Checking in on the Big Ten’s Flex Protect XVIII scheduling model

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For whatever reason, I have always been fascinated with the administrative side of college athletics. No, not NIL budgeting and HR policies, but things like the Big Ten’s television contracts (evergreen FYI: FOX does not get first dibs at picking the Big Noon Saturday game every week).

Another exciting (read: nerdy) element of college football logistics is how conference schedules are determined. In a 14-team Big Ten, the math worked out pretty well thanks to divisions. From 2016-21, the Wolverines would play every team from the West division home and away, with the exception of Wisconsin, their chosen annual crossover opponent for this six-year cycle. Of course, Covid slightly messed things up.

Nevertheless, the conference began a new six-year cycle in 2022, with Nebraska becoming Michigan’s new Big Ten West frenemy. This rotation lasted a grand total of two seasons, as the conference decided it was once again time to expand. So how does one design a schedule with 18 teams?

Enter: the Flex Protect XVIII model.

The what?

With the addition of the Pac-12 four, the Big Ten decided to scrap divisions, as each team would have long stretches without playing some of the other schools, even with nine conference games. After finalizing a list of 12 protected rivalries (of which Michigan participates in two), the Flex Protect model was born, with the guiding principle to have every team play every other school at least once at home and at once away every five years.

TLDR: the numbers are not quite perfect. The Wolverines obviously get their two rivals every season, but that is the end of the nice neat symmetry. The rest of the conference will see Michigan either twice (10 teams) or three times (five teams) between 2024-28. With two years complete under this new model, it felt like a good time to assess how things are going!

Twice, mostly nice

Ten Big Ten opponents fall into the “standard” option for Michigan during the initial Flex Protect run. Of this bunch, the Wolverines have already seen six of them, beating Minnesota in 2024, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Maryland last season, and falling to Illinois two years ago for a 5-1 record in these games. Only the Gophers come back on the schedule this season.

Meanwhile, four teams remain that Michigan has not seen since this new schedule model was introduced, including Rutgers (mercifully) and Penn State (which feels really weird). Also on the docket this fall are the Hawkeyes, who faced the maize and blue three years in a row thanks to the Big Ten Championship Game, as well as UCLA, the only new member the Wolverines have not yet played. All four of these teams are on the schedule in both 2026 and 2027 — lazy model!

Triple Threat

The other five teams will all be faced three times between 2024 and 2028. Michigan got three of them home-and-away to start off the iteration, holding serve against USC (2024) and Washington (2025) in Ann Arbor and falling to both on the West Coast. However, the Wolverines took down Northwestern at the Big House in 2024 and at Wrigley Field in 2025.

Finally, we get to arguably the two toughest non-rivals on the list. Michigan lost to both Oregon and Indiana in 2024, and since then each has earned the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. The Wolverines host the reigning national champions this fall and will travel to Eugene shortly after that, with reverse locations scheduled again for 2027. Fun!

It shocked no one to see the Big Ten try to load up Michigan’s triple-plays with enticing matchups; Washington, Oregon, and USC are the flashy new brands that were always going to generate a ton of intrigue. Perhaps Northwestern and Indiana were then offered as a reprieve, but clearly things look a little different now than they did regarding the Hoosiers just a couple offseasons ago.

Long story short, if it feels like the Wolverines have a tougher-than-average schedule: they do! Even the most balanced models will not be completely level, and that is how life works for brands like Michigan. Love it or hate it, at least you now have some clarity on how the schedule came to be.

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