CFP: Final 4 teams ranked by their national championship chances
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On the first day of the New Year, eight teams were cut down to four.
And those four teams are left standing in the College Football Playoff.
The top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers delivered an impressive performance in the Rose Bowl, throttling Alabama to move on to the Peach Bowl. That keeps the Hoosiers in the top spot of our rankings, but how does the rest of the field stack up?
Here are the four teams remaining in the College Football Playoffs, ranked by our staff based on their chances of taking the title.
1. Indiana
The Hoosiers entered the Rose Bowl as the top-ranked team in the nation, coming off a victory in the Big Ten Championship Game, and Fernando Mendoza’s selection as the 91st winner of the Heisman Trophy. But would the layoff see Indiana come out flat against Alabama?
They did.
For one drive.
After going three-and-out to open the game against the Crimson Tide, the Hoosiers rolled on New Year’s Day, moving on to the semifinals with a 38-3 dismantling of Alabama. Mendoza was nearly flawless in the win, completing 14-of-16 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns as the Hoosiers built a 17-0 halftime lead, forced a three-and-out from Alabama to open the second half, and then scored on their first possession of the third quarter to pull ahead 24-0.
Up next? An Oregon team coming off an impressive win of their own against Texas Tech. This is a rematch of a game in Eugene earlier this season that propelled the Hoosiers into the national conversation when Indiana won on the road by a final score of 30-20, thanks to ten points in the final seven minutes of the game.
The Peach Bowl could be just as exciting as that earlier meeting.
But make no mistake, the Hoosiers’ performance on New Year’s Day showed that out of the four teams remaining, they are the team to beat.
2. Miami
Miami knocked off Texas A&M in the opening round of the College Football Playoff in a game that was expected to be close, but went into the books as an upset.
The Hurricanes were not expected to hang with Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl but they did more than that. Miami knocked off a team that spent most of the season in the No. 1 spot, and the second-consecutive upset has the Hurricanes on the cusp of a National Championship Game.
As it was in the win over the Aggies, Miami’s defense led the way. After Carson Beck threw a short touchdown pass to open the scoring and give the Hurricanes a 7-0 lead, Keionte Scott delivered a 72-yard Pick Six of Heisman finalist Julian Sayin to stake Miami to a 14-0 lead. The Hurricanes stifled Sayin and the Ohio State offense in the first half, holding them scoreless and extending a pointless streak to the first half of the Big Ten Championship Game.
While Ohio State got the running game going to open the third quarter, cutting Miami’s lead to 14-7, the Hurricanes responded with a field goal to push their lead back to double digits. When the Buckeyes scored early in the fourth quarter to cut Miami’s lead to three, the Miami defense responded again, forcing a punt from Ohio State on their next possession.
That’s when Beck and the Hurricanes offense sealed the deal.
But this defense is going to be a problem in the Fiesta Bowl, and after back-to-back upset wins, the Hurricanes are starting to believe they more than just belong, but that they can win the whole thing. And after weeks of doubting Miami, we too are starting to believe.
3. Oregon
The football DNA of Oregon has always been predicated on high-powered offense, but it was the other side of the ball that made the difference against Texas Tech. The Ducks unleashed hell in their 23-0 win over the Red Raiders, which saw their defense hold Texas Tech to season lows in almost every statistical area. More importantly it came after head coach Dan Lanning called out his defense to do better, following a game in which Oregon allowed 34 points and over 500 yards to James Madison to open the CFB Playoffs.
The issue is that Oregon has to go through Indiana. The game will be billed as a battle between Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza for who is worthy of being the presumptive No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, but really it comes down to whether or not you think Oregon’s defensive performance in the quarter finals can be replicated.
These teams have played each other before and Indiana came out on top. It’s going to take the performance of the season for Oregon to propel themselves into the natty, but this team comes up big when challenged.
4. Ole Miss
The Rebels won an absolute thriller on Thursday night, knocking off Georgia 39-34 in a Sugar Bowl that capped off New Year’s Day with a bizarre ending.
But after weeks of wondering how Ole Miss would respond to Lane Kiffin’s departure, the Rebels have surged into the semifinals, where they’ll take on a Miami team that has faced their own share of doubters. Questions will linger ahead of the Fiesta Bowl, as additional members of the coaching staff may depart for Baton Rouge ahead of the opening of the transfer period. But a star turn from Trinidad Chambliss against Georgia, and the momentum gained from a comeback win against the Bulldogs, could help propel Ole Miss into the title game.
However, the questions that are lingering around the program — coupled with a matchup against a Miami team that is on an incredible run of their own — could see the Rebels’ story end in the Fiesta Bowl.
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