Boca Raton Bowl of Beans What To Watch For: Toledo Rockets

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WHO WILL WE SEE AT RUNNING BACK FOR LOUISVILLE

I don’t have any inside sources, but the folks I’ve talked to who do have made it pretty clear that the three top running backs for the Cards are very unlikely to play in the bowl game. I’m still holding out hope that no one announcing that they’re entering the portal means they may play and even stick around for next season. It’s silly of me, but traveling with the team just to stand on the sidelines is a bit out of the ordinary to me.

I’m expecting to see Braxton Jennings and Shaun Boykins, even if others are available. I think this will have more to do with next season than this game itself. Louisville is in a spot where they have to replenish a lot of bodies on the roster, and getting another strong game out of these two backs will give the staff the confidence to move on from the pricey trio that came back this past season.

While I may not agree with the decision to let a guy like Isaac Brown walk if he chooses to do so, the financial investment needed to retain him could be better used towards improving the offensive line. Duke Watson had a poor season, even when he was healthy this year, so it might be time for a mutual separation. Keyjuan Brown is worth the investment, in my opinion, but his price tag will go up with his performance this year.

This staff watched Devin Mockabee run through Big Ten defenses as a walk-on at Purdue. They have four young running backs lined up to tote the rock for a fraction of the investment of Isaac Brown. I think the Bean Bowl will be a test to see if the new guys can take on the full load next season.

KALIEB OSBORNE COULD PULL A MILLER MOSS

Miller Moss killed the Cards in the Holiday Bowl two years ago after Caleb Williams opted out to prepare for the draft. Moss had played in some mop-up duty during the season and showed some promise in doing so. But Moss was not a player who worried you coming into the game because he didn’t show much when he did play. I think the Cards will be in the same situation this year.

Toledo lost their starting quarterback to injury in their last game, and he is not expected to play. Enter Kalieb Osborne, who led the team from behind to get the win in the second half when he was pushed into the game. Osborne has been good in the limited time he has played, but even with a decent amount of film from their last game, it’s hard to know how he will play and what the offense will look like.

Osborne is a capable runner who runs like he weighs much more than 215 pounds, but he is not a guy who makes you worry about breaking off a big run where he outruns the defense. However, he can run the option, which can put him in open space as a runner, potentially leading to chunk runs. Throw in his big-time arm strength, and Osborne is the exact type of player to surprise the opposition in a bowl game.

JEFF BROHM WILL HAVE TO GET CREATIVE

The Cards dominated UK their last time out, but that performance clouded the fact that UofL doesn’t have a handful of key players on offense. The running backs ran wild while Miller Moss was able to hit a couple of big plays and make efficient plays until the game was out of hand. The Cards will be playing against a defense ranked first in the country in yards per play and second in yards per game. They may play in the MAC, but they have been dominant this year, including against UK outside of one big run.

Jeff Brohm will need to be creative in his calls to get some big plays in this game. Toledo’s coaching staff is pretty much gone, but they still have some very good players who will likely do well executing whatever game plan the interim coaches come up with. Getting out to a lead or just getting big plays would go a long way in this game. I also think that giving the Rockets a chance to gain some confidence against base offensive sets and plays could lead to the Cards’ offensive players getting frustrated.

CAN THE CARDS REPEAT THEIR PERFORMANCE FROM THE UK GAME?

I don’t think anyone on either side of the rivalry saw the beatdown against the Cats coming. UofL had come off a bad outing against SMU, and the injuries on both sides of the ball had gotten worse. But the Cards put together their best performance of the season in all three phases of the game. It’s hard to know what changed, but I have a pretty straightforward theory.

Brohm takes the UK game more seriously than others. He has said as much before his first Governor’s Cup two years ago. He got his guys ready to play, and they gave him a peak performance. Can he get the team up for a game against a Toledo team that underachieved before their coaching staff bolted for new jobs? We’ll have to see, but we’ve seen Brohm’s teams be up-and-down for three years now, and I don’t know that that changes on Tuesday.

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