Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 3
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All but 4 of the Big Ten teams have finished the non-conference portion of their schedule; and half of the remaining teams will finish this weekend. Most of the non-conference games last weekend were not particularly helpful since there were large margins of victory over teams that they were expected to handle easily. There were obviously a few exceptions since there were a couple of conference games and a couple of non-conference games against P4 opponents. Unfortunately, those P4 non-conference games did not go well for the Big Ten teams.
Maryland lost their first non-conference game since 2019. Then there was Rutgers which has now lost all three of their games this season.
All but 2 of the Big Ten teams scored at least 34 points in their games-including both Rutgers and Purdue, even though both lost their games. Michigan State, which scored just 10 against Notre Dame, and Maryland, which scored 26 against Virginia Tech, were the two teams which failed to score at least 34.
Polls
There are now 7 Big Ten teams in the AP poll and 8 Big Ten teams in the Coaches poll. Here are the rankings (AP/Coaches).
- Indiana (5/4) down 1 in AP
- Ohio State (7/7) down 1 in both polls
- USC (12/12) down 1 in Coaches
- Penn State (13/14) up 1 in both polls
- Iowa (17/17) up 2 in AP and up 3 in Coachs
- Michigan (18/18) up 1 in both polls
- Oregon (20/16) up 1 in the AP and up 2 in Coaches
- Washington (NR/23) up 1 in Coaches
Washington is still at #26 in the AP poll. UCLA (37/37) and Nebraska (42/40) are getting votes in both polls. Northwestern (#42) is getting votes in the Coaches poll.
Composite Ranking
With more games this season the rankings in the Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) are reflecting more about this season than last season. The following ‘Cool Chart’ shows the changes since the preseason.
The big changes this week are by Northwestern and Wisconsin. Northwestern had their win over Colorado. Wisconsin beat Eastern Michigan by 44; not sure if that deserves moving up 9 places. UW’s next opponent, Minnesota, moved up 6 places. Michigan State lost to Notre Dame but still moved up 2 places-likely because they kept the game relatively close (Notre Dame was only up by 7 at halftime) and kept Notre Dame to their lowest point total (27) so far this season. Rutgers also moved up slightly despite losing to USC.
Since the preseason, UCLA is up the most (+26). Michigan State (+18), Northwestern (+15), Nebraska (+12), and Maryland (+10) are up at least 10 places. Illinois (-15), Minnesota (-12), Oregon (-17), Rutgers (-50), and Washington (-14) are all down at least 10 places since the preseason.
SP+
Bill Connelly has updated his SP+ rankings of all college football teams, including FBS, FCS, DII, D3, and NAIA. Here is where the Big Ten teams rank among all teams. Last week’s rank is in ().
- Ohio State: 1 (2) +1
- Indiana: 4 (5) +1
- Oregon: 5 (9) +4
- USC: 8 (12) +4
- Penn State: 12 (16) +4
- Iowa: 18 (26) +8
- Michigan: 21 (25) +4
- Nebraska: 23 (27) +4
- Washington: 27 (33) +6
- Illinois: 33 (47) +14
- UCLA: 40 (38) -2
- Maryland: 43 (39) -5
- Northwestern: 44 (42) -2
- Minnesota: 51 (55) +4
- Wisconsin: 56 (66) +10
- Michigan State: 65 (60) -5
- Purdue: 75 (78) +3
- Rutgers: 77 (81) +4
This early in the season SP+, along with many rankings, use data from the previous season. As the season goes on they use less and less data from the previous season since there is more data from the current season.
As you can see, most of the Big Ten teams improved in the last week. Illinois and Wisconsin both improved 10 or more places. UCLA, Maryland, Northwestern, and Michigan State were the only teams that did not move up.
Six of UW’s conference opponents are currently ranked above them.
F+ Comparison
F+ is a combination of Brian Fremeau’s FEI and Bill Connelly’s SP+. While 3 or 4 games may not be enough data for most teams to see where they are this season (especially since there have been a lot of games against lower-level competition), it can still be helpful to see where teams are now compared to the end of last season because several teams have already shown that they are different than last year.
| School | Final 2025 | Current 2026 | 2025 Off | 2026 Off | 2025 Def | 2026 Def | 2026 ST | 2026 ST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 23 | 31 | 18 | 19 | 47 | 56 | 23 | 17 |
| Indiana | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Iowa | 12 | 18 | 47 | 54 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Maryland | 68 | 50 | 96 | 50 | 53 | 46 | 41 | 54 |
| Michigan | 22 | 21 | 26 | 32 | 25 | 11 | 83 | 95 |
| Michigan State | 78 | 60 | 64 | 63 | 76 | 69 | 79 | 44 |
| Minnesota | 66 | 54 | 76 | 70 | 48 | 41 | 102 | 74 |
| Nebraska | 46 | 28 | 51 | 24 | 57 | 37 | 16 | 46 |
| Northwestern | 44 | 45 | 68 | 65 | 35 | 31 | 21 | 23 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 63 | 69 |
| Oregon | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 24 |
| Penn State | 16 | 11 | 19 | 14 | 27 | 12 | 2 | 4 |
| Purdue | 83 | 72 | 95 | 51 | 83 | 99 | 30 | 29 |
| Rutgers | 67 | 87 | 24 | 61 | 113 | 110 | 47 | 75 |
| UCLA | 86 | 38 | 91 | 25 | 90 | 63 | 28 | 53 |
| USC | 15 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 44 | 47 | 74 | 41 |
| Washington | 13 | 25 | 15 | 36 | 13 | 17 | 91 | 93 |
| Wisconsin | 74 | 47 | 115 | 79 | 28 | 18 | 71 | 86 |
Rutgers and Washington are the two Big Ten schools that have dropped the most since the end of last season, -20 and -12, respectively. Seven Big Ten teams are up more than 10 places, led by UCLA (+48).
Probably not coincidently, Rutgers and Washington are the two Big Ten schools whose rank for offense is also down at least 10 places. Five Big Ten teams have seen a significant improvement in offense so far: UCLA (+66), Maryland (+46), Purdue (+44), and Wisconsin (+36).
UCLA’s defense has also improve (+27). Nebraska (+20), Penn State (+15), and Michigan (+14) are the other teams whose defensive rank is up at least 10 places. Purdue’s defense is the only one whose rank dropped more than 10 places.
There are some changes both ways in the Special Teams ranks. Michigan State, Minnesota, and USC have improved the most while Maryland, Rutgers, UCLA, and Wisconsin have dropped the most. UW is down slightly, but I think most fans would argue that UW’s Special Teams is improved. I’d say that UW’s current rank is based a lot on last year’s data, but that doesn’t explain the big changes in other teams’ rank. Still, I think that there is too little data from this year and I would expect UW’s Special Teams rank to improve as long as the kickers (and punter) are more consistent.
Win Projections
ESPN’s FPI has updated their win projections for all FBS teams after the week 3 games.
- Ohio State: 9.7 (down 0.4)
- Indiana: 10.5 (unchanged)
- Oregon: 8.2 (up 0.4)
- Penn State: 10.1 (up 0.2)
- USC: 8.3 (down 0.3)
- Michigan: 8.2 (unchanged)
- Nebraska: 8.2 (down 0.1)
- Iowa: 8.1 (up 0.3)
- Northwestern: 6.9 (up 1.4)
- UCLA: 7.6 (up 0.2)
- Illinois: 5.4 (unchanged)
- Washington: 6.2 (down 0.1)
- Maryland: 5.8 (down 0.5)
- Wisconsin: 6.1 (up 0.4)
- Michigan State: 5.7 (down 0.3)
- Minnesota: 4.5 (up 0.2)
- Purdue: 3.2 (down 0.7)
- Rutgers: 2.1 (unchanged)
Most teams had their win projections change very little in the last week. The exception was Northwestern which is up to 6.9 wins.
Week 4 Games
Here’s a look at win projections for the week 4 games in the Big Ten.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard | 2.1% | 0% | 0% | Rutgers | 97.9% | 100% | 100% |
| Northwestern | 10.5% | 3% | 10% | Indiana | 89.5% | 97% | 90% |
| Illinois | 4.7% | 4% | 9% | Ohio State | 95.3% | 96% | 91% |
| Iowa | 34.9% | 40% | 49% | Michigan | 65.1% | 60% | 51% |
| Minnesota | 26.5% | 19% | 28% | Washington | 73.5% | 81% | 72% |
| Nebraska | 71.5% | 59% | 73% | Michigan State | 28.5% | 41% | 27% |
| Oregon | 54.0% | 60% | 51% | USC | 46.0% | 40% | 49% |
| Notre Dame | 96.4% | 95% | 95% | Purdue | 3.6% | 5% | 5% |
| UCLA | 42.7% | 50% | 47% | Maryland | 57.3% | 50% | 53% |
| Wisconsin | 12.4% | 8% | 15% | Penn State | 87.6% | 92% | 85% |
All of the Big Ten teams are playing this weekend. (The next time that will happen is the weekend of November 14.) Most teams are starting conference play. And with conference games, there are expected to be some close games. Iowa-Michigan, Oregon-USC, and UCLA-Maryland are expected to be close.
There are 2 non-conference games this weekend. Rutgers is expected to get their first win of the season while Purdue looks to have a tough time at home against Notre Dame.
Final Notes
It is still very early in the season. We’ve already seen some surprising results in non-conference play, so we may not really know how good (or bad) each of these teams really is; but this weekend’s games should help to determine that-at least for the teams playing conference games.
As mentioned above, there are now 2 Big Ten teams that are 1-0 in conference play: UCLA and USC. USC did not look as dominant as expected-and the USC defense struggled. That could be an issue with Oregon coming to town this weekend. Purdue kept the game close in the first half, but UCLA pulled away in the second half. Is Purdue that good-playing close on the road? Or does UCLA have some issues that the better teams on their schedule can exploit?
Two of those 3 teams haven’t played a P4 school yet, so we’ll see how well those defenses. And hopefully UW’s offense can improve since they have to face all 3 of those schools.
For Washington, this weekend’s game is looking like not only a ‘must win’, but they also need to continue to show some improvement or else this could be a tough season. ESPN’s FPI has UW as the favorite in only one more game after this weekend (at Purdue). Massey has UW favored in just 2 (at Purdue and at Michigan State). A solid win this weekend (e.g. actually beat the spread) could give the team (and fans) the confidence they need against the rest of their Big Ten opponents.
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