College football betting, picks, odds: Early best bets for Week 12's biggest games, including Texas-Georgia
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Let’s not bury the lede: A 4-0 sweep in last week’s big games finally saw the full results from the line value we’ve repeatedly culled from getting a head start, as we look at the lines for the headliner matchups early in the week. That doesn’t even include beating the line by over 30 points in Indiana-Penn State, from grabbing the Hoosiers at +16.5 back in our “Game of the Year” lookahead-line betting from back in the summer. Unafraid of success, we’re back with a “Saturday 7” of big games — appropriate for the peak time for college football.
With three weeks to go in the regular season, each contest can become a big game since many conferences are such a debacle when it comes to trying to figure out who the championship contenders are. Just ask any of the teams whose road to a conference title game seemed paved, until the point where they tripped on a crack on the sidewalk.
Each week, we look back at the Saturday that was in college football, as inevitably somebody made a move, while others were shook up, letting opportunity slip through their fingers, or in the case of Omar Cooper Jr., keeping their place in the rankings hierarchy by the tip of their toes.
Movers
Speaking of closing line value and winning bets, Tulane moved from +6.5 to +3 by last Friday night’s kickoff in Memphis. The Green Wave beat the Tigers, not only forcibly removing Memphis from its precarious place as the projected Group of Five representative in the College Football Playoff, but tossing their teal hats in the ring for that honor.
Texas Tech profiles as a CFP-caliber team, but given the traffic at the top of the Big 12 standings, a second loss — suffered at the hands of BYU last week — might have really thrown a wrench into that plan. Instead, the Red Raiders dominated the Cougars, covering a point spread that crept up consistently throughout the week, and should now cruise to the Big 12 Championship Game, where they’ll be favored regardless of the opponent.
If, totally spent from a Saturday of watching college football, you didn’t quite consciously make it to the late San Diego State-Hawai’i game, you missed an upset in the Mountain West. At first blush, the Rainbow Warriors’ win seemed like more of a shakeup to the Aztecs’ chances, but further research indicates Hawai’i is 5-2 in-conference, with a pair of comfortable matchups to go: at UNLV, and home to Wyoming.
Shakers
The Hoosiers’ close call in State College was followed quickly by Oregon and Vanderbilt escaping almost certain playoff-hope-crushing defeats, at Iowa and versus Auburn, respectively. Otherwise, Tuesday night’s made-for-TV CFP rankings reveal would have quite the shakeup.
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As for actual upsets, what are we supposed to do with the ACC? California beat Louisville as 18.5-point underdogs, giving the Cardinals a second league loss. The Cards’ first ACC ‘L’ came against Virginia, who had made it this far without a conference defeat, only to see QB Chandler Morris get hurt as the Cavaliers fell to Wake Forest. Were the Hoos looking ahead to this week’s pivotal matchup with Duke? Maybe, and the Blue Devils almost definitely were, as they dropped an oddly-timed non-conference game at UConn.
To figuratively sum up the ACC: Georgia Tech lost its most recent game, didn’t even play this past weekend, and are now the lone favorites atop the conference oddsboard.
Betting the big games for Week 12
No. 10 Notre Dame (-11.5, 55.5) at No. 24 Pittsburgh
We’ve seen repeatedly this season where a team has taken a timeout from the middle of its conference schedule, and has struggled to compete at a level it had grown accustomed to in a random non-conference game.
While a visit from Notre Dame (and ESPN’s College Gameday) should get your attention, Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi has openly admitted that the automatic bid the ACC title provides is more important than an upset of the Fightin’ Irish. That’s concerning for those looking to back the underdog against a team that knows it doesn't have any room for error. Notre Dame has repeatedly efforted an extra touchdown late, just to ensure that committee members are willing to look past its 0-2 start.
Pittsburgh’s five-game winning streak, since turning the offense over to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, has come with an increase in its rating, but while my numbers make this line shorter than the 17 points it might have been before the season, I still have it projected it at Notre Dame -12 — so there’s no great value in backing the underdog, especially when the Panthers may not be fully invested.
Pick: Notre Dame -11.5
South Florida (-10.5, 64.5) at Navy
South Florida may be on a mission of its own after losing to Memphis, but a significant rating bump after last week’s evisceration of UTSA might be a bit much. The Bulls were up 14-0 before the offense even touched the field because of a pair of defensive touchdowns handed to them by the Roadrunners. Given how bad UTSA’s defense is, they were never going to get enough stops to make it a game after that.
Remember the whole “non-conference game amidst the league schedule” premise we’ve mentioned above? Navy went to South Bend last week, and didn’t even play star quarterback Blake Horvath — out with a late-announced “upper body injury,” opting to make sure he’s healthy for a home game with one of the other one-loss teams in the American.
Getting this spread up to USF -10.5 on the road requires an upgrade that puts the Bulls on par with a mid-tier SEC team. In a game I have projected closer to a touchdown, we’ll take the points, assuming that Horvath is back and able to run a challenging triple-option offense that South Florida hasn’t seen since a 28-7 loss to Navy last season.
Pick: Navy +10.5
No. 14 Virginia at Duke (-6.5, 57.5)
The health of Morris, and his ability to return from concussion-like symptoms, is paramount to the handicap of this game because Duke’s weakness this season has been in pass defense. That’s something Morris might be able to take advantage of, but having seen UVA’s offense with backup QB Daniel Kaelin, they can’t without him.
Duke falling out of ACC co-favorite status with Georgia Tech can only be due to the bad look of losing to UConn, but the Huskies have one of the better passers in the country in Joe Fagnano, and Duke lost the turnover battle by three.
If we excuse the weird spot, and don’t take the Blue Devils’ rating down at all, I have this projected at -10 before touching the Cavs’ rating once we get news about Morris’ availability. Which means, even if the line drops with a clean bill of health, there’s value on Duke regardless.
Pick:Duke -6.5
No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 4 Alabama (-6, 45.5)
Before the season, the lookahead line for this game allowed us to bet on the Sooners at +13.5, as noted in our aforementioned “Games of the Year” article. At the current line of around a touchdown, that’s a valuable ticket worth holding.
Speaking of potential bets, Oklahoma was +500 to make the CFP before the season, and with a win in Tuscaloosa, the Sooners would have a compelling resume even if they ended up dropping a game to Missouri or LSU (though they should be heavily favored over both).
Alabama just played a game similar to this on Saturday, against a defense-first LSU team, running for just 2.2 yards per carry, and we should see a similarly close result this week. By success rate allowed, Oklahoma’s defense is much better than almost every other SEC team, and even after filtering out Alabama’s only loss of the season, the Crimson Tide’s offensive success rate isn’t much better than the Sooners’.
As a result, if you weren’t the early bird, getting nearly a touchdown is still worth a bet.
Pick: Oklahoma +6
No. 11 Texas at No. 5 Georgia (-6.5, 48.5)
Fundamentally, instead of betting on Georgia in games where they’re lined in this range of around a touchdown and sweating whether or not they’ll punch in a late score (at Auburn, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Florida), you’re better off waiting to see if they start slow, and back them live or at halftime.
As far as projections go, this line is exactly as expected, so a bet truly comes down to how you feel about the matchup. Arch Manning and the Longhorns were able to jump out ahead of Vanderbilt thanks to some quick, wide-receiver screens that the Commodores couldn’t cover, a week after one good offensive quarter in Starkville that both helped to boost their overall offensive numbers. Texas will have to do a little bit more between the hedges in Athens.
Given Texas’ offensive success rate in road games at Ohio State, Florida, Kentucky, and Mississippi State, Georgia won’t be dealing with the level of offense they’ve had trouble with (Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss) and should be able to outlast the Longhorns.
Pick: Georgia -6
Kennesaw State (-3, 52.5) at Jacksonville State
The last two remaining undefeated teams in Conference USA match up, with the winner almost definitely finding its way into the conference title game.
Kennesaw came into the season with a win total of 3.5, and the Owls have shown that they’re the best team in the bottom-half of CUSA, but championship level? That’s still to be determined.
The Owls’ five conference wins have come against teams that are a combined 7-15 in their other league games. This run has come with a significant ratings boost, leading up to their most challenging game since Week 2.
Jacksonville State has a similar resume, but with an early-season win over Liberty that showed the transition from Rich Rodriguez to Charles Kelly might be smoother than originally thought. Freshman Caden Creel has excelled after taking over at QB, with three games of more than 100 rushing yards, and is the perfect complement to Cam Cook — the nation’s leading rusher.
While Kennesaw State’s bowl-eligible season has been a thorough success, being the road favorite against the defending conference champions is giving them too much credit.
Pick: Jacksonville State +3
Boise State at San Diego State (-3, 41.5)
The top two teams in the Mountain West go at it amongst an unusually large selection of late-night games this Saturday. Beyond the records, this one stands out because of the intrigue of how Boise State will look without injured starting QB Maddux Madsen.
Two weeks ago, the Broncos would have been between -3 and -3.5 on the road, so we’ve seen the favorite flip from one field goal to another, presumably due to the pessimism over one-time walk-on Max Cutworth being forced into action.
Boise State’s received a significant downgrade in its betting market power rating, but the Aztecs (widely picked to finish ninth in the Mountain West), who had seen theirs rise extensively, came back to Earth after getting blown out 38-6 in Hawai’i.
With two weeks to get Cutworth ready for the biggest game of their season, we’ll take the field goal with Boise, trusting the coaching staff and roster to support the inexperienced QB.
Pick: Boise State +3
You can find more on college football’s biggest games and best bets each week from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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