Breaking down Alabama's College Football Playoff qualifying scenarios | Goodbread
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In the hours before Alabama football’s kickoff against LSU on Saturday, tailgate parties all around Bryant-Denny Stadium had flatscreens humming with 4K sharpness and audio loud enough to catch the attention of a wide radius of passers by.
But most weren’t tuned into Georgia’s blowout of Mississippi State or any other SEC-provincial matchup.
This is November. It’s big-picture time. Indiana’s struggle with Penn State was on display for many, while others took in a tight contest between Oregon and Iowa. The Hoosiers and Ducks, you see, both rank in the top 10 of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, and IU remains unbeaten and ranked No. 2. It’s jockey-for-position season, and Alabama is in the thick of the race.
The Crimson Tide (8-1, 6-0 SEC) has placed itself in a strong position to qualify for the College Football Playoff, but with two SEC games remaining on the regular-season schedule, virtually anything can still happen. The 12-team CFP field is broken into three categories: four teams with a first-round bye, four which host a first-round game, and four which travel for a first-round game. Alabama could still find itself under any of those tents. And in a worst-case scenario — losses to both Oklahoma and Auburn — outside the tents altogether. It’s unlikely an Alabama team on an eight-game win streak could falter that badly, but as Alabama learned a year ago, the CFP selection committee isn’t to be dared with three regular-season losses. Not even, at least for the moment, with its supposed new emphasis on strength of schedule.
Onto brighter, and more likely, scenarios for the Crimson Tide. At 12-1 with an SEC title, UA would be certain to earn a first-round bye. At 11-2, regardless of whether a second loss were to come in the regular season or the SEC title game, Alabama would be much more likely to host a first-round game than travel for one. Then there’s this possibility: Alabama splits its two games with Oklahoma and Auburn, still qualifies for the SEC title game, and catches a third loss in Atlanta. In that scenario, the selection committee would be harder-pressed to penalize UA for reaching, and losing, the SEC title game. This much is certain: UA would have a far better chance of making the playoff as a first-round traveler with a third loss in Atlanta than it would with a third loss at Auburn.
But, getting back to tailgate flatscreen choices, this is all contingent as much on the strength of CFP resumes around the country as it is Alabama’s own. And every loss by an Oregon, an Indiana, or any other program lurking high in the CFP rankings adds a small measure of strength to every weekend winner still in the mix.
It’s not lost on UA coach Kalen DeBoer that this week’s opponent, Oklahoma, was the team that wrecked the Crimson Tide’s goals a year ago. Although he emphasized the importance of his players keeping mental focus on the present, he doesn’t want them forgetting that their 2024 tailspin to the ReliaQuest Bowl was ultimately brought about by a blowout loss to the Sooners.
The outcome of Saturday’s home game against OU won’t clear up the picture entirely, but it will bring it into far better focus.
And so will all the games on the tailgate flatscreens.
Tuscaloosa News columnist Chase Goodbread is also the weekly co-host of Crimson Cover TV on WVUA-23. Reach him at cgoodbread@gannett.com. Follow on X.com @chasegoodbread.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Breaking down Alabama’s College Football Playoff qualifying scenarios
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