Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 13
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There was one upset in the Big Ten last weekend as Wisconsin beat a previously ranked Illinois team. Penn State showed that their win over Michigan State wasn’t a fluke by convincingly beating what had been a decent Nebraska team. And USC lost their chance at being in the playoffs by losing on the road in Eugene.
Polls
There are still 5 Big Ten teams are ranked in the CFP rankings-and there are 3 are in the top 6. Michigan moved up 3 places and USC’s loss dropped them just 2 places. Here are the Big Ten teams in the CFP:
- Ohio State: 1
- Indiana: 2
- Oregon: 6
- Michigan: 15
- USC: 17
The full list of CFP rankings can be found here: https://collegefootballplayoff.com/rankings.aspx
Here are the ranks in the other two major polls. (AP/Coaches)
- Ohio State (1/1)
- Indiana (2/2)
- Oregon (5/5)
- Michigan (15/15)
- USC (19/20)
Washington (#31), Iowa (#32), and Illinois (#37) received votes in the AP poll. Washington (#28), Iowa (#29), and Illinois and Penn State (tied at #34) received votes in the Coaches poll.
On a side note, UC Davis, which UW beat earlier this season, is #11 in the FCS Coaches poll.
Composite Ranking
This week the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 86 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following “Cool Chart” shows the changes since week 7 for the teams in the Big Ten.
(Note that last week the graph had Indiana at #1. That changed after publication as more rankings were added.) For the last month and a half, the same 3 teams have remained at the top of not just the Big Ten, but among the top in all of FBS.
Michigan State and Purdue remain the bottom 2 teams-that hasn’t changed in the last month. What has changed is Wisconsin. With wins over Washington and Illinois, they have moved up to #12 in the Big Ten (#59 nationally). Penn State has also moved up a lot since week 7; they are now at #36.
At one point this season (week 7), Nebraska was considered a top-25 team. Now they aren’t in the top-40.
About 3/4ths of the rankings in the Massey Composite have UW as a top-25 team.
Other Rankings
The table below lists the rankings for each of the Big Ten teams in 8 different rankings including the Massey Composite (which is used for the chart above). SP+, ESPN’s FPI, FEI, Sagarin, CBS Sports, Kelly Ford (KFord), and SRS.
| School | Composite | SP+ | FPI | FEI | Sagarin | CBS | KFord | SRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 31 | 32 | 32 | 26 | 31 | 38 | 27 | 25 |
| Indiana | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Iowa | 25 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 31 | 21 | 22 |
| Maryland | 80 | 68 | 70 | 64 | 80 | 80 | 68 | 72 |
| Michigan | 16 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 15 | 19 | 16 |
| Michigan State | 90 | 91 | 67 | 73 | 65 | 87 | 64 | 85 |
| Minnesota | 61 | 71 | 66 | 71 | 59 | 52 | 63 | 69 |
| Nebraska | 42 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 45 | 42 | 34 | 54 |
| Northwestern | 56 | 62 | 56 | 50 | 61 | 55 | 56 | 55 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Oregon | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| Penn State | 36 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 12 | 53 | 15 | 32 |
| Purdue | 100 | 95 | 81 | 79 | 90 | 100 | 75 | 91 |
| Rutgers | 70 | 72 | 61 | 70 | 64 | 70 | 60 | 66 |
| UCLA | 82 | 85 | 79 | 72 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 76 |
| USC | 15 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 11 | 12 |
| Washington | 19 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 26 | 20 | 17 |
| Wisconsin | 59 | 88 | 58 | 52 | 46 | 73 | 55 | 64 |
Illinois, Maryland, and Nebraska dropped in all of the rankings, in some cases by more than 10 places. UCLA dropped in all but one (they were unchanged in SP+). Washington and Wisconsin were the only two teams that went up in all of the rankings. Wisconsin went up by more than 10 in half of the rankings. Penn State went up in all but one of the rankings (they were also unchanged in SP+).
Penn State may have gone up in most of the rankings, but there is still no agreement on where they should be ranked. They are a top-20 team in 5 of the rankings, but then they are #53 in the CBS Sports ranking.
Similarly Wisconsin is as high as #46 in Sagarin’s ranking but #88 in SP+. Michigan State and Purdue are the only other teams that vary by more than 20 places. (Nebraska varies by 20 places.)
Washington is in the top-25 in all but one of the rankings-and they are #26 in that other one.
F+ Rankings
Here are the F+ rankings (combination of FEI and SP+) after the week 13 games.
| School | F+ (Overall) | F+ Off | F+ Def | F+ ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 27 | 17 | 57 | 13 |
| Indiana | 2 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| Iowa | 20 | 60 | 7 | 1 |
| Maryland | 66 | 96 | 41 | 29 |
| Michigan | 19 | 25 | 18 | 100 |
| Michigan State | 77 | 75 | 78 | 101 |
| Minnesota | 71 | 73 | 64 | 90 |
| Nebraska | 37 | 53 | 44 | 16 |
| Northwestern | 58 | 67 | 53 | 19 |
| Ohio State | 1 | 11 | 1 | 40 |
| Oregon | 3 | 5 | 5 | 28 |
| Penn State | 18 | 20 | 26 | 2 |
| Purdue | 87 | 92 | 80 | 31 |
| Rutgers | 72 | 36 | 118 | 51 |
| UCLA | 89 | 83 | 92 | 36 |
| USC | 16 | 3 | 49 | 77 |
| Washington | 17 | 15 | 22 | 86 |
| Wisconsin | 70 | 111 | 30 | 67 |
The sort-of good news is that UW is not last or even second-to-last in Special Teams; the two Michigan teams hold those ‘honors’. Minnesota is also below UW’s Special Teams.
Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Michigan, and Washington are the teams in the top-25 in both offense and defense. Penn State is close-they are top 25 in offense and #26 in defense.
Week 14 Games
This week all 18 Big Ten teams are in action. This is the first weekend that has been true since October 11 (week 7). Most are playing their rivalry games (I don’t think Maryland-Michigan State is a rivalry game). Here are the win percentages from different sources for each of the games.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | KFord | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 60.1% | 68% | 61% | 60% | Nebraska | 39.9% | 32% | 39% | 40% |
| Oregon | 75.1% | 73% | 69% | 66% | Washington | 24.9% | 27% | 31% | 34% |
| Wisconsin | 51.2% | 52% | 49% | 33% | Minnesota | 48.8% | 48% | 51% | 67% |
| UCLA | 5.0% | 12% | 5% | 4% | USC | 95.0% | 88% | 95% | 96% |
| Penn State | 82.8% | 88% | 83% | 82% | Rutgers | 17.2% | 12% | 17% | 18% |
| Ohio State | 78.2% | 87% | 79% | 82% | Michigan | 21.8% | 13% | 21% | 18% |
| Northwestern | 27.1% | 21% | 25% | 24% | Illinois | 72.9% | 79% | 75% | 76% |
| Maryland | 45.5% | 45% | 46% | 58% | Michigan State | 54.5% | 55% | 54% | 42% |
| Indiana | 97.0% | 98% | 98% | 98% | Purdue | 3.0% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
There is good agreement on all but 2 of the games. The first is with the Minnesota-Wisconsin game. Two of the 4 sites have Wisconsin as the favorite; the other two have Minnesota. The other one is the Maryland-Michigan State game. SP+ has Maryland as the favorite while the other sites have Minnesota as the favorite.
Final Notes
Normally we would have a good idea of how good or bad teams are after each have played 11 games. But this year that is not the case with some of the teams in the Big Ten. Both Penn State and Wisconsin have played poorly at times, but they also have played much better than their records indicate.
The winner of the Penn State-Rutgers game will be bowl-eligible. The Big Ten will then have 12 teams eligible to play in a bowl game. And it looks like 3 or 4 of the Big Ten teams could make the CFP.
If both Indiana and Ohio State win this weekend, they will play each other in the Big Ten Championship game. If either loses, then either Oregon or Michigan (or both) could sneak into that game.
There was some debate earlier in the season about whether UW should be ranked in the top 25. But no sooner did they get ranked, they then lost their next game. They are not currently ranked in the top-25 in the major polls, but there should be no question that they will be ranked if they beat Oregon on Saturday (and continue to be unranked if they lose).
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