Cincinnati vs Arizona Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, Oct. 3

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The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Arizona Wildcats in Tucson, Arizona, on Saturday, Oct. 3. Kickoff is set for 11 p.m. ET on FOX.

Arizona is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Cincinnati, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +210 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.

Here’s my Cincinnati vs. Arizona prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 3.

My Arizona vs. Cincinnati best bet is on the Bearcats to cover the spread as home underdogs. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more college football picks and analysis down the Action Network app today.

Cincinnati vs Arizona Odds

• Cincinnati vs Arizona Spread: Arizona -7.5 (-124), Cincinnati +7.5 (+102)
• Cincinnati vs Arizona Over/Under: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)
• Cincinnati vs Arizona Moneyline: Cincinnati +210, Arizona -260

Trailing by a touchdown at halftime in Week 4, Cincinnati leaned into the ground game to knock off Kansas State in Big 12 play.

The Bearcats have a strong rushing attack on 62% of snaps, using a heavy amount of outside zone, with running back Gi’Bran Payne and quarterback JC French IV.

All statistical indicators point to an effective ground game with a top-30 rank in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Led by Payne’s 4.4 yards after first contact, the Cincinnati ground game ranks top-10 nationally in Rush EPA.

The biggest headache for head coach Scott Satterfield is the defense, ranking in the bottom 10 in creating a pass rush and Rushing Success Rate allowed. Cincinnati has been hammered by opponents using any personnel associated with inside zone.

The defensive line has not owned the line of scrimmage in any game, and opponents in scoring position have generated plenty of touchdowns.

Oddly enough, the Bearcats are one of the better tackling teams at the second level and have a top-30 rank in preventing explosive rushes .

Cornerback Antwan Peek Jr., along with linebackers Jonathan Thompson and Simeon Coleman, lead in tackles and have a combined number of “stops” at 30.

Cincinnati wasn’t the only team needing a second-half comeback in Week 4, as Arizona trailed Washington State entering halftime.

The Wildcats outscored the Cougars, 20-7, in the second half, as its strong passing down Success Rate led to 8.5 yards per play on the game.

Fifth-year senior Noah Fifita is having his most elite season as a passer, now at 10 big-time throws to two turnover-worthy plays .

The quarterback has his best set of receivers in his career regarding drops, as only four have hit the carpet this season. Tre Spivey has the most targets on the team, collecting a season-high 10 against the Cougars in Week 4.

The nickel defense has been light on pass rush, with the highest level of personnel being a 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 with minimal blitz.

Arizona has much more success defending the run than the pass while generating top-35 ranks in opponent Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.

There’s a severe drop-off in efficiency in terms of opponent run concepts, as the Wildcats drop 12% in Success Rate from defending inside zone to outside zone .

The biggest pain point for head coach Brent Brennan is the explosives in passing downs. Arizona ranks 117th in passing down EPA allowed.

There’s reason to believe points will be scored in this game, as both teams rank top-30 in third-down conversions against defenses that are outside the top 75 in third-down conversions allowed.

Cincinnati’s ability to create rush EPA through outside zone has created clean passing windows for French. The Bearcats have the advantage in ground attack, as Arizona falls to mid-FBS ranks in defending outside zone.

French should have a field day against the Wildcats’ preferred coverage, as the former Georgia Southern quarterback has a high 68% Success Rate with a big-play rate of 28% against Cover 1 .

Fifita will have a similar advantage with the passing game, dominating Cincinnati’s preferred Cover 3 at a 61% clip.

The bigger issue for Fifita is the low rate of receptions in 50-50 balls, as the Wildcats have caught only four balls on 12 contested throws this season.

Rush explosives are the main weapon against the Cincinnati defense this year, but Arizona running back Kedrick Reescano hasn’t been explosive . The junior has created just one explosive run in 39 attempts this season, averaging a low three yards after first contact.

Action Network’s Betting Power Ratings call for Arizona to be favored by four points, giving the edge in the market to Cincinnati catching a touchdown.

The total projects at 57, so a case could be made for taking an over on a juiced 55, the biggest key number when wagering on totals.

Pick: Cincinnati +7

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