Big Ten schedule makes it clear – Lincoln Riley must go 9-3 in 2026

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Lincoln Riley enters his fifth season as the USC football head coach in 2026. When a coach at USC enters Year 5 without a conference championship or a College Football Playoff appearance, it’s time to demand better. It’s time to apply a Big Ten football hot seat to the coach’s tag. It could be the case that athletic director Jen Cohen will retain Riley for 2027 no matter what. We think that would be a mistake. That point aside, it’s important for administrators, the coaches themselves, and fans to have a mature understanding of what should merit retention, and what should merit a firing, going into a football season. That’s the Riley conversation we will have here:

2026 Big Ten football schedule

The schedule is out, and USC is playing five top Big Ten football teams in 2026: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Washington, and Penn State. This sets the framework for our discussion.

10-2 is the goal, but it might not be achieved

USC really needs to go 10-2 and make the CFP this year. Lincoln Riley therefore faces a tough challenge, given how difficult the Big Ten schedule is. I felt earlier in the offseason that Riley might need to go 10-2 to save his job in 2026. I’m going to step back from that view and say 9-3 is what he absolutely must accomplish. Let’s explain why.

The Big Five

Let’s call the five toughest Big Ten games the “Big Five” for USC and Lincoln Riley in 2026. It will be really hard to win even four of these five games. USC will need to go 3-2 to have a chance to finish 10-2 and make the CFP. Even 3-2 in the five will be tough. That’s why it’s hard to demand that Riley go 10-2 this year. It’s why 9-3 is the more realistic and fair expectation for the Trojans in 2026.

Why 9-3 is acceptable, though not ideal

9-3 and not 10-2 would be tough to stomach, since it would likely mean one more year without the CFP at USC. The Trojans have never made the playoff and really need to get there. Another year with no playoff would hit hard. However, going 9-3 means USC will have won at least two of the Big Five games. That’s not great, but it’s also not terrible and would show the Trojans could then mature into a group in 2027 which could get on top of the conference with more recruits and portal reinforcements. 9-3 offers reason to think Riley can finally figure it all out in 2027.

Why 8-4 is completely unacceptable and should get Riley fired

If USC goes 8-4 in 2026, that means it will have gone no better than 1-4 in the Big Five Big Ten games. USC has been so weak and subpar against ranked teams under Lincoln Riley that a 1-4 record against the top end of the Big Ten would indicate Riley is just not close to the expected USC standard. Jen Cohen would need to fire him if this happens. USC administrators can be fair and reasonable — 9-3 — but they can’t accept mediocrity, which is what 8-4 would be.

We aren’t predicting what Jen Cohen will do

Let’s be very clear so no one gets the wrong idea: We aren’t predicting Jen Cohen will fire Lincoln Riley if he goes 8-4 at USC in 2026. We simply recommend that’s what Cohen should do if it happens.

Now we get to wait seven months for the start of the season. We’ll see where we are in 10 months, at the end of November.

This article originally appeared on Trojans Wire: 2026 Big Ten football schedule shows Lincoln Riley must go 9-3 at USC

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