California vs. Hawaii Prediction: Hawaii Bowl Preview
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College football’s bowl slate continues on Christmas Eve with a showdown in Honolulu between California and Hawaii. The Hawaii Bowl is the final pre-Christmas bowl matchup, and there’s plenty of intrigue between the teams and rising star quarterbacks. Also, there’s an interesting bond between the Rainbow Warriors and Golden Bears for Wednesday night’s game. The two head coaches – Timmy Chang at Hawaii and Nick Rolovich at California – are former standout quarterbacks at Hawaii.
Hawaii had its best season under Chang with an 8-4 record in the regular season. The Rainbow Warriors knocked off Stanford in the opener and defeated San Diego State 38-6 to highlight the team’s eight victories. Also, of the team’s four defeats, two came by one score. The other two came against UNLV and Arizona – a combined 19-7 in ‘25.
Up and down is the best way to describe California’s ‘25 season. The Golden Bears started 4-1 but lost four out of their next five games, including a 31-10 defeat to rival Stanford that cost coach Justin Wilcox his job. Rolovich was promoted to interim coach for the finale and guided Cal to a 38-35 upset over SMU. With that victory over the Mustangs, along with an earlier win over Louisville on Nov. 8, the Golden Bears played a significant role in shaping the ACC title race.
California holds a 3-2 series edge over Hawaii. The Golden Bears have lost three out of their last four bowl trips, while the Rainbow Warriors have won three out of their last four postseason treks.
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Hawaii Bowl: California vs. Hawaii Odds, Details
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu, Hawaii
Kickoff: Wednesday, Dec. 24 at 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Hawaii -1.5
Over/Under: 50.5
Announcers: Chris Cotter, Max Browne, Harry Lyles Jr.
California vs. Hawaii: Keys to Victory
Why California Will Win The Hawaii Bowl
Wednesday night’s game is a homecoming for quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The true freshman has been one of the bright spots for the Golden Bears in ‘25, throwing for 3,117 yards and 17 touchdowns and adding three scores on the ground. The Hawaii native has a tough matchup against an improved Rainbow Warriors’ defense, but a full set of bowl practices to work under Rolovich will only help his growth after a standout freshman campaign.
Sagapolutele’s favorite target is all-purpose weapon Jacob De Jesus (99 catches), while Trond Grizzell (47), Jordan King (22), and tight end Mason Mini (35) round out the key playmakers. Hawaii ranks fifth in the Mountain West in pass efficiency defense, but the secondary has been vulnerable to good passing attacks, as San Jose State threw for 458 yards and UNLV connected on 80.8 percent of passes for 253 yards.
Running back Kendrick Raphael (853 yards) averaged only 3.97 yards per touch but had no trouble finding paydirt (12 touchdown rushes). With a close game anticipated, Raphael’s ability to punch the ball into the end zone against a Hawaii defense that ranks fourth in the Mountain West against the run is crucial.
California’s defense also matches up well against Hawaii’s passing attack. The Golden Bears rank fourth in the ACC in pass efficiency defense and only gave up three completions of 40-plus yards. Although the Rainbow Warriors offense has a ton of firepower, if California can take away the big plays and force Chang’s group to work down the field on small chunks, Rolovich can exit Honolulu with a big-time homecoming victory.
Why Hawaii Will Win The Hawaii Bowl
A bowl game in your home stadium is a favorable setup for the Rainbow Warriors. Also, Hawaii won’t be intimidated by a power conference team, as Chang’s squad went 1-1 and defeated Stanford earlier this year in Honolulu.
Similar to California, Hawaii has its own rising star signal-caller. Freshman Micah Alejado connected on 65.9 percent of his passes and led the Mountain West by throwing for 283.2 yards a game. He also paced the conference with six completions of 60-plus yards. Alejado was limited at times during the regular season with a leg injury, so the time off from the end of the year to the bowl should be a massive benefit.
Leading receiver Jackson Harris (49 catches for 963 yards and 12 TDs) opted to transfer, but Alejado still has plenty of weapons on the outside with Pofele Ashlock (62 catches), Brandon White (37), and Nick Cenacle. The Rainbow Warriors won’t run it often (29.2 attempts a game), but Landon Sims (64.8 all-purpose yards a contest) can provide a little pop on the ground and help Alejado as a safety valve on passing downs.
Over the last two years, Hawaii’s defense has made strides under coordinator Dennis Thurman. This unit ranks No. 62 in defensive success rate and is among the top units in the Mountain West at third-down stops and red-zone defense. The Rainbow Warriors thrive at creating havoc (65 tackles for a loss) and rank 53rd nationally in pass efficiency defense. That combo can help Hawaii keep California’s offense in check. The Golden Bears have allowed 31 sacks in ‘25, which should help Thurman’s group generate pressure on Wednesday night.
Hawaii also has a significant edge at kicker, with Groza Award finalist Kansei Matsuzawa connecting on 25 of 26 field goals in ’25.
Two negatives for Hawaii’s defense: Standout linebacker Jamih Oatis won’t play after knee surgery, and the status of cornerback Virdel Edwards II is uncertain after he missed the regular season finale due to injury.
Hawaii Bowl Prediction: Hawaii 34, California 31
If you like talented quarterbacks and two offenses capable of putting up points, then the Hawaii Bowl should be the perfect companion for your Dec. 24 holiday plans. On paper, this is also an even battle. The guess here is Hawaii at home (6-1 this year), plus a couple of Matsuzawa field goals, will be the difference.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 24, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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