CFP prediction tool projects Texas Football's playoff chances for every scenario
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The first College Football Playoff Rankings are out and currently, Texas Football is on the outside looking in. In fact, the Longhorns are officially listed as “first team out” by the CFP committee. But with three more UT games left and a possible SEC Championship Game, what are Texas’ odds to get into the CFP in every possible scenario?
Currently, the Longhorns have a 51% chance of making the CFP, according to ESPN’s FPI computers. But as the rest of the season plays out, that percentage will go up or down depending on results.
If Texas wins out, they will be in the playoff. It’s basically a lock. But if the Longhorns lose two more regular season games, Texas’ CFP chances are essentially over. The computer analysis puts UT at less than a 1% chance to make it. UT will likely end up in the Gator Bowl, or something similar.
But if Texas only has one more regular season loss, the Horns chances are about 60% with some variance based on who that loss is to. There is also a slim chance UT makes it to the SEC Championship Game with two conference losses. The result in the title game would also impact Texas’ odds.
We used the new ESPN Playoff Bracket Predictor to run through every possible scenario where Texas has one more regular season loss to see what UT’s CFP odds would be. It turns out Georgia is the most important game to win down the stretch.
Texas Football wins out with SEC Title Game win
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Win | SEC Title Game: Win
CFP Chances: 100%
Analysis: If the Longhorns win all three of their remaining games they will also be in the SEC Championship Game. If Texas also wins the conference title, they are into the playoff for sure since the conference champion gets an automatic bid. In fact, UT is 78% to get a first round bye.
Texas Football wins out with SEC Title Game loss
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Win | SEC Title Game: Loss
CFP Chances: 99%
Analysis: If the Longhorns win all three of their remaining games and are in the SEC Championship Game but lose it, Texas is still a near lock for the CFP. The chances of a bye are low, but UT has a 66% chance to host in the first round.
Texas Football falls to Georgia
Georgia: Loss | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Win
CFP Chances: 60%
Analysis: If the Longhorns lose to the Bulldogs in Athens, but beat Arkansas and Texas A&M (and don’t make the SEC title game), UT’s CFP chances are at 60%. Texas fans will be rooting for help in other games to bring that percentage higher.
The chances are actually higher if Texas doesn’t make the SEC title game than if they do and lose in Atlanta.
Texas Football falls to Georgia with SEC Title Game win
Georgia: Loss | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Win | SEC Title Game: Win
CFP Chances: 100%
Analysis: If the Bulldogs beat Texas there is a slim chance UT will still be in the SEC Championship game. It is VERY small chance and Texas will need a lot help in other games to make it happen.
Texas Football falls to Georgia with SEC Title Game loss
Georgia: Loss | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Win | SEC Title Game: Loss
CFP Chances: 50%
Analysis: If by that slim chance Texas gets into the SEC Championship game, but fall, UT’s CFP chances plummet to 50%. The lowest odds on this list.
Texas Football falls to Arkansas
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Loss | Texas A&M: Win
CFP Chances: 65%
Analysis: If the Longhorns beat powerhouses Georgia and A&M but somehow fall at home to Arkansas, UT’s CFP chances are actually the best of the scenarios where Texas finishes the regular season with one more loss.
Texas Football falls to Arkansas with SEC Title Game win
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Loss | Texas A&M: Win | SEC Title Game: Win
CFP Chances: 100%
Analysis: If Texas losses to the Hogs, the chances of making the SEC title game with two conference losses improve since UT will have damaged Georgia and A&M’s title game hopes.
Texas Football falls to Arkansas with SEC Title Game loss
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Loss | Texas A&M: Win | SEC Title Game: Loss
CFP Chances: 63%
Analysis: In the case where Texas drops the game to the Hogs and also fails to win in the SEC title game, UT’s chances hover around that 60% mark.
Texas Football falls to Texas A&M
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Loss
CFP Chances: 63%
Analysis: If the Longhorns lose to the Aggies to finish the season, UT’s CFP changes will still be in the 60% range.
Texas Football falls to Texas A&M with SEC Title Game win
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Loss | SEC Title Game: Win
CFP Chances: 100%
Analysis: If this unlikely situation happens, Texas will get the SEC’s automatic CFP berth. The SEC title game would also potentially be a rematch with the Aggies. Revenge!
Texas Football falls to Texas A&M with SEC Title Game loss
Georgia: Win | Arkansas: Win | Texas A&M: Loss | SEC Title Game: Loss
CFP Chances: 61%
Analysis: If Texas falls to rival Texas A&M then losses in the SEC title game (possibly losing to the Aggies two games in a row), UT’s CFP chances remain around 60%.
This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: Computer analysis of Texas Football’s CFP odds for every scenario
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