College football betting, odds, predictions: 3 early Week 13 bets to make right now

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By this point in the college football season, market perception often lags behind reality — teams with inflated reputations or misleading box scores create real value for bettors willing to dig deeper. As injuries pile up and depth gets tested, knowing which programs are trending up (and which are quietly unraveling) becomes the edge.

Here are a few early lines that stand out before the rest of the market catches up.

(Odds courtesy of BetMGM and subject to change.)

Duke (-6.5, 51.5) at North Carolina

North Carolina has been a great example of how recency bias whips public perception around. 

The Tar Heels opened 2-5, and it felt like the beginning of the end for Bill Belichick, as rumors swirled about the school already looking for his replacement. Then they beat Syracuse, who started a walk-on at quarterback, and followed it up with a win over a Stanford team projected to win only two games all season. Suddenly, the “maybe Belichick has something here” chatter returned. Then they went to Wake Forest and got smacked by 16.

While opinions on UNC have swung wildly, we’ve stayed consistent: This team just isn’t talented. Now the Tar Heels face a Duke squad coming off back-to-back losses that crushed its postseason hopes, creating a buy-low opportunity as market sentiment turns against the Blue Devils. The only concern is where their heads are after two gut-punch defeats, but in a rivalry spot, on the road, we expect them to be locked in.

Bet: Duke -6.5 (-115)

Nebraska at Penn State (-9.5, 44.5)

Penn State and Nebraska are two programs the public was quick to bury. Penn State lost outright in consecutive games as three-touchdown-plus favorites and then lost its star quarterback Drew Allar for the season. Naturally, the Nittany Lions' reputation bottomed out. But beating Michigan State, hanging with Indiana and barely losing to Iowa have sparked new hope. Is it warranted? Hard to say. The offense hasn’t been impressive, topping 300 yards only once since the QB change.

Nebraska’s defense hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations, but the talent is there. And I’m always a fan of buying teams a few weeks after a backup QB settles in. We’ve seen that with Penn State to a degree, and now it’s Nebraska’s turn to deliver a surprising offensive performance.

Bet: Nebraska +9.5

UMass at Ohio (-32.5, 51.5)

UMass has been one of the worst teams in college football this season, and last week’s 45-3 loss to Northern Illinois doesn’t inspire confidence heading into a matchup with an Ohio team capable of scoring in bunches. But how high is too high?

Back in September, Ohio was a 32-point favorite against Gardner-Webb — and didn’t cover. Gardner-Webb is now 7-4 with a 30-point loss to UT Martin on its schedule. So while UMass has been dreadful (and I won’t waste time pretending otherwise), this number still feels inflated.

Bet: UMass +32.5

  • Arizona State -11.5 vs. West Virginia (loss): The Sun Devils escaped 25-23, but the narrow win spoiled the -11.5 cover as they blew a 12-point fourth-quarter lead before kicking a late field goal to survive. West Virginia’s explosive TDs kept them within striking distance all game, turning what looked like a comfortable ASU win into a brutal betting loss.

  • Wisconsin 1H team total over 0.5 (win) or full-game over 44.5 (loss): Wisconsin cashed the 1H team total with a 45-yard TD strike to Lance Mason, but the offense collapsed after halftime, killing any chance at the over as the Badgers managed just 23 second-half yards in a 31-7 loss. Indiana’s explosive surge after the break turned a once tight matchup into a comfortable win.

  • North Texas -17.5 at UAB (win): North Texas cruised to an easy cover, as Caleb Hawkins exploded for a program-record five rushing TDs in a 53-24 blowout win over UAB. The Mean Green’s high-powered offense racked up 506 yards and never looked back.

  • Liberty at FIU under 51.5 (loss): The under never really had a chance with 38 total points scored by halftime. Liberty kicked two field goals in the final minutes to force OT before FIU sealed a 34-27 win with a TD and INT in the extra period.

  • Kansas State at Oklahoma State under 51 (win): Kansas State’s defense carried the day, forcing five turnovers and holding Oklahoma State without a second-half point in a 14-6 rock fight that never threatened the total.

  • San Jose State at Nevada under 49.5 (loss): This under was dead almost immediately, as Nevada erupted for 31 first-half points and never let up in a 55-10 demolition of San Jose State. With scores coming from the offense, defense and special teams, this one blew past the 49.5 total with ease.

Record: 3-4 (2-2 early week bets)

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