CFP Projections: How Tulane, North Texas Can Make Playoff Bracket

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CFP Projections: How Tulane, North Texas Can Make Playoff Bracket

There are massive College Football Playoff implications on the line in the American Championship Game between Jake Retzlaff and the No. 20 Tulane Green Wave (10-2) and Drew Mestemaker and the No. 24 North Texas Mean Green (11-1) on Friday night. The game kicks off from Yulman Stadium in New Orleans at 8 p.m. ET on ABC.

By the end of the game, we will be one step closer to finalizing the 12-team playoff bracket, which will be officially announced on Sunday at noon on ESPN. Here are some things to keep in mind about how Tulane and North Texas can make it to the 2025 College Football Playoff.

Tulane Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall looks on.© Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Does the Winner of the American Get an Automatic Bid to the College Football Playoff?

Technically, the winner of Tulane vs. North Texas is not guaranteed an automatic bid to the College Football Playoff. There are five automatic bids awarded to the five highest-ranked conference champions, regardless of conference. Unlike last year, those automatic bids do not also guarantee a first-round bye.

Based on the current rankings, the winner of the American can expect to see its name in the 12-team bracket on Sunday. Every team participating in the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 Championship Games is ranked higher than both Tulane (No. 20) and North Texas (No. 24), so the winners of those three should get the first three auto bids.

If the No. 17 Virginia Cavaliers beat the unranked Duke Blue Devils to win the ACC, they would also rank ahead, leaving one bid available for the winner of Tulane and North Texas.

There is only one other team playing for a championship this weekend ranked in the top 25 of the CFP rankings, the No. 25 James Madison Dukes.

Even if JMU beats the unranked Troy Trojans, it would probably not be enough for the CFP selection committee to move them above higher-ranked Tulane or North Texas, who would have another ranked win on their resumes.

The loser between the Green Wave and the Mean Green on Friday is virtually certain to miss the College Football Playoff. Once the five auto bids have been confirmed, the rest of the bracket consists of the seven highest-ranked at large teams.

Projected CFP Bracket: Possible Playoff Matchups for Tulane, North Texas

Assuming the winner of Tulane vs. North Texas will make the playoff, their potential opponents will be determined by the final rankings and which team wins the ACC Championship Game. A higher seed would result in an easier first-round matchup but a more difficult semifinal, producing two interesting paths.

Scenario 1: Virginia wins ACC, Tulane/North Texas gets in as lowest-ranked conference champion

  • Tulane/North Texas earns No. 12 seed in CFP bracket
  • First round opponent: No. 5 seed (currently the Oregon Ducks)
  • Semifinal opponent: No. 4 seed (currently the Texas Tech Red Raiders)

Scenario 2: Duke wins ACC, Tulane/North Texas ranked higher than Duke and other conference champions

  • Tulane/North Texas earns No. 11 seed in CFP bracket
  • First round opponent: No. 6 seed (currently the Ole Miss Rebels)
  • Semifinal opponent: No. 3 seed (currently the Georgia Bulldogs)

As you can see, there is a lot on the line this weekend. It all starts on Friday night with what is unofficially a College Football Playoff play-in game between Tulane and North Texas.

Related: College Football Playoff Facing Major Decision After Second Rankings Reveal

This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 6, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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