Bowl projections: Where Auburn is forecasted to play ahead of Week 4
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Auburn football dropped its first game of the 2026 season last Saturday when it fell to Florida, 44-39, in the SEC opener. The good news is that the loss to the Gators has not affected Auburn's postseason outlook.
Auburn is on the hunt for its first bowl bid since the 2023 season, and needs just four more wins to get there. As of Thursday, ESPN's Football Power Index gives Auburn a 71% chance to meet that goal, and it is expected to take another step forward this weekend when it faces the Vanderbilt Commodores at Jordan-Hare Stadium. According to ESPN's latest projections, the Tigers have a 75% chance to beat the Commodores and to move to 3-1 on the young season.
Not only does ESPN believe the Tigers will earn postseason eligibility, but so do other outlets, including USA TODAY, The Athletic, and CBS Sports.
Here is a look at Auburn football's latest bowl projections ahead of Week 4's action across college football.
USA TODAY Sports
USA TODAY's Erick Smith has knocked Auburn down a few pegs following the Tigers' loss to Florida last week. Smith projects Auburn to play in the Birmingham Bowl against Memphis. If this projection becomes true, it would be a rematch of the 2015 Birmingham Bowl played at Legion Field.
Memphis, under first-year head coach Charles Huff, is 3-1 with wins over UNLV, Arkansas State, and Tennessee-Martin.
ESPN
ESPN still has the Tigers in its bowl outlook, with one writer agreeing with USA TODAY's Erick Smith's projected destination. ESPN's Mark Schlabach shares Smith's idea that Auburn will play in the Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 29, but against North Carolina. As for Schlabach's partner, Kyle Bonagura, he is sticking with last week's pick of Auburn playing in the Texas Bowl in Houston on Dec. 31, but has changed the projected opponent from Cincinnati to West Virginia.
The Athletic
The Athletic has not updated its bowl projections since pitting Auburn against Illinois in the Music City Bowl in its preseason outlook. However, Auburn's loss to Florida has caused its College Football Playoff stock to plummet. This week, The Athletic predicts Auburn to finish with a 6-6 record and gives the Tigers just a 5% chance to make the CFP.
CBS Sports
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports sticks with his Birmingham Bowl projection for Auburn this week, but has predicted a much more enjoyable matchup.
Last week, Crawford pitted Auburn against North Carolina for the Birmingham Bowl, but he has since dropped North Carolina in favor of Clemson. Despite never being conference rivals, Auburn and Clemson have an extensive history with 51 games played. Clemson has won four straight games in the series dating back to 2011, but Auburn holds a 34-15-1 record over Clemson all time.
Athlon Sports
Athlon Sports has paired Auburn with the Liberty Bowl in every projection so far this season. This week, Athlon has finally changed gears on who Auburn's postseason opponent should be. After picking Kansas State to face Auburn for three straight weeks, Athlon Sports' Steven Lassan has swapped the Wildcats for the Mountaineers of West Virginia. Lassan is the second expert to project an Auburn-West Virginia bowl game, joining ESPN's Kyle Bonagura, who also predicts the matchup, but in the Texas Bowl.
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This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Bowl projections: Where Auburn is forecasted to play ahead of Week 4
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