Bold Predictions for the 2026 College Football Season: Mountain West Madness!

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After writing more than 25 articles and giving out more than 50 best bets this off-season, I've come up with my boldest college football predictions for the upcoming season.

See why my college football picks are calling for the Mountain West to sow some chaos in 2026.

Bold predictions for 2026 college football season 

Pick	Odds
Oregon to win the National Championship	+800
Texas A&M to miss playoffs	-185
LSU to miss playoffs	-185
USC Under 8.5 wins	-135
New Mexico to make the playoffs	+2000
UNLV to make the playoffs	+1100

Oregon wins their first National Championship, giving Big Ten fourth straight title

+800 at BetMGM

The Oregon Ducks are 37-0 against teams that didn't make the national title game over the past three years. Oregon has gotten a little better each year under head coach Dan Lanning, and the next step is the National Championship.

The Ducks return 14 starters from last year, led by QB Dante Moore, a Top 5 overall prospect in next year’s NFL Draft. Oregon also has two great RBs in Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill, two great WRs in Evan Stewart and Dakorien Moore, and arguably the best defensive line in college football.

After watching many of the top teams in the country in the spring including Georgia, Indiana, Ohio State, and Notre Dame, I thought Oregon showcased the best combination of talent and depth.

My power ratings project Oregon to be favored in 11 of 12 games this year (exception at Ohio State). I think the Ducks easily make the Playoffs, and once there, finally take home their first National Championship in school history.

Bet to +750.

The SEC only gets three teams in the CFB Playoffs, leaving Texas A&M and LSU out

Each -185 at BetMGM

As of right now, I have eight SEC teams in the Top 16 of my power ratings. However, the only team that is projected to win more than nine games is Georgia. 

While I think a couple of schools like Texas and Alabama could break through and win 10 games, I see a lot of 8-4 and 9-3 type of seasons in the SEC. Historically, that is not going to be good enough to make the CFB playoffs when compared to 10 or 11-win teams in other conferences.

This is a by-product of the SEC going to a nine-game conference schedule this year. For many teams in the conference, that lowers their win total by at least a 0.5 game. Most schools go from playing a non-conference team where they would be a three-TD favorite to a conference game that is a toss-up at best.

How do we take advantage of this bold prediction? Back Texas A&M and LSU to both miss the playoffs.

According to 247 Sports, the LSU Tigers signed the No. 1 transfer portal class this year, led by quarterback Sam Leavitt, who was the top overall transfer player. That transfer class, along with the hype surrounding new head coach Lane Kiffin, has created unrealistic expectations in Baton Rouge.

My power ratings only project LSU to win 7.8 games. Even if the Tigers overachieve that number and win nine games, they would still be an underdog to make the playoffs.

Although the Texas A&M Aggies are coming off one of their most successful seasons in the last 30 years, replicating that success in 2026 will be difficult.

The Aggies had a school-record 10 players drafted, and the position group hit hardest was their offensive line, which saw four players head to the NFL. Add in three more draft picks on the defensive line, and the Aggies won’t be nearly as formidable at the line of scrimmage this year.

That means Texas A&M will have to rely on quarterback Marcel Reed more this year. I have my doubts, as Reed and the Aggies feasted on a weak schedule last year.

Texas A&M will still be underdogs in as many as four games this year (at LSU, at Alabama, at Oklahoma, and home vs. Texas). My power ratings are only calling for 8.3 wins.

Like LSU, even if the Aggies overachieved and won nine games, they would still be an underdog to make the playoffs.

Each bet is good to -200.

USC goes Under 8.5 wins, signaling end of Lincoln Riley era

-135 at BetMGM

I'd play this to -140.

In Lincoln Riley’s first season (2022) the USC Trojans started 11-1 and were one win away from the Pac-12 Championship and a berth in the CFB Playoff. Since then, Riley and the Trojans are just 24-17.

This year the Trojans have to play the three best teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon). Right now, USC is at least a 5.5-point underdog in all three of those games at DraftKings, and I expect them to lose all three.

On top of that, USC has struggled traveling east. Since 2012, they are 2-16 straight-up in the central and eastern time zones. In addition to playing at Indiana, the Trojans play at Rutgers, at Wisconsin, and also at Penn State in the Nittany Lions’ annual “whiteout” game. I think they lose one of those games.

Throw in games vs. Top 20 Washington and a much-improved UCLA team, and I have the Trojans going 8-4 at best. That won’t be good enough for the USC brass and fan base in Year 5 of the Riley era.

Riley was hired to win championships and get USC to the playoffs. He will end his tenure in Los Angeles with zero championships and zero playoff appearances.

While not as bold, I also think this will be the final season for Bill Belichick at North Carolina and Deion Sanders at Colorado. I like both schools to go Under 4.5 wins this year.

The Mountain West Champion will get a Group of 6 playoff bid

New Mexico +2000 at Caesars, UNLV +1100 at FanDuel

Of the Top 7 Group of Six schools with my highest projected win totals, three come from the Mountain West in UNLV, New Mexico, and North Dakota State. 

I think there's a decent chance the winner of the conference makes the playoffs, and the two most likely are New Mexico and UNLV.

New Mexico welcomes back 13 starters. The Lobos sit No. 20 in Bill Connelly’s returning production, the second-highest among all Group of Six conference teams.

With home games looming vs. North Dakota State and UNLV, New Mexico could be favored in as many as 11 games this year (with the exception of Oklahoma).

Meanwhile, UNLV has quietly become one of the better Group of Six programs in the country. The Rebels have won 30 games the last three years, and that includes some big-time victories over non-conference opponents like Vanderbilt, Houston, Kansas, California, and UCLA.

UNLV returns only six starters. However, they do bring back their top player in RB Jai’Den Thomas, who ran for 1,036 yards last year. They also welcome in QB Jackson Arnold, who’s been a starter at Oklahoma and Auburn.

Remember, UNLV head coach Dan Mullen is one of the better QB coaches in college football history. He’s coached Tim Tebow, Dak Prescott, and certainly got the most out of transfer Anthony Colandrea last year (4,108 total yards).

Right now UNLV is favored in early games vs. Memphis, at Hawaii, and vs. California. If they win all three like they're supposed to, the Rebels will be in the AP Top 25 come mid-October.

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