Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 7
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The Big Ten game that had been anticipated all season happened as the previous two national champions met in Bloomington. The result was a winning streak that came to an end-by a matter of inches (if you saw the play at the end, you’d agree). The other two ranked Big Ten teams that played won their games. Most of the Big Ten games last weekend were very close-only UW and UCLA ended up winning by double-digits.
The real story in college football last weekend wasn’t in the Big Ten as five of the top-7 teams in the AP poll all lost-several to unranked teams. Let’s see how that (and the close Big Ten games) impacted the rankings of the Big Ten teams.
Polls
There are 7 Big Ten teams ranked in the Coaches Poll and 6 in the AP Poll. Here are Big Ten teams in the polls (AP/Coaches):
- Ohio State (3/2) up 1 in the AP poll and up 3 in the Coaches
- Indiana (6/6) down 1 in the AP and down 2 in the Coaches
- UCLA (9/10) Up 3 in the AP and up 2 in the Coaches
- Iowa (15/14) up 2 in the AP and up 2 in the Coaches
- USC (16/15) up 3 in the AP and unchanged in the Coaches
- Northwestern (24/23) up 1 in the AP and moved into the Coaches (was getting enough votes to be #26)
- Oregon (NR/25) unchanged in the Coaches
Indiana was not ’punished’ much for their close loss to Ohio State; they were likely helped by the other losses among the top teams. Most of the changes for the Big Ten teams were minor. USC seems to have benefitted by not playing last weekend-and by both Texas and Missouri losing.
Oregon is #27 in the AP poll. No other Big Ten team is getting votes in the AP, but there are 3 other Big Ten teams getting votes in the Coaches poll. Nebraska is #31, Michigan is #35, and Wisconsin is #37 in the Coaches poll. That makes a total of 10 Big Ten teams getting at least some votes in at least one of the polls.
Composite Ranking
The Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 87 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following ‘Cool Chart’ shows the changes since the preseason.
Not much change this week. The biggest change is drop by Purdue. The momentum from their win streak is gone, especially after being dominated at home by the Huskies. There was also a big jump by Rutgers-and corresponding drop by Maryland. (You’d expect that Rutgers should have moved above Maryland-maybe by next week if Maryland continues to lose.)
UCLA is up the most since the preseason; now 54 places. Coach Chesney seems to have that program going in the right direction. Northwestern and Purdue are both up 25 or more places since the preseason. Rutgers (-42), Washington (-40), Illinois (-38), Penn State (-34), and Maryland (-32) are the programs down more than 25 places since the preseason.
Other Rankings
There are other rankings of all FBS teams. Here is a table comparing the Massey Composite with some of the more popular rankings. (Note that some of these other rankings are included in the Massey Composite, but not all of them.) This should provide an image of how consistent the rankings are.
| School | Massey Composite | SP+ | ESPN FPI | CBS Sports | Sagarin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 64 | 52 | 53 | 63 | 50 |
| Indiana | 8 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Iowa | 20 | 22 | 25 | 14 | 18 |
| Maryland | 96 | 88 | 85 | 107 | 76 |
| Michigan | 37 | 23 | 32 | 37 | 34 |
| Michigan State | 81 | 79 | 61 | 99 | 62 |
| Minnesota | 57 | 60 | 72 | 42 | 51 |
| Nebraska | 24 | 16 | 15 | 29 | 19 |
| Northwestern | 23 | 26 | 24 | 19 | 26 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Oregon | 17 | 11 | 10 | 31 | 8 |
| Penn State | 51 | 47 | 28 | 58 | 36 |
| Purdue | 60 | 73 | 60 | 82 | 52 |
| Rutgers | 103 | 91 | 83 | 104 | 78 |
| UCLA | 5 | 19 | 31 | 7 | 13 |
| USC | 21 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 21 |
| Washington | 58 | 44 | 52 | 60 | 41 |
| Wisconsin | 30 | 43 | 39 | 32 | 28 |
The Sagarin ratings include FCS teams. South Dakota State is ranked #71, which means that they are ranked above Maryland and Rutgers.
There are some noticeable disagreements in these rankings. Five teams vary by 30 or more places including Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Penn State, and Purdue. UCLA and Oregon are each in the top-10 in at least one ranking but not even in the top-30 in another.
Four of the Big Ten teams are in the top-25 in all of these rankings: Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, and USC. Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern (plus Oregon and UCLA) are other teams that are in the top-25 in at least one ranking.
F+ Ratings
The F+ Ratings (and rankings) are a combination of the FEI Rating and the SP+ Rating. It includes an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams.
| Rank | Off | Def | ST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 49 | 21 | 91 | 15 |
| Indiana | 5 | 9 | 6 | 44 |
| Iowa | 19 | 55 | 16 | 2 |
| Maryland | 81 | 73 | 86 | 70 |
| Michigan | 25 | 60 | 13 | 86 |
| Michigan State | 70 | 74 | 72 | 10 |
| Minnesota | 60 | 90 | 42 | 41 |
| Nebraska | 16 | 32 | 19 | 88 |
| Northwestern | 23 | 29 | 30 | 26 |
| Ohio State | 2 | 5 | 1 | 71 |
| Oregon | 12 | 28 | 9 | 8 |
| Penn State | 33 | 46 | 24 | 45 |
| Purdue | 61 | 40 | 103 | 3 |
| Rutgers | 90 | 45 | 124 | 57 |
| UCLA | 18 | 37 | 22 | 65 |
| USC | 15 | 1 | 59 | 53 |
| Washington | 44 | 52 | 34 | 76 |
| Wisconsin | 34 | 77 | 12 | 63 |
Nine Big Ten teams are in the top 25 overall. Michigan and Nebraska are top-25 teams here, and in some of the the other rankings above, but they are not in the top-25 in either of the polls. Indiana and Ohio State are in the top-25 for both offense and defense.
Only 4 of the top 25 offenses are in the Big Ten. Illinois has a top-25 offense, but they aren’t in the top-25 overall-because their defense is #91. Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Oregon, and UCLA are top-25 overall, but their offenses are not-and in the case of Iowa, they aren’t even in the top 50.
The Big Ten has 9 of the top-25 defenses. Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin all have top-25 defenses, but aren’t in the top-25 overall. Nebraska and USC are in the top-25 overall, but don’t have a top-25 defense-although Nebraska is very close at #26.
No Big Ten team is in the top-25 in all three phases while Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers, and Washington aren’t in the top-25 in any phase.
Win Total Projections
Here are the current win total projections from ESPN’s FPI. These reflect the current FPI rankings for the teams and their remaining opponents. Also included are the changes in the last week.
- Ohio State: 10.7 (up from 10.1)
- Indiana: 10.7 (down from 11.3)
- UCLA: 10.1 (up from 9.6)
- Iowa: 8.9 (up from 8.8)
- USC: 8.5 (up from 8.4)
- Nebraska: 8.4 (down from 8.8)
- Northwestern: 8.4 (up from 8.3)
- Oregon: 8.3 (up from 7.9)
- Wisconsin: 7.8 (down from 8.4)
- Penn State: 6.9 (down from 7.5)
- Michigan: 6.6 (up from 6.2)
- Washington: 5.3 (up from 4.5)
- Minnesota: 5.1 (unchanged)
- Illinois: 4.9 (up from 4.8)
- Purdue: 4.5 (down from 5.1)
- Michigan State: 3.7 (down from 4.0)
- Maryland: 3.1 (down from 3.8)
- Rutgers: 3.1 (up from 2.3)
Ten Big Ten teams have at least a 93% chance to get to 6 wins according to ESPN’s FPI. They give UW an 38.5% chance to get to 6 wins (and a bowl game); that is up from about 18% last week.
Week 8 Games
There are 6 games this week in the Big Ten; all are conference games. That means that Big Ten teams are off this week, including UW. Here’s a look at win projections for the week 8 games in the Big Ten.
| Visitor | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ | Home | ESPN FPI | Massey | SP+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana | 82% | 78% | 69% | Michigan | 18% | 22% | 31% |
| Iowa | 80% | 80% | 69% | Minnesota | 20% | 20% | 31% |
| Michigan State | 16% | 16% | 14% | UCLA | 84% | 84% | 86% |
| Oregon | 77% | 78% | 74% | Illinois | 23% | 22% | 26% |
| Rutgers | 9% | 19% | 12% | Northwestern | 91% | 81% | 88% |
| USC | 61% | 67% | 61% | Wisconsin | 40% | 33% | 39% |
There is close agreement in all of these games.
According to ESPN’s FPI, Washington is still not favored in any of their remaining games. They give UW the best chance against Michigan State game (47.5%) and Penn State (41.5%). The win percentages did improve slightly in all of their remaining games.
Final Notes
UCLA continues to stay unbeaten; they are the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten. UCLA and Ohio State are both unbeaten in conference games. That will likely still be the case after this weekend.
Nebraska has now lost two close games in a row to a couple of the top teams in the Big Ten. They are off this weekend; they play UW in their next game.
Maryland and Michigan State are both on 5-game losing streaks. Maryland is off so they have some time to turn things around before they host Illinois-which barely beat Michigan State. Michigan State faces UCLA, so their losing streak may continue. Penn State is on a 4-game losing streak. They are also off this weekend and host Purdue before heading to
UW has 5 more conference games. They will need to win at least 2 of those games to be bowl eligible. That would seem to be the goal-so that all of the young players on the team can have more practices and another game to show improvement. They may not be favored to win two more games, but with a week to get healthier and some good practice, it is definitely possible.
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