Breaking down the Big Ten championship odds, from OSU favorites to USC dark horses

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Make no mistake about it, the Big Ten is the King of College Football. For three straight seasons, the best conference in the sport has produced the College Football Playoff national champion. But unlike when the SEC performed similar feats in decades past, the B1G did not rely on just one or two dominant programs to prop up the rest of the league; no, the Big Ten is chock full of so many leaders and legends that each of the championships was won by different schools.

While we Midwestern (and now West Coast) football lovers have never been ones to hang our hats on the successes of other teams in our conference like our friends south of the Mason-Dixon line routinely do, there is a measure of pride in the fact that, once NIL deals leveled the playing field, taking player payment from the world of shady bagmen and took it legit, the Big Ten has once again flexed its muscles to prove why it is, was, and always will be the true best conference in the sport.

However, one conference dominating an entire sport at large has not made determining the league’s own pecking order any easier. According to the latest preseason odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, Ohio State enters the 2026 season as the favorite to win the Big Ten at +180, followed closely by Oregon at +270 and defending conference and national champion Indiana at +290. That means that if you bet $100 on the Buckeyes to win the B1G Championship and they do, you will profit $180.

After the obvious top three, the bookies see a rather precipitous drop, with USC sitting fourth at +1300, followed by Michigan (+1600) and Penn State (+1900).

So, despite all of the changes that college football continues to throw at us, the general consensus heading into the season is fairly straightforward: There are three teams at the top, and then there is everybody else, and the Buckeyes — as they always should be — sit a cut above the rest.

For obvious reasons, Ohio State being the favorite makes sense. The Buckeyes enter the season ranked No. 1 in both the Coaches and AP Polls, return Heisman Trophy finalist Julian Sayin at quarterback, have the best player in college football in Jeremiah Smith, and appear to have one of their deepest and most experienced offensive lines in years.

There are legitimate questions on defense after losing a ridiculous collection of NFL talent, but even given that level of turnover, with Matt Patricia back for a second season as defensive coordinator, the standard absurd level of recruiting, and an uncharacteristically active portal period, the rebuilding process is starting to look far more like reloading than some might have initially anticipated. And for that reason, oddsmakers aren’t just looking for OSU to succeed in conference.

FanDuel also has Ohio State leading the favorites to win the national championship (+550 to Notre Dame’s +600 and Oregon’s +750), while Sayin and Smith are both firmly in the Heisman Trophy conversation. The sportsbook currently lists Sayin at +1300 and Smith at +1500 to win the award, giving the Buckeyes two of the seven shortest odds in the country. That combination of team expectations and individual star power is a pretty good explanation for why the Buckeyes sit atop the Big Ten market as well.

Of course, back on the Big Ten front, the biggest obstacle standing between Ohio State and its first outright Big Ten championship since 2020 is likely Oregon. The Ducks are only slightly behind the Buckeyes at +270 and return quarterback Dante Moore along with a roster that should once again be one of the most talented in the country. Indiana is right there at +290 as well, and after what Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers did last season, dismissing them because of roster turnover would be foolish. There are legitimate questions about replacing important pieces from a national championship team, but at this point, Cignetti has earned the benefit of the doubt.

The good news is that the Buckeyes will only have to play one of those top teams on the road. Ryan Day will take his squad West to Bloomington on Oct. 17, while the Ducks will fly East for a matchup on Nov. 7. While we will all obviously be locked in on those games, and everything else happening in the presumed upper-echelon of the B1G, I think there are a plethora of interesting questions happening outside of that trio.

A week before Oregon comes to Columbus, the Buckeyes will be on the West Coast themselves to take on the USC Trojans on Halloween. And while I am always cautious to fall into the “USC is back” trap, if I am looking for a conference dark horse, give me the Men of Troy at +1300.

That is still a significant leap from the three favorites, but the Trojans have something that immediately makes them dangerous in Jayden Maiava. USC should be able to score, and if Gary Patterson can provide anything resembling a meaningful defensive improvement, there is a path for Lincoln Riley’s team to make things uncomfortable near the top of the standings. I don’t necessarily expect USC to win the conference, but at 13-to-1, it is easily the most intriguing option outside of the Ohio State-Oregon-Indiana triumvirate.

Michigan at +1600 is obviously worth monitoring under Kyle Whittingham (even if he doesn’t yet understand the importance of The Game), while Penn State at +1900 feels like the ultimate “prove it” proposition following its leadership change and humiliating coaching search. After that, the odds get silly pretty quickly. Washington is +2700, Iowa is at +5000, and everyone else is +10000 or longer. If Wisconsin, Illinois, UCLA, Nebraska, or somebody deeper down the board winds up holding the Big Ten trophy in December, congratulations to whoever is holding a ticket for that bet; it will undoubtedly be a happy holidays for you.

As for Ohio State, the conference-title odds fit with everything else we have seen this offseason: enormous expectations paired with an unusually difficult path. As Gene Ross recently broke down in his look at Ohio State’s projected 9.5-win total, the Buckeyes will face six preseason-ranked opponents, including Oregon, Indiana and Texas, while also traveling to USC and Iowa.

That schedule makes an undefeated season difficult to imagine, but winning the Big Ten does not require perfection. It requires surviving the most consequential games, getting to Indianapolis and beating another elite team once you arrive. The oddsmakers believe Ohio State is more capable of doing that than anyone else in the league, and I see no reason to argue with them.

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