College Football Best Bets for Round 1 College Football Playoff Games
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The second, and possibly final, iteration of the 12-team College Football Playoff kicks off Friday and continues Saturday with a triple header.
The dust has settled since a controversial Selection Sunday, which saw Miami jump Notre Dame and Sun Belt champion James Madison get the nod over ACC winner Duke. The two weeks since then has given us time to break down the bracket ahead of the first round, which includes the following four matchups:
- No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma (Friday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN)
- No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M (Saturday, 12 p.m. ET on ABC, ESPN)
- No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV)
- No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT, truTV)
No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech all earned byes to the quarterfinals. Notably, this is a break from the 2024 format, which would have awarded byes to the Hoosiers, Bulldogs, Red Raiders and Green Wave as the four highest-ranked conference champions.
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The oddsmakers anticipate two blowouts and two tight games. Unsurprisingly, Oregon is the heaviest favorite of the first round, giving three touchdowns to James Madison. Ole Miss is also favored by more than two touchdowns over Tulane in a rematch from the regular season.
Texas A&M is favored by a little more than a field goal against visiting Miami. And interestingly, the line in Alabama-Oklahoma has flipped. The Crimson Tide, who lost to the Sooners this season and in 2024, opened as a slim favorite. But ‘Bama is now a rare underdog in its trip to Norman, Oklahoma.
Athlon Sports’ writers picked all four first-round playoff games against the spread, and they each shared a best bet below.
College Football Predictions: ATS Bets for College Football Playoff Round 1 Games
| Steven Lassan | Thomas Neumann | Kyle Wood | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
No. 9 Alabama | @ No. 8 Oklahoma -1.5 | Oklahoma | Alabama | Alabama |
No. 10 Miami | @ No. 7 Texas A&M -3.5 | Miami | Miami | Miami |
No. 11 Tulane | @ No. 6 Ole Miss -17.5 | Tulane | Tulane | Ole Miss |
No. 12 James Madison | @ No. 5 Oregon -20.5 | Oregon | Oregon | Oregon |
Record: | 119-135-1 | 119-135-1 | 122-132-1 |
College Football Playoff First-Round Best Bets
Steven Lassan: No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon — Oregon -21
A three-touchdown spread is a lot to cover, but Oregon is tough to beat at home, and coach Dan Lanning’s team could get reinforcements back in the passing game with a couple of receivers returning from injury. James Madison’s rushing attack and defense will create some trouble for the Ducks early in the first half. But Oregon settles in and pulls away in the final 30 minutes cover the 21 points.
Thomas Neumann: No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon — Over 47.5
Both of these teams rank among the top 10 nationally in points per game — Oregon at 38.2 and James Madison at 37.3. We think a garbage-time score or two will push this game into the 50s.
Kyle Wood: No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss — Ole Miss -17.5
This is one of two regular-season rematches in the first round. And unlike Alabama-Oklahoma, Part I wasn’t particularly close. The Rebels waxed the Green Wave, 45-10, in Oxford back in September. Yes, coach Lane Kiffin has since left for LSU, but Ole Miss will be eager to prove its mettle in the biggest game Vaught-Hemingway Stadium has ever hosted.
Related: College Football Playoff: Predictions for the 12-Team Field in 2025-26
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Related: Way-Too-Early Heisman Trophy Contenders for the 2026 College Football Season
This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Dec 19, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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