Big Ten Team Talent Rankings- Part III

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Welcome to the final part in our run through of the Big Ten using my team talent ranking system as a guide. We’re covering the top 6 teams who all have realistic ambitions on a CFP spot even if only 3-4 of them will end up achieving that goal. If you missed part two, you can give it a read right here then come back.

6. Washington Huskies- 2,331 (#8 offense, #5 defense)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.881 (6th)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 863 (10th)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 66.8 (10th)

You can find my full write-up of the Huskies from Monday right here so I won’t go into quite as much detail here.

Washington played a lot of four-star freshmen major snaps in their first college action last year and have gotten rewarded for it in this year’s rankings. They’re hoping the same thing will be true next year after it seems that LT Kodi Greene, DL Derek Colman-Brusa, and ED Ramzak Fruean are all in line for starting roles with CB Jeron Jones likely the next player up at corner. That’s a higher reliance on true freshmen than most teams hoping to be CFP entrants typically have and so there may be a few growing pains early in the year. All of these talented freshmen/sophomores give the Huskies a high ceiling/low floor type roster but you don’t have to squint to see how the Dawgs could be much improved.

Highest Ranked Position Group: Linebacker (2nd)

Lowest Ranked Position Group: Running Back (18th)

Top 5 Players: 1. QB Demond Williams Jr. (94), 2. S Rylon Dillard-Allen (87), 3. CB Dylan Robinson Jr. (83), 4. LB Zaydrius Rainey-Sale (83), 5. LB Buddah Al-Uqdah (83)

5. Indiana Hoosiers- 2,333 (#6 offense, #6 defense)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.860 (8th)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 1,118 (1st)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 71.8 (2nd)

My system was one of the highest on Indiana during Cignetti’s first year by putting him 8th in the Big Ten (still underrated him a lot since they made the CFP). Then last year I didn’t have them anywhere close to 1st despite the Hoosiers going on to an undefeated national title. It’s fair to think at this point though that Cignetti is one of those coaches that will always be able to move his team up at least a couple spots higher than they finish in these rankings.

Indiana made their mark the last two years by focusing on experience and production over recruiting pedigree. Despite losing a ton of talent to the draft/graduation, they’re once again loaded back up by finishing in the top two in both average snaps and career PFF grade among their starters. Nine new projected starters were added through the transfer portal. During Cignetti’s first two seasons, Indiana used the portal mostly to pick off underrated players from lower levels through quality scouting. As the defending national champs now they have a lot more clout and all nine of those new transfers came from other power conference programs including four plucked from fellow B1G rosters.

Cignetti hit a home run bringing in Fernando Mendoza from Cal last year and now they’re turning the keys over to Josh Hoover from TCU. He threw for 3400+ yards with 27+ TDs each of the last two years but also threw double-digit interceptions each season and will need to get the turnovers under control for Indiana to try to go back-to-back. He’ll have a loaded WR group to throw to with Charlie Becker (679 yds, 4 TDs) returning plus Nick Marsh (662 yds, 6 TDs) coming in from Michigan State. And the running backs? Oh yeah, they’ve got three of them who averaged 5+ yards per carry at power conference programs last year. The starting OL is also loaded with four returners (three starters) and the lone incoming transfer had 1500+ snaps as a former high four-star at Wisconsin. The only question mark is the tight end group which has 10 combined career snaps but does include several four-star recruits.

The defense still has a good amount of star power at the top but the depth isn’t as proven as it was the past few seasons. The linebacker spot has a pair of returning starters but no one else who has any experience behind them. It’s a similar story after the first three options on the interior defensive line and at safety. Phil Steele put seven Indiana defenders on one of his 4 preseason all-conference teams led by four 1st teamers (S Amare Ferrell, LB Isaiah Jones, DL Tyrique Tucker, LB Rolijah Hardy). Washington gets Indiana in the 2nd to last week of the year and whether this is still a premium defense by then will depend on whether the Hoosiers have been able to stay healthy or instead get hit by the injury bug and need to rely on unproven freshmen stepping into bigger roles.

Highest Ranked Position Group: Wide Receiver (3rd)

Lowest Ranked Position Group: Running Back (16th)

Top 5 Players: 1. CB AJ Harris (92), 2. S Amare Ferrell (88), 3. ED Josh Burnham (86), 4. WR Nick Marsh (86), 5. QB Josh Hoover (85)

4. USC Trojans- 2,382 (#7 offense, #4 defense)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.889 (4th)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 742 (14th)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 64.0 (16th)

The Trojans have finally started to recruit under Lincoln Riley like they did in the Pete Carroll era and finished with the #1 class in the country for 2026. That’s obviously a good thing for USC long-term but it’s usually not the recipe for a quick flip which might be what is required for Riley to keep his job beyond this season as it is seemingly CFP or bust. That development is borne out in the starters data above where USC is towards the top of the conference in recruiting rating among their top players but in the bottom five in both experience and on-field performance.

Riley returned to his QB whisperer ways last year by turning UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava into one of the most productive passers in the country with 3711 yards and 24 TDs. Maiava’s recruiting pedigree and poor advanced stats while back at UNLV drag him down in my rating system and I think it’s fair to say I’m undervaluing him by quite a bit here and he should be closer to the #3 QB than the #13 QB that he is right now.

The rushing duo of King Miller and Waymond Jordan are back after combining to run for nearly 1,500 yards on better than 6.0 YPC each despite neither being rated higher than a mid 3-star recruit. They’ll be joined by two premium freshmen to help out the depth at that spot. The WR room returns last year’s #3 option Tanook Hines (561 yds) and pairs him with NC State transfer Terrell Anderson (629 yds, 5 TDs) to form a young but imposing duo on the outside joined by several stud freshmen. There are concerns though on the offensive line. Starting center Kilian O’Connor is already out for the year and that means 4/5 of the starting line will have a sub-60 career PFF grade which generally means below average performance. There’s some experience with 4 players at 900+ snaps but they’ll need to improve across the board to get USC to where they want to go.

There’s plenty of raw talent on the defense but it is a little more raw than you’d ideally like. Only two projected members of the 2-deep have 850+ career snaps and only two have career PFF grades of 69+ so they’re light on both experience and proven production. But almost everyone here was highly rated out of high school. A full 17 of the 22 in Phil Steele’s projected 2-deep on defense for USC are either former 4 or 5-star recruits. And one of those exceptions is Washington transfer Deven Bryant who started for the Huskies for much of the year. There’s a chance that USC breaks out, particularly up front, but we’ve said that before so I’m inclined to take a wait and see approach.

Highest Ranked Position Group: Defensive Line (3rd)

Lowest Ranked Position Group: Tight End (14th)

Top 5 Players: 1. WR Tanook Hines (85), 2. WR Terrell Anderson (85), 3. LT Elijah Paige (84), 4. DL Jahkeem Stewart, 5. ED Braylan Shelby (81)

3. Michigan Wolverines- 2,471 (#3 offense, #3 defense)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.895 (3rd)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 693 (5th)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 69.4 (5th)

What a turbulent offseason for Michigan. They end up firing Sherrone Moore due to off-field scandal but I’m sure there were plenty of Michigan fans who weren’t too broken up about the idea of upgrading at head coach. That’s exactly what they did with longtime Utah stalwart Kyle Whittingham taking over a program that fits the Utah ethos but with many more resources.

One of the few certainties among the coaching change was that QB Bryce Underwood would keep his starting job. The former #1 overall recruit was mostly okay last season but his overall numbers were underwhelming given the hype. It’s incredibly rare for a true freshman QB to come in and be above average from the get-go so there’s still reason to think that Underwood can put it together in a new offense with new pieces around him.

Gone is star RB Justice Haynes but Jordan Marshall returns as my #2 rated RB in the conference and he’s joined by true freshman 5-star Savion Hiter who all the buzz out of training camp suggests lives up to the hype. That may be the best RB 1-2 duo in the conference. There are still question marks among the pass catchers except for Andrew Marsh who as phenomenal once he got on the field as a true freshman and should be a clear all-conference contender provided Michigan throws the ball enough for him to get the counting stats. It’s a little more of a rebuild at tight end with no one on the roster who has even 300 career snaps. The offensive line should be quite good with the biggest question mark as LT Andrew Babalola who was a 5-star in the class of 2025 but missed all year due to injury and now should be making his college debut as a starter.

There are high expectations for the defense structured primarily around the secondary. Michigan finished with my #2 cornerback and safety groups thanks to a pair of players in each category in the top 70 overall and 3/4 of them were on one of Phil Steele’s preseason all-conference teams. It’s going to be really hard to throw the ball against this group. Whether the defensive front lives up to recent Michigan standards depends on the health of John Henry Daley. The Utah transfer had 11.5 sacks last year but tore his Achilles in the regular season finale so it may be a stretch to think he’ll be quite the same terror, at least early in the year. There are five members of the front with between 375-775 career snaps and a 60+ PFF grade (led JHD’s stellar 87.7 grade) who provide a strong floor for the group.

Highest Ranked Position Group: Offensive Line, Cornerback, Safety (2nd)

Lowest Ranked Position Group: Tight End, Linebacker (10th)

Top 5 Players: 1. CB Jyaire Hill (95), 2. RB Jordan Marshall (92), 3. WR Andrew Marsh (92), 4. QB Bryce Underwood (90), 5. RT Andrew Sprague (90)

2. Ohio State Buckeyes- 2,648 (#1 offense, #2 defense)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.939 (1st)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 881 (7th)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 71.3 (3rd)

And now we arrive at the behemoths. The top two here are unfortunately in a tier of their own. You can say that they have weaknesses relative to their other positions but there’s no position group that isn’t in the top half of the conference. Ryan Day has assembled a consistent juggernaut and there’s no reason to think that Ohio State isn’t a title contender once again.

It starts with the playmakers on offense for Ohio State as they have my top rated WR and RB and the second rated QB (who is still #3 overall). Jeremiah Smith is a generational talent on the outside and will once again be an All-American if healthy. The list of other players who have started off their college careers in the last decade with consecutive P4 seasons of 500+ snaps and 85+ PFF grades are the following: Caleb Downs, Leonard Moore, Jaydn Ott, Caleb Williams, Brock Bowers, Trevor Lawrence, and DJ Reed. And if you wanted to stack the criteria as close to Smith’s actual stats as possible then the list would shrink down to just Smith, Bowers, T Lawrence, and Reed.

The duo of QB Julian Sayin and RB Bo Jackson weren’t quite at that level in their first seasons of playing time in college but they both have legitimate All-American cases as well with any kind of development. The offensive line has four returners with 1,000+ career snaps and 60+ PFF grades including the guard duo of Montgomery and Siereveld who each have 70+ PFF grades and are likely all-conference players. The only weak spots on the offense at all are potentially left tackle Ian Moore who has just 181 career snaps and Tight End with the top two options a transfer from MAC school Ohio and Nate Roberts (not the former UW basketball player despite eligibility being a fluid concept these days) with 161 career snaps. It’s really difficult to imagine this offense not being phenomenal barring just catastrophic injury luck and/or coaching malpractice.

Last year’s Ohio State defense was a generational group and that’s a ton of talent to replace but OSU is doing their best to try. Five new projected starters came in from the transfer portal across all levels of the defense from Alabama, UCF, Florida State, Duke, and Wisconsin. The rich get richer when they get to just add that many starters with 600+ career snaps from other major programs. Just about every player has a major pedigree with 19/22 players in the projected two-deep who were former 4/5-star recruits and two of the other three were transfers from other P4 programs. It may be a step back from last year’s defense but this group should be a brick wall yet again.

Highest Ranked Position Group: Offensive Line, Edge Rusher (1st)

Lowest Ranked Position Group: Safety (6th)

Top 5 Players: 1. WR Jeremiah Smith (99), 2. QB Julian Sayin (98), 3. RB Bo Jackson (92), 4. LG Luke Montgomery (91), 5. Austin Siereveld (91)

1. Oregon Ducks- 2,663 (#2 offense, #1 defense)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.933 (2nd)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 1,010 (4th)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 71.0 (4th)

Crap. Last year the Ducks were 1b to Ohio State’s 1a but this year it’s flipped. Dan Lanning has been able to beat just about everyone except who eventually made the national title game. If he can’t get it done with this roster then it’s hard to think he’ll ever have a better chance. Oregon did lose both coordinators after last season which will obviously have an impact but it’s going to be really hard for me to poke holes in this roster. I promise I’ll try though.

I was skeptical that Dante Moore would be as good as Oregon suggested after a disastrous freshman year at UCLA but it turns out Chip Kelly was really bad as a head coach there. He’s my system’s #2 rated player in the conference only trailing Jeremiah Smith and will be receiving plenty of Heisman buzz. Last year’s Oregon team had their WR corps thinned out by injuries but this year get back former 5-star Evan Stewart from injury to pair with former 5-star Dakorien Moore entering his sophomore year. Oregon’s propensity for not developing WRs led them to rely on the transfer portal in recent years (such as for Stewart) but the only add in the portal this year was for UAB’s Iverson Hooks who had 927 yards and 7 TDs a season ago.

There’s unfortunately no way for me to pretend the running backs will be anything short of amazing. Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill combined to score 20 TDs on better than 7 YPC as true freshmen last year and are both now back with another two four-star freshmen behind them. Tight end Jamari Johnson came in from Louisville last year as the #2 to Kenyon Sadiq and put up similar numbers despite Sadiq becoming a 1st round draft pick and now Johnson is projected to be drafted in a similar range next spring. If there’s any flaw in the offense it’s on the OL which has been a longtime strength for Oregon. There are only 3 OL in their projected 2-deep with 350+ career snaps and none of them have a career 70+ PFF grade. Most of the group were former top recruits but it’s possible that a misevaluation/injury or two could mean this is the fatal flaw for this team.

The defense should be spectacular this season (grumble, grumble). The entire starting defensive front chose to come back which means the Ducks have my 1st/2nd rated DTs and my 1st/5th rated Edge players. Any team without a quality offensive line is going to stand absolutely no shot at scoring points. Every projected starter for Oregon’s defense has played at least 400 career snaps with a career 66+ PFF grade and a 0.875 composite recruiting ranking. Those would be what I would consider to be at least a very good backup for just about every team in the conference and that’s the minimum across their defense. Insane. They rank top 5 in every position group and either 1st or 2nd everywhere except linebacker.

Only five members of the projected defensive two-deep were incoming transfers so this is much more of a home grown team than we’ve seen so far under Lanning. That has led to Oregon fielding 18 of the top 100 players in the Big Ten this season in my system. Blech. The numbers certainly indicate this team is worthy of the offseason hype (for once). But now they have to go prove it on the field in December/January.

Highest Ranked Position Group: Running Back, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Defensive Line, Cornerback, Safety (1st)

Lowest Ranked Position Group: Offensive Line (7th)

Top 5 Players: 1. QB Dante Moore (98), 2. Matayo Uiagalelei (97), 3. CB Brandon Finney (95), 4. WR Dakorien Moore (93), 5. RB Jordon Davison (92)

*****

And with that, we have FCS football tonight and some FBS games beginning in less than 48 hours.

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