College football national championship picks: Predicting 1 favorite and 1 sleeper for the 2026 title

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We did it people. After an offseason of seemingly never-ending court drama and congressional musings, we’ve finally made it to the start of the college football season. Actual toe is finally meeting actual leather as we begin the march towards the College Football Playoff National Championship Game in Las Vegas on January 25.

This is Year 3 of the 12-team era for the CFP and so far, the Big Ten has reigned supreme in the expanded field. Ohio State took home the championship favorite in 2024 and after falling short in the quarterfinals of last year’s bracket, it opens this new campaign as the title favorite with another loaded roster featuring superstar wideout Jeremiah Smith. Following OSU in 2025 was Indiana, whose perfect 16-0 run completed the most remarkable two-year turnaround for a program that we’ve ever witnessed. While key pieces like Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza are gone to the NFL, Curt Cignetti has restocked his roster with weapons capable of pulling off a three-peat. And then there’s Oregon, who is still trying to break through for the program’s very first natty with Heisman hopeful Dante Moore returning at quarterback.

The Big Ten’s title streak has caused some consternation in SEC country and there’s a handful of contenders that could put the juggernaut league back on top. Georgia is once again primed to return to the top of the sport after falling in last year’s quarterfinals and Texas is going all in with projected No. 1 pick Arch Manning entering his senior year. LSU was the main character of the offseason and all eyes will be on Lane Kiffin’s group through the year while the likes of Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M will look to build off their playoff appearances from a season ago.

Of course, the title race won’t be fully monopolized by the “Big 2” leagues as a number of teams on the outside could take a shot at the crown. There are high hopes for Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame squad to get the job done and there’s some extra motivation after being left out of the field entirely last year. Miami came up a touchdown short against Indiana in last year’s title game and is hoping that the addition of Darian Mensah to an already stacked roster gets it over the top. And even with no Brendan Sorsby, Texas Tech should have enough defensive firepower to once again run the Big 12 and be a tough out in the 12-team bracket this winter.

2026 CFP National Championship Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Favorite Pick

Texas Longhorns

Texas went from the preseason No. 1 team in the AP poll last season to outright missing the College Football Playoff with a “disappointing” 10-3 campaign. To ensure that doesn’t happen again, Steve Sarkisian and staff have pushed all their chips in with a roster that could potentially have four players taken in the top 10 of next year’s NFL Draft.

Arch Manning returns with a full year as the starter under his belt and he has even more weapons now with the likes of Cam Coleman, Hollywood Smothers, and Raleek Brown arriving to Austin in the offseason along with potential top tackle prospect Trevor Goosby anchoring the offensive line. Defensively, All-American edge rusher Colin Simmons returns to cause more mayhem after a 12-sack season in 2025 and is now being guided by Will Muschamp as his new defensive coordinator.

The Longhorns will of course have to survive another tough SEC slate before even getting to the CFP, where it will then have to go toe-to-toe with the Ohio State’s and Notre Dame’s of the world. With the amount of talent and depth that they’ve assembled for this year’s team, I like their chances to go the distance.

Sleeper Pick

SMU Mustangs

Sure, any number of familiar faces teams listed above can be considered a sleeper. LSU, Ole Miss, USC, Michigan, etc., are all teams once could make a case for jumping into the contender tier and making a deep playoff run. Heck, Ole Miss nearly made the semifinals last year right after its head coach left town for a hated rival! So what about a program that’s been in the 12-team field recently and is juuust hanging out on the national periphery. Can I point you in the direction of Dallas?

SMU has been quietly excellent since jumping up to the ACC in 2024, finishing as the league runner-up and making the CFP in its first year before coming up a game short of another conference title game appearance last season. Quarterback Kevin Jennings returns for his third year as the starter and has plenty of weapons in his arsenal with All-ACC tackle PJ Williams anchoring a veteran offensive line. That’s matched by a defense that is ranked in the top 30 in preseason SP+, creating a good balance for head coach Rhett Lashlee.

The Mustangs notably have just two games against preseason top-25 teams on the schedule: a September 24 road matchup against No. 2 Louisville and a November 21 road tilt against No. 4 Notre Dame. If they get rolling early, that late-season primetime spot against the Fighting Irish is the exact type of spot that could propel them into serious contender status should they win. Just saying, keep an eye out for the Pony Express.

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