Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 11
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Two of the top teams in the Big Ten had to score with little time left in the game to get their wins, including Indiana’s first-ever win at Penn State. There were some other close games; four of the 7 Big Ten games were won by a TD or less. And, of course, one ranked Big Ten team lost to an unranked team.
Polls
Only 5 Big Ten teams are ranked in this week’s CFP rankings, and there continues to be 3 Big Ten teams in the top 10.
- Ohio State: 1
- Indiana: 2
- Oregon: 8
- USC: 17
- Michigan: 18
The full list of rankings can be found here: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx?year=2025
Here are the ranks in the other two major polls. (AP/Coaches)
- Ohio State (1/1)
- Indiana (2/2)
- Oregon (7/6)
- USC (17/18)
- Michigan (18/17)
Iowa (#29) and Illinois (#33) are getting votes in the AP poll. Iowa (#28), Illinois (#32), Washington (#33), and Nebraska (#35) are getting votes in the Coaches poll.
Composite Ranking
This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 80 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The “Cool Chart” this week shows the rankings over the last 5 weeks. (It was getting a bit hard to read with all of the ups and downs since the preseason-especially the first month and a half.)
The top 2 teams in the Big Ten switched places again. Ohio State is now the top team.
Rutgers and Wisconsin had the biggest gains after their wins while UW and Maryland had the biggest drops. Otherwise, the rankings remained very similar to what they’ve been over the last several weeks.
Note that there are 9 teams at #35 or above and 9 teams at #50 or below-a clear division between the upper half and the bottom half of the conference.
Other Rankings
The table below lists the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams in the Massey Composite plus 7 other rankings: SP+, FEI, ESPN’s FPI, Sagarin, CBS Sports, Kelly Ford (KFord), and SRS.
| School | Composite | SP+ | FPI | FEI | Sagarin | CBS | KFord | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 20 | 23 | 27 | 23 | 27 | 29 | 23 | 18 |
| Indiana | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| Iowa | 21 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 26 | 18 | 21 |
| Maryland | 75 | 61 | 65 | 55 | 73 | 75 | 65 | 66 |
| Michigan | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| Michigan State | 89 | 76 | 67 | 81 | 65 | 79 | 66 | 87 |
| Minnesota | 50 | 60 | 63 | 61 | 55 | 39 | 60 | 59 |
| Nebraska | 35 | 25 | 31 | 30 | 35 | 30 | 28 | 43 |
| Northwestern | 57 | 67 | 55 | 58 | 62 | 56 | 56 | 60 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Oregon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| Penn State | 54 | 20 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 69 | 20 | 53 |
| Purdue | 95 | 84 | 75 | 69 | 85 | 90 | 69 | 83 |
| Rutgers | 65 | 64 | 60 | 67 | 63 | 66 | 59 | 64 |
| UCLA | 78 | 77 | 68 | 62 | 67 | 70 | 67 | 77 |
| USC | 12 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 10 |
| Washington | 28 | 21 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 36 | 26 | 27 |
| Wisconsin | 71 | 90 | 62 | 65 | 57 | 80 | 61 | 76 |
The rankings for most of the Big Ten teams vary by 15 places or less. Penn State’s close loss to Indiana hasn’t kept them from being an anomaly; they are ranked in the top-25 in some of the rankings, but below 50 in the others. Despite their win, Wisconsin is another team that has a lot of variability; they are as high as #57 (Sagarin) and as low as #90 (SP+).
Maryland went down by 5 or more places in all of the rankings; they went down by 10 or more in over half of them. UW went down in all of the rankings, including by 11 in the CBS Sports ranking, but only by 2 in SP+.
Rutgers went up in all of the rankings by at least 3 places.
Washington may not be a top-25 team by most of the rankings, but they are still close to it in most of the other rankings.
F+ Rankings
We’re far enough into the season that the advanced stats should give us a good idea about which teams are good and which are not.
| School | F+ (Overall) | F+ Off | F+ Def | F+ ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 22 | 14 | 57 | 7 |
| Indiana | 2 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Iowa | 16 | 51 | 6 | 6 |
| Maryland | 58 | 89 | 31 | 29 |
| Michigan | 18 | 32 | 14 | 83 |
| Michigan State | 79 | 69 | 86 | 68 |
| Minnesota | 59 | 76 | 38 | 112 |
| Nebraska | 28 | 45 | 35 | 17 |
| Northwestern | 62 | 78 | 45 | 42 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 3 | 1 | 47 |
| Oregon | 3 | 7 | 4 | 35 |
| Penn State | 21 | 24 | 33 | 2 |
| Purdue | 74 | 77 | 71 | 37 |
| Rutgers | 64 | 20 | 117 | 80 |
| UCLA | 70 | 64 | 90 | 22 |
| USC | 12 | 1 | 48 | 24 |
| Washington | 23 | 21 | 37 | 97 |
| Wisconsin | 73 | 116 | 42 | 91 |
Nine of the top 25 overall teams are from the Big Ten, including the top3.
Eight of the top-25 offenses are from the Big Ten, including 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10.
In a conference that has historically known for their defenses, only 5 of the top 25 defenses are in the Big Ten-although 3 of them are in the top 5. And the good news for UW is that the next 2 defenses that they face are ranked #71 and #90.
Four of the top 10 special teams units are in the Big Ten, and 7 of the top 25. After the performance last weekend, Husky fans shouldn’t be surprised to UW as one of the worst in the Big Ten. They finished the 2024 season at #121; moved as high as #85, but they’ve dropped since then.
Week 12 Games
There are 8 Big Ten conference games this week.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | 1.7% | 0% | 1% | 1% | Ohio State | 98.3% | 100% | 99% | 99% |
| Wisconsin | 3.0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | Indiana | 97.0% | 99% | 98% | 98% |
| Purdue | 11.4% | 8% | 11% | 10% | Washington | 88.6% | 92% | 89% | 90% |
| Penn State | 79.3% | 87% | 84% | 82% | Michigan State | 20.7% | 13% | 16% | 18% |
| Minnesota | 4.2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | Oregon | 95.8% | 98% | 97% | 95% |
| Michigan | 79.2% | 94% | 80% | 76% | Northwestern | 20.8% | 6% | 20% | 24% |
| Maryland | 15.0% | 21% | 17% | 22% | Illinois | 85.0% | 97% | 83% | 78% |
| Iowa | 24.3% | 36% | 29% | 39% | USC | 75.7% | 64% | 71% | 61% |
As you can see, the win projections are very consistent for all of the Big Ten games this weekend.
Final Notes
The race for the Big Ten title appears to be down to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, and USC. It would take some significant upsets for it not to be one of those teams, especially Indiana. Michigan will likely need some help because even if they beat Ohio State, they need USC to lose another game. Oregon needs help as well. USC has a chance to establish itself as a top-10 team in its next two games (Iowa and at Oregon). If they win out, they may not make the Big Ten championship, but they should make the CFP.
Neither Michigan State nor Penn State has won a game since September. One of those streaks will end this weekend. Especially with the way Penn State played against Indiana, they have not only are the favorite this weekend, but they have a chance to win their last 3 games (at Michigan State, Nebraska, and at Rutgers) and become bowl-eligible.
Purdue hasn’t won a game since September 6th, and they haven’t won a conference game since Nov. 25, 2023. That last conference win was over Indiana who is their final opponent this season. Purdue was a slight favorite going into that game in 2023, but they will be a heavy underdog this year. And since they are an underdog this weekend, their next conference win might not come until 2026. While we don’t have the 2026 schedule yet, Purdue’s conference opponents for 2026 currently make it hard to see a chance at a win in 2026 (at Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Penn State, and UCLA; home against Maryland, Minnesota, Washington, and Wisconsin)-maybe Maryland or Wisconsin, but there is a lot that can happen between now and then.
Despite the loss last weekend, Washington is still one of the better teams in the Big Ten. There are still 4 more opportunities to show that. Considering the opponents that they face, if UW’s offense can’t get back on track over the next two weekends, then there is a real problem-even with the injuries. The problems with special teams is not likely something that will get fixed over the next 3 games (although mistakes can be minimized); it will likely need to be addressed in the off-season.
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