CFP rankings projection: Time to find out if Texas A&M is contender or pretender

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There’s something wrong with a process that doesn’t truly analyze a team until that team’s weakest moment.

For nearly a month now, the College Football Playoff selection committee has been rubber-stamping Texas A&M. Even after the debacle of a win last week against South Carolina.

Why, you ask? Because the Aggies are unbeaten. That’s it. 

Apparently, the poll begins with the unbeaten, and then one-loss teams, and two-loss teams and, you get the idea. 

But the nuances of analyzing records, and how teams earned those records, is the essence of the committee. Push through the surface, dive deep into the weeds. 

If Texas A&M loses Friday at Texas, only then will the Aggies’ resume be seen with a critical eye. Only then will the committee begin to analyze the unspeakable: There are seven SEC teams below the Aggies in the CFP Top 25. 

Texas A&M hasn’t played one.

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In the world of you’ve got to be kidding me, it’s almost as ridiculous as Oregon coach Dan Lanning proclaiming, “We don’t play Chattanooga State” after the Ducks beat USC. 

Oregon played its second game against a current CFP Top 25 team Saturday, and survived at home against average USC. The first game: a de-pantsing from Indiana in Eugene. 

But there are the Ducks, ranked No. 7 by the CFP. Why, you ask?

Because they have one loss, that’s why. 

A look at what the CFP poll should be, and what it will be, heading into the fourth poll of the season.      

What the new CFP rankings should be

1. Ohio State: There hasn’t been a hint of hesitation since the season opening win over Texas. That all ends this week. Next: at Michigan. 

2. Indiana: Is it fair to say IU has lost its edge from October? We won’t know until the Big Ten championship game. Next: at Purdue.

3. Georgia: If Texas beats Texas A&M, the committee will suddenly see the value of Georgia, which destroyed Texas. See: prisoner of the moment. Next: vs. Georgia Tech (Atlanta). 

4. Texas Tech:Red Raiders are two wins from earning a first-round bye. There’s no avoiding this dangerous team now. Next: at West Virginia. 

5. Texas A&M: Aggies can eliminate some schedule doubt with a dominating win in the regular season finale. Anything else leaves questions. Next: at Texas.

6. Ole Miss: Maybe we’re looking at this the wrong way. Maybe Ole Miss finishes 11-1, and Lane Kiffin doesn’t go anywhere. Next: at Mississippi State.

7. Oklahoma: That was a Sooners team playing not to lose against Missouri. The goal is to be peaking by December. Next: LSU. 

8. Oregon: Talk about Chattanooga State, take your team’s eye off the goal — with a motivated, bitter rival waiting for payback. Next: at Washington. 

9. Alabama: Speaking off Chattanooga State, sure hope Eastern Illinois helped focus the Tide for a game that could, you know, eliminate CFP hopes. Next: at Auburn.

10. Miami: This is QB Carson Beck’s team. When he plays well, they win. If he struggles this week, they’ll lose and end the Miami-Notre Dame argument. Next: at Pitt.

11. Notre Dame: Irish using the ol’ “score as much as you can against overmatched opponents” plan to hang on in the CFP. Next: at Stanford. 

12. BYU: The path is clear: win out, earn an automatic CFP bid. Next: UCF. 

How the CFP selection committee will vote

  1. Ohio State
  2. Indiana 
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Georgia
  5. Texas Tech
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Oregon
  8. Oklahoma
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Alabama
  11. BYU
  12. Miami

Five automatic qualifiers

Ohio State (Big Ten), Texas A&M (SEC), Texas Tech (Big 12), Virginia (ACC), Tulane (American).

First round byes

Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia

First round games

(12) Tulane at (5) Texas Tech

(11) Virginia at (6) Oregon 

(10) Alabama at (7) Ole Miss

(9) Notre Dame at (8) Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

Notre Dame-Oklahoma winner vs. Ohio State (1), Rose Bowl

Alabama-Ole Miss winner vs. Indiana (2), Cotton Bowl

Virginia-Oregon winner vs. (3) Texas A&M), Sugar Bowl

Tulane-Texas Tech winner vs. (4) Georgia, Orange Bowl

When are new CFP rankings released?

Tuesday, Nov. 25, at 7 p.m. on ESPN.  

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP rankings prediction: Texas A&M gets first test vs Texas this week

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