BON Roundtable: Can Texas finally overcome Ohio State?

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It’s hard to learn much from a win that lopsided, but looking back at the win over Texas State, what is one thing you learned about Texas? What’s one question you still have?

Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) — The explosive play is going to be there offensively. We only got a sample of what things are going to look like with Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman lined up outside, and it is going to absolutely be magical to see it play out this year. A question I still have is whether Texas can still assert itself in the run game offensively. Outside of Hollywood Smothers’ big run early, they didn’t consistently run the ball successfully for my liking, but it is hard to get the full picture without the end-zone copy of the tape. 

Jacob Neidg (@jneidig_2)— I knew the offense was loaded. At least on paper. But seeing how many weapons Sarkisian has at his disposal in real time, and the stress they can put on a defense, was still mind-boggling. Ryan Wingo as WR2 is dangerous, especially once the run game gets going consistently. I’m still not sold entirely on the offensive line. I’m curious how this group will improve at firing off the ball but also handling the more exotic looks that Texas will face on Saturday and later in the season.

Wescott Eberts (@SBN_Wescott) — The biggest surprise to me was the amount of separation there was between Hollywood Smothers and Raleek Brown. Throughout the offseason, I considered them 1A and 1B, but against Texas State, Smothers’ football IQ and vision really stood out compared to Brown. Both are going to get a lot of carries this season, but even if the depth chart lists them as co-starters, I see Smothers as the clear lead back for the Longhorns after one game. I still have questions about the type of play that Texas is going to get from the rotation at left guard between Dylan Sikorski and Laurence Seymore. Steve Sarkisian expects that to continue early in the season, but I think the upside in the running game will depend on Sikorski creating separation and being a quality starter earlier than expected.

Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) — Going into the game, I knew that Rasheem Biles was a playmaker, but it was even more than anticipated. If he can be half as disruptive through the next 11 games as he was against UTSA, we’re talking about Texas being in the running for its first Butkus Award winner since the legendary Derrick Johnson in 2004. My biggest question is if Texas has truly solved its problems in that seam between the second and third levels of the defense. A year ago, it seemed like teams were able to get whatever they wanted in the passing game and seven-yarded Texas to death. Texas State’s wide receivers were able to find those same spots against a pretty vanilla defense on Saturday, and it’s not a controversial statement to say that the qualityfor the Buckeyes is a step up from the Bobcats. 

It’s finally time for the game most people have had circled all offseason, as Texas hosts the Ohio State Buckeyes. What is a storyline or curiosity you have heading into Saturday’s matchup?

Daniel— Can Texas limit Jeremiah Smith for a third straight matchup? Texas has executed a great game plan against him in the previous two games, but at the expense of guys like Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate making timely big plays down the field. Both of those guys ended up going first round, so maybe that was just the Buckeye wideout room being insane, but I will be watching how Will Muschamp schemes coverage over to him. 

Jacob— I’m excited to see the chess match between the coaching staffs. Sark vs Patricia part 2 will be fun to watch. How does Sarkisian mix up his formations to create numbers and spacing? How deep into the call sheet do Patricia and Sark go? And more broadly, I’m curious which head coach shows more aggression, whether it be trick plays, going for it on fourth down, or refusing to settle for field goals in opposing territory. Who comes out of the gate throwing haymakers and taking shots? Day and Smart have had Sarkisian’s number in recent years, but Sark has been up to the challenge in many of the high-stakes non-conference games over the previous few seasons. It will be fun to track how each coaching staff handles the game. 

Wescott — Whether Texas can contain Jeremiah Smith for a third straight game. Sarkisian called Smith arguably the best player in college football, which makes it all the more amazing that the Longhorns have only given up seven catches for 46 yards to Smith over 113 snaps and 13 targets. I trust Will Muschamp and the defensive staff to come up with a good plan to limit Smith, but with the maturation of Julian Sayin, it’s hard to imagine that the Longhorns can keep him from making any game-changing plays once again.

Gerald — When the Texas defense is on the field, most eyes will be on the battle between the Ohio State wide receivers and the Texas secondary, but my eyes will be on the trenches. The Longhorns have one of the nation’s top pass rushers in Collin Simmons and start him opposite Lance Jackson, who is a capital-D Dude waiting to break out. Ohio State still has some questions along the offensive line and may be rotating bodies in the trenches — a statement that brings up PTSD for Texas fans after watching Kyle Flood’s unit a year ago. Will Muschamp loves to create unique looks and create confusion along the front, so I want to see how he can take advantage of a line still in flux and make Ohio State’s passing attack operate on an accelerated timeline. 

A year ago, one of the big differentiators was Julian Sayin’s ability to make a couple of big throws, while Arch Manning struggled to hit some routine plays. Has Manning grown enough to close that gap? 

Daniel — I think we will see a much different Manning in this matchup for sure. I think he will be more liberal with using his legs in this matchup, and I don’t think we will see the jitters as much as we did a year ago to open the season. 

Jacob — Without a doubt. The game last year put little responsibility in either quarterback’s abilities, and yet Manning still seemed to struggle. Flash forward to now, and both quarterbacks are light-years ahead of where they stood last season. I think Manning has improved more than Sayin, so the gap has closed, though I’d still give Sayin the edge in certain categories, namely accuracy. Either way, these are two different gunsligners this year, and Arch has the potential to outshine Sayin, something that was far from the case in Columbus.

Wescott — First of all, it’s important to acknowledge that Sayin has grown after operating mainly in game-management mode for last year’s season opener, but Manning looks like a different quarterback now, as evidenced by the massive improvement in his mechanics against Texas State compared to Ohio State. Although Manning is much more accurate now, he does still have room for growth with his processing. 

Gerald — Well, we didn’t see Arch dirt a single crossing route against Texas State, so we are already improved over last year. But in all seriousness, I think that as much as Arch took the blame for his early-season struggles, it’s not a coincidence that his ascendance coincided with Texas finally finding the right combination of offensive linemen. We saw him look good in the mid-range passing game in the first week, which was his biggest growth area from season to season, and the line is better than it was last year, so I think we will see one of the marquee quarterback battles of the season. 

Ohio State’s top two running backs both averaged right around 10 yards per carry on Saturday against Ball State. Texas had a relatively low stuff rate against Texas State, stopping them for no gain or a loss on just seven attempts. Are you concerned about Texas’s ability to hold up on the line? 

Daniel — I don’t have a big enough sample size to be truly worried about just yet. It is hard to take a lot from either team’s week one matchup because they handily blew them out and also kept things pretty vanilla. I feel like we will have a better idea of where things stand after this week about where things stand heading towards conference play. 

Jacob — Yes and no. Two explosive runs, one by each Ohio State back, accounted for 48% of the entire team’s rushing yards. So the magnificent box score was aided by these two huge plays, but in reality, the first half was a real struggle for the Buckeye offensive line. They averaged just 2.1 yards per carry on 17 carries. With that being accounted for, I still don’t feel great about the Texas front seven. The group didn’t perform to a level that spells success against a much more talented offense, even if the Buckeye run game is a little shakier than it might appear.

Wescott — No. The veer and shoot forces defenses into bend-but-don’t-break mode because it attacks where the defense isn’t and ensures a lot of ground to cover for a cornerback to stop a run or for a linebacker to stop a wide receiver screen. Ohio State will be a little bit more conventional, so I think that favors the Texas defensive front.

Gerald — As mentioned, Ohio State still has questions along the offensive line, while the Texas defensive line probably has five dudes that would be starters at a lot of schools around the country. I do think Bo Jackson is the most overlooked/underrated back in the country, and Ryan Day likes to run him with volume; last year, he hit double-digit carries in 11 of 14 games. Ultimately, stopping the run is a numbers game, and Texas has bodies that can occupy multiple defenders, letting playmakers like Rasheem Biles fill the running lanes. 

Fill in the blank: Texas wins on Saturday if _____________.

Daniel — The offense takes care of the football, and the defense is able to get pressure on Sayin. Sayin struggled in the big games last year when teams could properly harass him and get him off his spot in the pocket. If Texas can do that, then they’ve got a chance on Saturday. 

Jacob — They win the turnover battle. I think this game will be a high-scoring affair where extra possessions could really sway the outcome. If the Longhorn defense can force a turnover or two and the offense holds onto the ball, I think the needle moves towards Texas. 

Wescott — I think Jacob is spot on with the turnover battle. It’s the one single stat that decides most games, and there were a lot of positives from the Longhorns in the first game with the playmaking ability of the defense. A related area to watch — which team is able to convert its fourth downs.

Gerald — they can capitalize on red zone opportunities. Last year in a seven-point loss, Texas reached the red zone twice and was turned away both times. Two years ago in the CFP, Texas saw a one-score game balloon into a two-touchdown deficit on a red-zone turnover. Last week, Texas was 6-7, and my theory is one of the biggest reasons Texas coveted Cam Coleman is his ability to make contested catches in the end zone. 

Texas is a 1.5-point favorite according to FanDuel. Will Texas finally overcome Ohio State?

Daniel (1-0/1-0 ATS)— Texas is due to win this matchup, and I feel like this is the best they’ve matched up with Ohio State of the three games we have seen them in recent memory. I think Texas can attack Ohio State’s defense in ways it couldn’t last year, while still putting together a viable defensive game plan to keep the game close. I am going Texas 27, Ohio State 21 

Jacob (1-0/1-0 ATS) — I have a tough time imagining the Buckeye defense can contain the Longhorn offense. The Ohio State front seven is deep but lacks the high-end talent that they’ve featured the last few years. And while the back end is more accomplished, there are too many weapons to keep the Longhorns off the scoreboard for long. I expect the Texas defense to concede a fair bit of points, but ultimately Arch and the offense score enough to emerge victorious. Texas 34, Ohio State 27

Wescott (1-0/1-0 ATS) — This feels like the type of toss-up game that the spread predicts and I’m in prove-it mode with Sarkisian in these games right now because he made some glaringly poor decisions in key moments in both of them. Really hoping to be wrong on this one, but I have the losing streak against the Buckeyes continuing. Ohio State 27, Texas 24.

Gerald (1-0/0-1 ATS) — Ryan Day is on the short list of coaches who you can always bet on and never go broke, and this game gives me a TON of anxiety. But looking at the different units, I think that the difference in the passing game on both sides of the ball is negligible. I give Texas a slight edge in the trenches, and I think Texas has an advantage at running back and stopping the run. So, with a pit in my stomach but all the burnt orange pride in my soul, Texas 31, Ohio State 28.

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