Can Josh Heupel extend this Tennessee streak in Music City Bowl? Our prediction

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NASHVILLE – Tennessee football hopes to finish the 2025 season on a high note against Illinois in the Music City Bowl.

The No. 23 Vols (8-4) play the Fighting Illini (8-4) on Dec. 30 (5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Nissan Stadium.

Here is what you need to know about the matchup.

Despite solid seasons, Tennessee and Illinois see Music City Bowl differently

Truth be told, Tennessee is disappointed to be playing in the Music City Bowl.

This is where the Vols played in coach Josh Heupel’s first season in 2021. This season, they squandered opportunities to get into the playoff mix by losing to the best four opponents on their schedule – Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt.

But UT can still salvage an up-and-down season by earning its ninth win for a fourth straight season under Heupel. He would become only the third current SEC coach to win at least nine games each season since 2022, joining Kirby Smart (Georgia) and Kalen DeBoer (Washington, Alabama).

Beating Illinois would also give UT its 39th victory from 2022-25, tying the winningest four-year stretch of the 2000s. The Vols also won 39 games from 2001-04.

Illinois is playing in the Music City Bowl for the first time. Under coach Bret Bielema, the Illini have tied the program record for most wins during a two-year period with 18.

Illinois also won 18 games over two seasons in 1901-02, 1902-03 and 1989-90. A win over Tennessee would give the Illini their winningest back-to-back seasons in program history.

Joey Aguilar in reach of Peyton Manning records

Joey Aguilar enters the game ranked fourth on UT’s single-season list for passing yards (3,444) and sixth in total offense (3,548). He should climb the rankings, perhaps to the top.

Peyton Manning holds both UT records. In 1997, he had 3,789 yards of total offense and 3,819 passing yards. Aguilar needs 242 yards of total offense and 376 passing yards to break both records.

Illinois ranks 80th in pass defense, allowing 226.5 yards per game. And safety Matthew Bailey, the team’s leading tackler, is out due to injury.

This is Aguilar’s 13th game this season. Manning set the UT record in 12 games during his Heisman Trophy runner-up season.

The NCAA didn’t start counting bowl stats toward cumulative season stats until 2002, and it does not retroactively count bowl stats prior to that. That means Manning's records in 1997 included 11 regular-season games and the SEC Championship game. His final outing didn't count, when he passed for 134 yards in a loss to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl.

Opt-outs push young players into spotlight

Some of the best players on both teams have opted out of the game, mostly to prepare for NFL draft workouts. Their inexperienced replacements will be pushed into action.

UT’s Chris Brazzell, the SEC’s leading receiver, opted out. Freshmen Radarious Jackson and Travis Smith will fill his spot.

Colton Hood, an All-SEC cornerback, also opted out. Freshman Tre Poteat will be among the players replacing him.

UT will use rotational players to compensate for losing edge rusher Joshua Josephs and linebacker Arion Carter, who both opted out.

For Illinois, Bailey, All-Big-Ten left tackle J.C. Davis and Big Ten sack leader Gabe Jacas are out.

The most significant replacement could be redshirt Nathan Knapik, who is expected to make his first career start at left tackle. He'll face UT’s pass rush, which ranks sixth nationally averaging three sacks per game.

Tennessee vs. Illinois prediction

Tennessee 42, Illinois 38: Bowls can be unpredictable. But the opt-outs and injured players not playing in this game suggest it'll be a high-scoring shootout. Both teams will have a weakened pass rush and weakened pass coverage, so there's a prime opportunity for Aguilar and Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer to air it out. In 2021, Tennessee lost 48-45 to Purdue in overtime in the Music City Bowl. Don't be surprised if this game plays out in a similar fashion.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee vs Illinois prediction. Can Josh Heupel win 9 games again?

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