CFP bracket predictor: Where the preseason rankings get it wrong

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So the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll and the weekly USA TODAY Sports College Football Playoff Predictor don’t exactly play well together.

The poll is based on who 72 FBS coaches believe are the best teams in college football. It’s about talent, and not necessarily about path to the CFP.

Or the exact opposite of what plays out week after week in the regular season.

Want to see the SEC and Big Ten really get nasty? Watch what happens if a three-loss SEC team gets selected for the CFP over two-loss defending national champion Indiana.

How, you ask? Schedule, the single-greatest factor in a CFP run.

Which is to say, don’t automatically slot teams from the preseason poll into the 12 precious spots of the Playoff Predictor.

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Indiana has its toughest Big Ten schedule in coach Curt Cignetti's three seasons (Ohio State, USC, at Michigan, at Washington), but has a nonconference schedule of Moe, Larry and Curly.

The No. 6 Hoosiers, who have their highest preseason ranking in program history, could lose two of those heavyweight Big Ten games and still miss the CFP with a 10-win season — because of that weak nonconference schedule.

Meanwhile, there’s Ohio State, No. 1 in the poll even though it returns only three starters on defense and has the toughest schedule in the Big Ten. Road games against Texas, Iowa, Indiana and USC, and home games against Oregon and Michigan.

Then there’s Notre Dame, which is No. 5 in the poll, returns 14 starters and has its easiest schedule in years — and is still sideways about not reaching last year’s CFP.

Or No. 10 Mississippi, which returns 10 starters, has new offensive and defensive coordinators, and a schedule that’s a heavier lift than the past two seasons when the Rebels made the CFP in 2025, and should’ve made it in 2024.

Strength of schedule is everything, just like the SEC has trumpeted for years. And now the Big Ten, with three straight national titles in the rearview and a media days platform last month that proclaimed it's the best conference in college football, must adhere to the same schedule narrative.

Like it or not.

All look at the preseason USA TODAY Sports Playoff Predictor:

First-round byes

No. 1 Notre Dame: Irish have three difficult games, two in South Bend in November (Miami, SMU) and an Oct. 17 game at Brigham Young.
No. 2 Georgia (SEC champion): A manageable schedule, even with two difficult road games (Alabama, Ole Miss).
No. 3 Oregon (Big Ten champion): Ducks play four CFP-worthy teams (Boise State, Michigan, Washington at home, Ohio State on the road).
No. 4 Miami (ACC champion): A one-game season (at Notre Dame) is good and bad: win, and Canes could be the No. 1 seed. Lose, and there’s no wiggle room.

First-round games

(12) Boise State at (5) Ohio State: Another first-round mismatch.
(11) SMU at (6) Texas: Hello, Southwest Conference!
(10) Texas A&M at (7) Indiana: Aggies get chance at CFP redemption against the sport’s hottest team.
(9) Oklahoma at (8) Texas Tech (Big 12 champion): The biggest game in the history of Texas Tech football.

Quarterfinals

Cotton: (1) Notre Dame over (8) Texas Tech. The history, the tradition vs. the billions. And CJ Carr is the best player on the field.
Peach: (2) Georgia over (10) Texas A&M. SEC refuses to put Dawgs and Aggies on the same field (once in 15 years of Texas A&M in the SEC), so the CFP makes it happen.
Rose: (3) Oregon over (6) Texas. Quarterbacks Dante Moore and Arch Manning put on a show, and Oregon gets one big defensive stop to win the game.
Fiesta: Miami (4) over (5) Ohio State. Canes figure out how to slow down Ohio State's powerful offense, and pull away in the fourth quarter.

Semifinals

Sugar: Miami over Notre Dame. Irish get a second swing at 2025 revenge (after beating Miami in the regular season), but Canes slow the tempo behind a stout defense and tailback Mark Fletcher to get another shot at winning it all.
Orange: Georgia vs. Oregon. Another big game, another disappointment for Oregon. This time against Ducks coach Dan Lanning's mentor, Kirby Smart.

National Championship Game

Georgia over Miami: Back-to-back losses in the biggest game of the season for Miami, which ― like last season against Indiana ― struggles with another elite defense in this moment. That, and the season-long, next-level play of Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB. Listen to him daily, from 12-2 p.m., on 1010XL-Jacksonville.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP bracket predictor: Where the preseason rankings get it wrong

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