CFP first-round predictions for SEC, can Oklahoma beat Alabama again? | Adams
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When Georgia beat Tennessee 44-41 in overtime in September, you probably thought you were watching two playoff teams at Neyland Stadium.
The Vols could have won the game in regulation play if not for a missed field goal. But even in an agonizingly close defeat, UT fans could be encouraged by the outcome.
If Josh Heupel's Vols could come that close to winning – and gain 498 yards against a Kirby Smart defense along the way – why shouldn’t their fan base be optimistic about how the season would unfold?
There was just a sliver of difference between the Vols and Bulldogs on that day. But the gap would widen drastically as the season went along.
The Tennessee defense never got any better. It gave up 44 points against Georgia in its first SEC game and 45 to Vanderbilt in its last SEC game.
The Bulldogs kept getting better defensively until by the end of the season, they had a typically tough Georgia defense. Despite giving up 41 points to the Vols, they will enter the playoffs ranked 11th nationally in points allowed per game. Tennessee ranks 91st in the same category.
A porous defense cost the Vols dearly in their four losses. As a result, they were eliminated from the playoff chase and are headed for the Music City Bowl against Illinois.
Thanks to a much-improved defense, Georgia is 12-1, the SEC champion, and the conference’s best bet in the College Football Playoff.
While the Bulldogs earned a first-round bye, four other SEC teams will dive into the playoffs in the first round (Dec. 19-20). Here’s what I expect:
Oklahoma 23, Alabama 20: Much has been made of the Tide amassing significantly more yardage against the Sooners in their regular-season matchup, which Oklahoma won by two points.
Tennessee also outgained Oklahoma but lost 33-27.
You can’t measure the Sooners by yardage. They went 10-2 against a difficult schedule because of their defense, which so often made game-turning plays. Quarterback John Mateer, who can be maddeningly inconsistent, also came through in the clutch. And nobody is more clutch than kicker Tate Sandelle, who has made 23 of 24 field-goal attempts.
That should be enough to go back-to-back against Alabama, whose passing game is headed in the wrong direction. The Crimson Tide's running game, which averages only 116 yards per outing, will be hard-pressed to dent the Oklahoma defense.
Ole Miss 38, Tulane 20: The Rebels were abandoned by their coach but embraced by the CFP selection committee, which seeded them sixth for the playoffs. Coach Lane Kiffin’s much-publicized departure for LSU means former Ole Miss defensive coordinator Pete Golding will make his head-coaching debut.
Unlike Kiffin, coach Jon Sumrall is sticking around for Tulane’s playoff run, even though he already has accepted the Florida job.
Never mind who’s coaching. Ole Miss has the better players, as evidenced by its 45-10 victory over Tulane during the regular season.
Texas A&M 28, Miami 23: Don’t blame the selection committee for keeping Notre Dame out of the playoffs. Blame the Aggies and Hurricanes, both of whom won close early-season games against the Irish.
Former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck will need to be at his best to beat the Aggies. But do you really think a hostile venue and an aggressive opposing defense will bring out the best in Beck?
His track record suggests otherwise.
Record: 110-19 (.853), 76-41 (.649) against the spread.
John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: CFP predictions for SEC, Oklahoma vs Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
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