Boise State vs Oregon Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

Sunday afternoon features two potential College Football Playoff teams, the Oregon Ducks and Boise State Broncos. This year will be the first of a new-look PAC-12 conference and Boise State is the favorite to win the conference. For Oregon, the Ducks look to continue the Big Ten's streak of three-straight National Champions. Oregon enters the season ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll, while Boise State just missed the cutoff collecting the 28th-most votes.

The Oregon Ducks have quite the collection of offensive talent entering 2026. Not only did Dante Moore (3,565 pass yards, 30 TDs, 10 INTs) return rather than enter a weak NFL Draft, wide receiver Evan Stewart (613 yards, 5 TDs) returns after a season-ending injury, plus Dierre Hill Jr. (656 rush yards, 6 TDs) and Jordon Davidson (667 rushing yards, 15 TDs) are back at running back. It's 100-percent in the realm of possibilities for Oregon to lead the country in points per game this season. For the defense, the Ducks ranked 11th in points per game allowed (18.9) and may have gotten even better with arguably the most dominant defensive line, plus the addition of Koi Perich (Minnesota) to boost an elite secondary.

Boise State is a hot commodity in the College Football Playoff community as a hopeful for the final spot. The Broncos would have to win the newly formed PAC-12, but also not get destroyed by Oregon too bad. Despite this being a Week 1 game, Boise State will need to make an impression as this is the only ranked game on the Broncos schedule. Boise State returns quarterback Maddux Madsen (2,334 passing yards, 18 TDs), their nasty running back duo of Dylan Riley (1,125 yards, 10 TDs) and Sire Gaines (811 yards, 8 TDs), plus an experienced offensive line. The defense looks to have improved in a lot of areas and be the best secondary in the conference.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Oregon vs Boise State

• Date: Sunday, September 5, 2026
• Time: 3:30PM Eastern
• Site: Autzen Stadium
• City: Eugene, OR
• TV/Streaming: CBS

Game Odds for Oregon vs Boise State

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Oregon Ducks (-4000), Boise State Broncos (+1600)
• Spread: Oregon -24.5 (-110)
• Total: 51.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Boise State Broncos

Head Coach: Spencer Danielson
2025 Record: 9-5 (6-2)
Offensive Points Per Game: 28.2 (47th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 24.8 (57th)
2025 Strength of Schedule: 69th
2026 Strength of Schedule: 73rd

The Boise State Broncos Offense:

In 2025, Boise State's offense was night and day in wins and losses. In the five losses, Boise State scored seven points four times and 10 points once for 38 total points over five games. In their wins, Boise State averaged 42.2 points per game and scored at least 38 in seven of nine victories. In 2026, Boise State is led by quarterback Maddux Madsen (2,334 passing yards, 18 TDs) and he has a solid offensive line that does have to overcome losing their best two lineman. The Broncos also regain the services of their top two running backs who combined for 1,936 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns.

The Boise State Player to Watch on Offense: RB Dylan Riley

Dylan Riley is back for Boise State as their lead back from a year ago. Riley ran for 1,125 yards on 195 carries (5.8 ypc) and 10 touchdowns. The Moreno Valley, CA native also added 15 receptions for 149 yards (9.9 ypc) and two touchdowns in his first year as a starter. Riley is complimented well by Sire Gaines who added 811 rushing yards on 161 carries (5.0 ypc) and eight touchdowns. The two will be the best running back tandem in the PAC-12.

The Boise State Broncos Defense:

Boise State is one of the most experienced teams in the country and has veterans all over the defense. Jayden Virginia-Morgan turned down going to the NFL and came back to Boise State (56 tackles, 6 sacks), Boen Phelps (66 tackles, 1 INT), Jake Ripp (43 tackles), Jaden Mickey (38 tackles, 5 PD), and Kennesaw State transfer JeRico Washington (51 tackles, 11 PD). The Broncos could have the best defense in the PAC-12 this season.

The Boise State Player to Watch on Defense: LB Max Stege

Reports out of Idaho suggest the German linebacker could have a big year for the Broncos. Max Stege recorded 3.0 sacks in 2024 playing in eight games. During 2025, Stege got more experience with 12 games played but took a step back with a 0.5 sack. The 6-foot-4 269 lbs linebacker could have a breakout year next to Jake Ripp and Boen Phelps, but it would have to come with sacks. All three are upperclassman, so this is an experienced linebacking group just waiting for someone like Stege to burst onto the scene.

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Oregon Ducks

Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2025 Record: 13-2 (8-1)
Offensive Points Per Game: 35.4 (13th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 18.2 (11th)
2025 Strength of Schedule: 6th
2026 Strength of Schedule: 28th

The Oregon Ducks Offense:

Entering 2026, Oregon has another deep running back committee spearheaded by Jordon Davidson (667 rush yards, 15 TDs) and Dierre Hill Jr. (656 rush yards, 5 TDs) plus there's hype around true freshman Tradarian Ball. At wide out, Evan Stewart (613 rec yards, 5 TDs in 2025) returns from a season-long injury in 2025, while Jeremiah McClellan (557 yards, 3 TDs) helps give Dante Moore two reliable star-studded receivers. Oregon could replicate, if not surpass their 35.4 points per game in 2025 (13th) with this group.

Boise State Player to Watch on Offense:

Rather than going to the NFL, Dante Moore returned to Eugene, Oregon for another run at a National Title. Moore threw for 30 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year with a 71.8 completion percentage. The Ducks offense was dynamic and scored 30-plus points in nine out of 12 regular season games and 41 or more six times. Moore threw more three or more touchdowns in six games during 2025 and 250 or more yards in eight. He will have another dangerous committee around him with a lot of key contributors returning.

The Oregon Ducks Defense:

Entering 2026, the Ducks defense has one of the best defensive lines and secondaries in the country. Matayo Uiagalelei (16.5 sacks in '24, '25) and Bear Alexander (50 tackles in 2025) are potential day or day two NFL picks next year, plus Koi Perich (Minnesota) and Brandon Finney are one of the best corner and safety tandems in the country. Nine out of 12 regular season opponents were held under 20 points last season, including four-straight to start 2025. Oregon should crack the top 10 in points per game allowed this season as this defense doesn't have many weaknesses.

Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: DB/KR/PR/WR Koi Perich

Oregon landed one of the most dynamic players in college football this offseason: Koi Perich. The defensive back started the past two seasons for Minnesota and earned All-Big Ten accolades both seasons. Perich recorded 82 tackles last season, one sack, one interception, and one touchdown. In 2024, Perich had 46 tackles, five interceptions, and one forced fumble. He also has career-longs of 60 yards for a punt return and 93 for a kick return — both didn't result in touchdowns, which could change with Oregon this season. Perich also added seven receptions for 89 yards last season, but I wouldn't expect Oregon to use him much offensively.

Boise State and Oregon Team Stats, Betting Trends

• Oregon was 9-6 ATS last season
• Boise State was 8-5-1 ATS last season
• Oregon was 8-7 to the Over last season
• Boise State was 8-6 to the Under last season
• Oregon was 5-3 ATS at home last season and 5-3 to the Over
• Boise State was 2-3-1 ATS on the road last season
• Boise State was 5-1 to the Under on the road last season, ranking tied for sixth-best nationally
• Oregon was 7-5 ATS as a favorite last season
• Boise State was 1-2 ATS as an underdog last season

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans Boise State to go Under their Team Total at Oregon:

"Last year, Boise State was scoring 38-plus points in seven out of nine wins, but in their five losses, the Broncos scored 10 or fewer points in all five. Boise State averaged 7.6 points per game in their losses and have a majority the same supporting cast from a year ago.

I think the most interesting piece of Boise State's losses was they scored all 38 points in the first half and not a single point in the second half of those five games. That will be something to watch at Oregon. The Ducks held 10 teams to 16 or less points last season and four teams to single digits. I will be looking at Boise State to go Under their Team Total or live betting it if Boise State gets a first quarter score."

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