.9
- Washington (30): 6.9
- Illinois (45): 6.4
- UCLA (46): 6.5
- Wisconsin (53): 6.0
- Maryland (56): 5.6
- Northwestern (57): 5.3
- Minnesota (59): 5.5
- Michigan State (62): 5.3
- Purdue (73): 3.9
- Rutgers (96): 2.8
UW dropped 4 places in the FPI rankings. But there were teams that dropped more. Michigan and Illinois both dropped 6 places. Wisconsin dropped 10 places. And Rutgers dropped 29 places. UCLA moved up the most, moving up 18 places. Nebraska moved up 7 places. None of the other teams moved up more than 5 places.
Here’s how UW’s win percentage changed for their remaining games:
| Week | Visitor | Home | Preseason | After Wk 1 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Utah State | Washington | 91.2% | 94.0% | +2.8% |
| 3 | Eastern Washington | Washington | 98.8% | 98.7% | -0.1% |
| 4 | Minnesota | Washington | 82.6% | 78.6% | -4.0% |
| 5 | Washington | USC | 22.6% | 20.6% | -2.0% |
| 6 | Iowa | Washington | 58.7% | 56.1% | -2.6% |
| 7 | Washington | Purdue | 70.5% | 71.2% | +0.7% |
| 9 | Washington | Nebraska | 43.2% | 34.8% | -8.4% |
| 10 | Penn State | Washington | 51.3% | 39.6% | -11.7% |
| 11 | Washington | Michigan State | 67.1% | 63.3% | -3.8% |
| 12 | Indiana | Washington | 23.8% | 20.6% | -3.2% |
| 13 | Washington | Oregon | 10.4% | 13.2% | +2.8% |
UW’s win percentage dropped in 8 of their remaining games. The only case where the favorite switched is week 10’s game against Penn State. UW had a slight edge before and now is the underdog. If you want a silver lining, at least UW improved their win expectancy against Oregon-slightly.
Week 2 Games
Here’s a look at win projections for the Big Ten teams for the week 2 games.
| Visitor | Home | SP+ | ESPN FPI | Massey |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutgers | Boston College | 53% | 37.8% | 49% |
| Howard | Indiana | 100% | 99.0% | 100% |
| Oklahoma | Michigan | 33% | 35.6% | 53% |
| Oregon | Oklahoma State | 90% | 93.0% | 97% |
| Penn State | Temple | 92% | 94.2% | 98% |
| Wake Forest | Purdue | 55% | 39.9% | 44% |
| Duke | Illinois | 58% | 61.4% | 62% |
| Maryland | Connecticut | 79% | 73.6% | 69% |
| Eastern Michigan | Michigan State | 88% | 91.0% | 96% |
| Mississippi State | Minnesota | 57% | 40.1% | 52% |
| Utah State | Washington | 95% | 94.0% | 96% |
| Bowling Green | Nebraska | 96% | 97.2% | 98% |
| San Diego State | UCLA | 71% | 67.1% | 78% |
| Western Illinois | Wisconsin | 99% | 99.0% | 100% |
| Iowa State | Iowa | 86% | 84.5% | 75% |
| Ohio State | Texas | 55% | 40.1% | 65% |
| Louisiana | USC | 95% | 96.9% | 98% |
The win projections are very similar except for 5 games. Rutgers is favored by SP+, but they are the underdog in the other two. Purdue is also favored by SP+, but is the underdog in the other two. Michigan is favored by Massey, but they are the underdog in the other two. And Minnesota and Ohio State are the underdog according to ESPN’s FPI, but they are favored by the other two.
Unlike last week, it looks like there could be some competitive games this week. A Big Ten team has a 90% or better chance (by all of the sites) in 7 of the games.
Also note that Northwestern has their bye this weekend; they will be playing 11 straight games after this weekend.
Final Notes
As we saw already this season, rankings at the beginning of the season don’t guarantee that teams deserved those rankings or will stay ranked (although Michigan did stay ranked-partially). It is also true that one game is not enough to determine how good or bad a team is. There are some teams that have moved up or dropped more than they deserve. Such is the nature of polls-lots of overreactions. The good news is that there are more games which will provide more data until we get to the playoffs where polls will not be the deciding factor.
Washington is ranked, so they have improved since last year; currently they are still in the upper tier (ranked) of the Big Ten. Given the opponents for their next 2 games, it is unlikely that will change much. By the time UW gets to conference play, however, they will have a chance to make some moves in the rankings-either up or down.
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